Tony Watch 2016: Best Director of a Play Nomination Predictions

Next up on our award predictions we have the directing awards! To start we'll look at the play directors!

Best Director of a Play:

The best director of a play award is usually well aligned with the best play and best play revival categories, because direction is so important to the production as a whole. This means that if the show received poor overall reviews and isn't likely to score a best play or best play revival nomination, it is also unlikely to grab a best director nomination. This is the case for the bottom 9 shows on the list.

There are three directors that are essentially locks. Ivo van Hove is the strong frontrunner for his avant-garde View From the Bridge. Ruper Goold and Joe Mantello should also be considered basically locks, as either not making it would be a major upset. The last two slots are more up for grabs, though only a few shows stands a real chance.

 Therese Raquin and The Father received good reviews, but likely not enough to push their directors over the other contenders. Blackbird and Crucible were also well received, but not nearly as well as The Humans or View, and its doubtful either director will score a double nomination. That leaves three directors fighting for the last two spots. Liesl Tommy got strong reviews for Eclipsed but hasn't received nominations from the other awards, which was a bit surprising. Long Day's Journey hasn't opened yet, but word of mouth is strong for it. Jeremy Herrin may be overlooked as his show was a limited run and a comedy. Any of the 3 has a realistic shot.

Ivo van Hove, A View From the Bridge: 99%

Joe Mantello, The Humans: 85%

Rupert Goold, King Charles III: 75%
Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed: 65%
Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night: 55%

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Jeremy Herrin, Noises Off: 46%

Ivo van Hove, The Crucible: 20%

Joe Mantello, Blackbird: 15%

Doug Hughes, The Father: 12%

Evan Cabnet, Therese Raquin: 8%

Daniel Aukin, Fool for Love: 3%

Leonard Foglia, The Gin Game: 3%

Joe Mantello, An Act of God: 1%

Will Frears, Misery: 1%

Douglas Hodge, Old Times: 1%

Michael Grandage, Hughie: 1%

Pam McKinnon, China Doll: 1%

Lynne Meadow, Our Mother's Brief Affair: 1%

Daniel Sullivan, Sylvia: 1%

A Scene from A View From the Bridge