Tony Watch 2016: Best Musical Nomination Predictions

Up next we have our predictions for best new musical. Because of the number of musical revivals that opened this year, there will be at least 4 nominees in this category, with potential for a fifth if there is a small enough difference in votes between the fourth and fifth options.

Best Musical:

Usually this category is saved for last because it is the most highly anticipated. However, due to the juggernaut that is Hamilton, the category is much less exciting this year. But while the award itself is all but already won, the nominations are anything but set. Of the 11 new musicals this season, 8 have a realistic shot at the nomination (sorry Allegiance, Amazing Grace and Disaster!).

Waitress seems the next most likely to be nominated, but after that its completely up in the air. School of Rock got positive reviews but no raves. Tuck and American Psycho got a mix of very positive and fairly negative reviews. Bright Star and On Your Feet! both got fairly middle of the road reviews, and Shuffle Along has a lot of potential, but preview audiences have been less than impressed, and the show is pushing to be included as a revival instead.

Complicating matters further, Shuffle Along hasn't been eligible for most other awards this season, and Hamilton was eligible last season, which has led to all 6 of the other major contenders getting a Drama League nomination, and 5 of the 6 getting and Outer Critics nomination (School of Rock was left out. It really is up in the air right now, and this category might end up with 5 nominees.

Hamilton: 99%
Waitress: 70%
Shuffle Along, Or, The Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed: 44%
School of Rock: 40%
----------------------------------------------
American Psycho: 38%
Tuck Everlasting: 35%
On Your Feet!: 25%
Bright Star: 20%
Disaster!: 5%
Allegiance: 1%
Amazing Grace: 1%

A scene from Hamilton