Tony Watch 2016: Best Featured Actress in a Play Nomination Predictions

We're finally on to the acting nominations! To start we're taking a look at the featured awards, which are always hard because of the sheer number of potential nominees. We'll begin with featured actress in a play. In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Featured Actress in a Play:

Part of what makes this category complicated this year is that there were a couple shows that had very strong casts, but not a role written to be a stand out featured role. The Humans, Eclipsed and Noises Off all have multiple female roles that could potentially get nominated, and there is a question of whether the nominators will want to put in two women from the same show with such a strong field of potential nominees.

The top 13 women in this category have a realistic shot at getting nominated. Lauren Klein and Cassie Beck will likely be left out due to better reviews for their Humans cast mates, but Klein received a Lortel award nomination over any of the Humans or Eclipsed girls, so you can never be sure. Pascale Armand and Sarah Steele will likely face the same problem, though they stand a slightly better chance. If a show snags two nominees,  the second would most likely be Eclipsed's Zainab Jah or Noises Off's Andrea Martin. Keep in mind that the Outer Critics Circle nominated all 3 of these Eclipsed girls, so anything is possible.

Saycon Sengbloh, Jayne Houdyshell, Megan Hilty and Saoirse Ronan seem like the most likely nominees. All four got very positive reviews, and most have some name recognition. That leaves a few actresses from closed shows fighting it out for the last slot. Phoebe Fox and Lydia Wilson both scored nominations at last year's Oliviers, which helps their cases here, and Judith Light is a three time Tony nominee and two time winner, so she's definitely a force to be reckoned with.

Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans): 75%
Saycon Sengbloh (Eclipsed): 70%
Megan Hilty (Noises Off): 60%
Saoirse Ronan (The Crucible): 55%
Judith Light (Therese Raquin): 42%
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Phoebe Fox (A View from the Bridge): 40%
Lydia Wilson (King Charles III): 30%
Zainab Jah (Eclipsed): 22%
Andrea Martin (Noises Off): 20%
Pascale Armand (Eclipsed): 15%
Sarah Steele (The Humans): 12%
Cassie Beck (The Humans): 10%
Lauren Klein (The Humans): 10%
Tavi Gevinson (The Crucible): 4%
Kathryn Erbe (The Father): 4%
Tracee Chimo (Noises Off): 2%
Margot Leicester (King Charles III): 1%
Kate Jennings Grant (Noises Off): 1%
Tafline Steen (King Charles III): 1%
Akosua Busia (Eclipsed): 1%
Julie White (Sylvia): 1%
Kate Arrington (Our Mother's Brief Affair): 1%
Hannah Cabell (The Father): 1%

Jayne Houdyshell and Lauren Klein in The Humans