Tony Watch 2016: Lighting Nomination Predictions

Now that all of this season's shows have started previews, its time to begin looking at potential Tony nominees! To start off, here are our predictions for the two lighting design awards!


Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

This category is much more competitive than last year, especially because there is only one real "lock". If Howell Binkley doesn't grab a nomination from Hamilton it would be a real upset. Spring Awakening and American Psycho also seem quite likely to get a nod, especially after receiving both drama desk and outer critics nominations. After that it is a wide open race, with School of Rock, The Color Purple, Bright Star, Fiddler, Waitress, On Your Feet, Tuck Everlasting, Shuffle Along and She Loves Me all standing a reasonable chance at getting a nomination. It truly could go to anyone.

Nomination Odds:

Hamilton (Howell Binkley): 85%

American Psycho (Justin Townsend): 60%
Spring Awakening (Ben Stanton): 50%
The Color Purple (Jane Cox): 42%

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Waitress (Kenneth Posner): 40%
Tuck Everlasting (Kenneth Posner): 37%

She Loves Me (Donald Holder): 35%

On Your Feet! (Kenneth Posner): 33%

Shuffle Along (Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer): 30%
Bright Star (Japhy Weideman): 25%
School of Rock (Natasha Katz): 20%
Fiddler on the Roof (Donald Holder): 17%

Allegiance (Howell Binkley): 3%

Disaster! (Jeff Croiter): 2%
Amazing Grace (Ken Billington): 1%
Dames at Sea (Ken Billington): 1%

A Scene from Hamilton

Best Lighting Design of a Play:

Last year a couple of shows (Curious Incident and Wolf Hall) were heavily favored in this category. This season there are definitely some favorites, but its nowhere near as lopsided.
Therese Raquin and The Crucible are the most likely choices for this award, as both received very positive notices for their disturbing lighting, which created an uneasy environment reflecting the tone of the shows. However, neither of these shows snagged a Drama Desk or Outer Critics nomination which is worrisome.

Below these two, the next tier is The Humans, King Charles III, A View From the Bridge, Eclipsed , Hughie and Long Days Journey Into Night, all of which have a very realistic shot at a nomination. In addition, 3 of those shows snagged a lighting nomination for one of the other awards. After that there is a very steep drop off, and any of the remaining shows scoring a nomination would be surprising, though The Father or Blackbird might be able to swing some votes.

Therese Raquin (Keith Parham): 75%
The Crucible (Jan Versweyveld): 74%
The Humans (Justin Townsend): 55%
Long Day's Journey Into Night (Natasha Katz): 48%
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A View From the Bridge (Jan Versweyveld): 45%
King Charles III (Jon Clark): 45%
Eclipsed (Jennifer Schriever): 42%
Hughie (Neil Austin): 40%
The Father (Donald Holder): 25%
Blackbird (Brian MacDevitt): 25%
Old Times (Japhy Weideman): 18%
Fool For Love (Justin Townsend): 18%
Fully Committed (Ben Stanton): 15%
Misery (David Weiner): 5%
Noises Off (Jane Cox): 5%
The Gin Game (Jules Fisher): 2%
An Act of God (Hugh Vanstone): 2%
Sylvia (Japhy Weideman): 1%
China Doll (Russell H. Champa): 1%
Our Mother's Brief Affair (Peter Kaczorowski): 1%

A Scene from Therese Raquin