Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actress in a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our next category, leading actress in a musical, is full of powerhouse women, and just like the last couple years should be a tight battle for the award. In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:

Like the last couple of years, this category could be close come Tony time. Cynthia Erivo seems to have the lead right now, but Laura Benanti and Jessie Mueller both are right up there with her. All three seem like very likely nominees, and it would be a true upset if any of them missed out on a nomination.

On the other end of the spectrum, Erin Mackey, Eloise Kropp and Sandra Mae Frank all have no chance, giving fine performances in long closed shows. Sarah Charles Lewis and Lea Salonga likely won't make it either, though both received fairly good reviews.

That leaves four women fighting for two spots. Phillipa Soo has one of the most subtle, underrated parts in Hamiton, and though she was widely loved by critics, this is a chance to honor some non-Hamilton performers which could hurt her chances. Carmen Cusack got some rave reviews, but her musical itself didn't do so well, which could be a problem. Ana Villafane got great reviews in her Broadway debut, but in a very packed year she might lose out to some veteran actresses. Lastly we have Audra, who hasn't missed out on a Tony nomination since 2004, being nominated for her last three performances, and winning the last two. Is this the year she misses out?


Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple): 80%
Laura Benanti (She Loves Me): 65%
Jessie Mueller (Waitress): 65%
Phillipa Soo (Hamilton): 42%
Carmen Cusack (Bright Star): 40%
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Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along): 35%
Ana Villafane (On Your Feet): 25%
Lea Salonga (Allegiance): 8%
Sarah Charles Lewis (Tuck Everlasting): 3%
Sandra Mae Frank (Spring Awakening): 1%
Eloise Kropp (Dames at Sea): 1%
Erin Mackey (Amazing Grace): 1%

Cynthia Erivo in The Color Purple