Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actor in a Play Nomination Predictions

Next up is the category for best lead actor in a play! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actor in a Play:

This category has the most potential nominees of the leading acting categories, and as such it has the most that have no real shot. The bottom 4 names on the list didn't get good enough reviews to stand a real chance. The next 5 received decent notices, but likely not quite the caliber needed to steal a nomination, though James Earl Jones might get some veteran votes, and Sam Rockwell managed to nab a drama league nomination.

That leaves 7 actors fighting it out for the 5 spots. Mark Strong should be considered a lock and the early front-runner, especially since he won the Olivier for this role last year. After that its very much a toss up for the remaining slots. Frank Langella is a veteran with great reviews on the Father so he'll most likely make it in. Gabriel Byrne is in a similar situation for Long Day's Journey Into Night. Tim Pigott-Smith got solid reviews, but his show is closed while some of his competitors are still running. Ferguson has the star power, but his comedic role might be overlooked for dramatic powerhouses. Whishaw and Daniels also received positive notices for their roles, but not quite at the level of Strong's. Any of these names could easily grab one of the 5 spots.

Mark Strong (A View From the Bridge): 90%
Frank Langella (The Father): 75%
Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III): 55%
Ben Whishaw (The Crucible): 48%
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Fully Committed): 45%
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Gabriel Byrne (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 40%
Jeff Daniels (Blackbird): 35%
Sam Rockwell (Fool for Love): 15%
James Earl Jones (The Gin Game): 15%
Forest Whitaker (Hughie): 10%
Jim Parsons (An Act of God): 10%
Matt Ryan (Therese Raquin): 5%
Bruce Willis (Misery): 3%
Al Pacino (China Doll): 1%
Clive Owen (Old Times): 1%
Matthew Broderick (Sylvia): 1%

Mark Strong and the cast of A View From the Bridge