Tony Watch 2016: Best Revival of a Play Nomination Predictions

Next up for Tony Watch we'll be taking a look at the two revival categories, starting with Best Revival of a Play. Because of the number of play revivals that opened this year, there will be at least 4 nominees in this category, with potential for a fifth if there is a small enough difference in votes between the fourth and fifth options.

Best Revival of a Play:

With only 11 potential nominees, this category is much more straight forward than many of the acting categories. A View From the Bridge and Long Day's Journey are all but locks at this point, and it would be surprising if one of those two doesn't eventually win the Tony. On the other end of the spectrum, Hughie, Sylvia and Old Times have no real shot. The Gin Game, Fool for Love and Fully Committed also have relatively little chance of being nominated.

That leaves three shows fighting it our for the last two slots, which is where things get tricky. Noises Off got fairly strong reviews, but is a light hearted comedy, and wasn't really any different than any other production of the show. The Crucible took a new twist on an old show, but not everyone liked the avant-garde take. Blackbird was well received but less popular at the box office, which has caused much less word of mouth for the show. Any of these shows could realistically make it in.

A View From the Bridge: 95%
Long Day's Journey into Night: 85%
Blackbird: 55%
The Crucible: 45%
----------------------------------------------
Noises Off: 38%
Fully Committed: 20%
Fool for Love: 10%
The Gin Game: 5%
Old Times: 3%
Sylvia: 2%
Hughie:1%

A scene from A View From the Bridge