Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actress in a Play Nomination Predictions

Now it's time for the lead performer awards, and we're starting with the best lead actress in a play category! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:

This is probably the most straight forward of the lead performer categories. Lupita Nyong'o and Jessica Lange are all but locks. Michelle Williams and Sophie Okonedo also seem like they'll have a solid shot. Nicola Walker used to a worrisome pick, but her and Lange are the only two to be nominated for every other major award, which makes her chances better. It also helps that Knightley, Metcalf and Ashford were all in shows that received far inferior reviews.


Lupita Nyong'o (Eclipsed): 85%
Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 80%
Michelle Williams (Blackbird): 45%
Sophie Okonedo (The Crucible): 45%
Nicola Walker (A View From the Bridge): 40%
----------------------------------------------
Kiera Knightley (Therese Raquin): 20%
Laurie Metcalf (Misery): 15%
Annaleigh Ashford (Sylvia): 12%
Nina Arianda (Fool for Love): 8%
Cicely Tyson (The Gin Game): 5%
Linda Lavin (Our Mother's Brief Affair): 3%
Kelly Reilly (Old Times): 1%
Eve Best (Old Times): 1%

Lupita Nyong'o in Eclipsed