Best Director of a Musical:
This was a very strong year for musicals, and to go along with this it was a strong year for directors. There's only one real lock, which as usual is Hamilton. Also the bottom 5 directors have almost no chance at a nomination. Besides that the competition is pretty open.
Ruper Goold is close to a lock, but there's a small chance the committee won't want to nominate him in musical and play. John Doyle is a likely pick too, as his direction for The Color Purple revival received fantastic reviews.
The last couple slots have some big names fighting for them. Michael Arden is an up and coming director who took a unique look at Spring Awakening, and could be rewarded for that. Diane Paulus, Scott Ellis, Walter Bobbie and Bartlett Sher are all well known directors with well received shows. If Shuffle Along goes well George C. Wolfe will receive a lot of the credit, and could easily score one as well. Casey Nicholaw and Laurence Conner both will likely be overlooked for their middle of the road shows, but have an outside shot.
Thomas Kail, Hamilton: 99%
Rupert Goold, American Psycho: 70%
John Doyle, The Color Purple: 65%
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening: 60%
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me: 45%
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George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along: 40%
Bartlett Sher, Fiddler on the Roof: 37%
Diane Paulus, Waitress: 35%
Laurence Connor, School of Rock: 15%
Casey Nicholaw, Tuck Everlasting: 15%
Walter Bobbie, Bright Star: 10%
Jerry Mitchell, On Your Feet!: 3%
Jack Plotnick, Disaster!: 2%
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea: 1%
Stafford Arima, Allegiance: 1%
Gabriel Barre, Amazing Grace: 1%
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| A Scene from Hamilton |
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