Tony Watch 2016: Best Featured Actor in a Play Nomination Predictions

Next up for our 2016 Tony nomination predictions is the featured actor in a play category! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Featured Actor in a Play:

Realistically the top 17 actors here are the only ones with any sort of shot at the nomination. The other names are merely on here as a formality. Usually with the awards for featured actor we look towards other awards (Drama Leagues, Outer Critics, Drama Desks)  to identify potential frontrunners. This year the only two people to be nominated for both a Drama League and Outer Critics award are Reed Birney and Michael Shannon, which makes them the most likely nominees. Shannon even grabbed a Drama Desk nomination to go with it.

Like with featured actress, many people have very low chances purely because of the amount of potential nominees from their shows. The men from noises off and A View From the Bridge will likely run into this problem, as none had real stand out reviews. Same for most of the men from King Charles III, though Richard Goulding has good reviews and an Olivier nomination for the role helping his case, which gives him a much better shot. The men from The Crucible will also face this problem. Jim Norton grabbed an Outer Critics nomination, but will he be able to beat out cast-mate Ciaran Hinds, or even Bill Camp, for the Tony nom?

Other names that will be in the conversation include Gabriel Ebert, John Gallagher Jr. and Robert Sella, who grabbed a surprising Outer Critics nomination.


Reed Birney (The Humans): 80%
Michael Shannon (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 75%
Richard Goulding (King Charles III): 47%
Gabriel Ebert (Therese Raquin): 40%
Ciaran Hinds (The Crucible): 35%
----------------------------------------------
Robert Sella (Sylvia): 30%
Bill Camp (The Crucible): 30%
Campbell Scott (Noises Off): 27%
Jim Norton (The Crucible): 23%
John Gallagher Jr. (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 18%
Adam James (King Charles III): 13%
David Furr (Noises Off): 12%
Russell Tovey (A View From the Bridge): 10%
Oliver Chris (King Charles III): 9%
Michael Gould (A View From the Bridge): 7%
Michael Zegen (A View From the Bridge): 5%
Jeremy Shamos (Noises Off): 4%
Arian Moayed (The Humans): 2%
Rob McClure (Noises Off): 2%
Jason Butler Harner (The Crucible): 1%
Brian Avers (The Father): 1%
Daniel Davis (Noises Off): 1%
Gordon Joseph Weiss (Fool for Love): 1%
Christopher Fitzgerald- (An Act of God): 1%
Christopher Denham (China Doll): 1%
Frank Wood (Hughie): 1%
Tom Pelphrey (Fool for Love): 1%
Greg Keller (Our Mother's Brief Affair): 1%
Tim Kazurinsky (An Act of God): 1%
John Procaccino (Our Mother's Brief Affair): 1%

Reed Birney in The Humans