Tony Watch 2016: Best Music Nomination Predictions

For our next category we have decided to put score and orchestrations together, partially because the two are often won by the same person, and partially because orchestrations is one of the hardest awards to predict nominations for unless you have a lot of musical expertise, especially because reviews rarely discuss them.

Best Score:

Like with the award for best book, this category featured a few shows at the top, a few at the bottom, and a whole lot of middle of the road potential nominees. Hamilton is a lock for a nomination, and unless critical reception is much more negative than audience reception, Waitress is as well. Amazing Grace is out, as is the Crucible, and Allegiance most likely will be as well. That leaves four shows to fight over the last two spots.

School of Rock's score was well received, but most people agreed that the strongest numbers were the ones that remained from the movie. Will the new songs be enough? Bright Star, meanwhile, had very mixed reviews for the score, partially due to its bluegrass nature. American Psycho has received polarizing reviews so far, and Tuck Everlasting has been called too "pop-like". This really could come down to how the nominating committee feels about pop, bluegrass, techno and rock music.

Hamilton (Lin-Manuel Miranda): 99%
Waitress (Sara Bareilles): 80%
Bright Star (Steve Martin and Edie Brickell): 35%
School of Rock (Andrew Lloyd Webber and Glen Slater): 40%
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American Psycho (Duncan Sheik): 28%
Tuck Everlasting (Chris Miller and Nathan Tysen): 22%
Allegiance (Jay Kuo): 3%
The Crucible (Philip Glass): 1%
Amazing Grace (Christopher Smith): 1%

A Scene from Hamilton

Best Orchestrations:

As was mentioned at the top of the post, orchestrations are a tough one. Really all that is easy to say is that Hamilton will likely be nominated, which you can say for almost every category this year. After that it's a bit of a toss up. She Loves Me and Shuffle Along both stand a solid chance, as do the revivals of The Color Purple and Fiddler on the Roof. Some big names might also get the nod, like the Estefans for On Your Feet, Webber for School of Rock, or Sara Bareilles for Waitress. Even American Psycho, Tuck Everlasting or Bright Star could be in the mix here.

Hamilton (Alex Lacamoire): 80%

She Loves Me (Larry Hochman): 55%

The Color Purple (Joseph Joubert): 40%

Waitress (Sara Bareilles): 35%

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School of Rock (Andrew Lloyd Webber): 33%
Bright Star (August Eriksmoen): 32%
On Your Feet! (Gloria and Emilio Estefan): 30%

Shuffle Along (Daryl Waters): 30%
Fiddler on the Roof (Ted Sperling): 30%

American Psycho (Duncan Sheik): 24%

Tuck Everlasting (John Clancy): 20%

Spring Awakening (Duncan Sheik): 10%

Dames at Sea (Jonathan Tunick): 5%

Allegiance (Lynne Shankel): 2%

Disaster! (Joseph Joubert): 1%

Amazing Grace (Kenny Seymour): 1%

A Scene from Hamilton