Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actor in a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our final category before the nominations are announced is leading actor in a musical. In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actor in a Musical:

This category has a few different tiers of performers. The bottom tier is full of young talents with their first big broadway roles (Telly Leung, Austin McKenzie and Cary Tedder) along with Josh Young who has been inconsistent. The next tier is young Broadway actors with some experience under their belts that just haven't quite hit the elite level yet (Josh Segarra and Andrew Keenan-Bolger.)

That leaves six men competing for five spots. Danny Burstein, Leslie Odom Jr. and Lin-Manuel Miranda all seem like they will be nominated, and it would be a big upset if any were left out. The last three will be competing for the last slots, and any of the three could make it. Levi, Walker and Brightman all received very good reviews in positively received shows. Brightman and Walker benefit from having the sole lead in their shows, while Levi shares the spotlight with Laura Benanti, but Levi's show received better roles overall. This category might even end up with a sixth nominee with how close the race looks.

Danny Burstein (Fiddler on the Roof): 90%

Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton): 70%

Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton): 65%

Benjamin Walker (American Psycho): 48%

Alex Brightman (School of Rock): 45%

----------------------------------------------

Zachary Levi (She Loves Me): 40%

Andrew Keenan-Bolger (Tuck Everlasting): 15%

Josh Segarra (On Your Feet): 8%

Austin P. McKenzie (Spring Awakening): 5%

Telly Leung (Allegiance): 2%

Cary Tedder (Dames at Sea): 1%

Josh Young (Amazing Grace): 1%

Danny Burstein in Fiddler on the Roof

Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actress in a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our next category, leading actress in a musical, is full of powerhouse women, and just like the last couple years should be a tight battle for the award. In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:

Like the last couple of years, this category could be close come Tony time. Cynthia Erivo seems to have the lead right now, but Laura Benanti and Jessie Mueller both are right up there with her. All three seem like very likely nominees, and it would be a true upset if any of them missed out on a nomination.

On the other end of the spectrum, Erin Mackey, Eloise Kropp and Sandra Mae Frank all have no chance, giving fine performances in long closed shows. Sarah Charles Lewis and Lea Salonga likely won't make it either, though both received fairly good reviews.

That leaves four women fighting for two spots. Phillipa Soo has one of the most subtle, underrated parts in Hamiton, and though she was widely loved by critics, this is a chance to honor some non-Hamilton performers which could hurt her chances. Carmen Cusack got some rave reviews, but her musical itself didn't do so well, which could be a problem. Ana Villafane got great reviews in her Broadway debut, but in a very packed year she might lose out to some veteran actresses. Lastly we have Audra, who hasn't missed out on a Tony nomination since 2004, being nominated for her last three performances, and winning the last two. Is this the year she misses out?


Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple): 80%
Laura Benanti (She Loves Me): 65%
Jessie Mueller (Waitress): 65%
Phillipa Soo (Hamilton): 42%
Carmen Cusack (Bright Star): 40%
----------------------------------------------
Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along): 35%
Ana Villafane (On Your Feet): 25%
Lea Salonga (Allegiance): 8%
Sarah Charles Lewis (Tuck Everlasting): 3%
Sandra Mae Frank (Spring Awakening): 1%
Eloise Kropp (Dames at Sea): 1%
Erin Mackey (Amazing Grace): 1%

Cynthia Erivo in The Color Purple

Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actor in a Play Nomination Predictions

Next up is the category for best lead actor in a play! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actor in a Play:

This category has the most potential nominees of the leading acting categories, and as such it has the most that have no real shot. The bottom 4 names on the list didn't get good enough reviews to stand a real chance. The next 5 received decent notices, but likely not quite the caliber needed to steal a nomination, though James Earl Jones might get some veteran votes, and Sam Rockwell managed to nab a drama league nomination.

That leaves 7 actors fighting it out for the 5 spots. Mark Strong should be considered a lock and the early front-runner, especially since he won the Olivier for this role last year. After that its very much a toss up for the remaining slots. Frank Langella is a veteran with great reviews on the Father so he'll most likely make it in. Gabriel Byrne is in a similar situation for Long Day's Journey Into Night. Tim Pigott-Smith got solid reviews, but his show is closed while some of his competitors are still running. Ferguson has the star power, but his comedic role might be overlooked for dramatic powerhouses. Whishaw and Daniels also received positive notices for their roles, but not quite at the level of Strong's. Any of these names could easily grab one of the 5 spots.

Mark Strong (A View From the Bridge): 90%
Frank Langella (The Father): 75%
Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III): 55%
Ben Whishaw (The Crucible): 48%
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Fully Committed): 45%
----------------------------------------------
Gabriel Byrne (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 40%
Jeff Daniels (Blackbird): 35%
Sam Rockwell (Fool for Love): 15%
James Earl Jones (The Gin Game): 15%
Forest Whitaker (Hughie): 10%
Jim Parsons (An Act of God): 10%
Matt Ryan (Therese Raquin): 5%
Bruce Willis (Misery): 3%
Al Pacino (China Doll): 1%
Clive Owen (Old Times): 1%
Matthew Broderick (Sylvia): 1%

Mark Strong and the cast of A View From the Bridge

Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actress in a Play Nomination Predictions

Now it's time for the lead performer awards, and we're starting with the best lead actress in a play category! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:

This is probably the most straight forward of the lead performer categories. Lupita Nyong'o and Jessica Lange are all but locks. Michelle Williams and Sophie Okonedo also seem like they'll have a solid shot. Nicola Walker used to a worrisome pick, but her and Lange are the only two to be nominated for every other major award, which makes her chances better. It also helps that Knightley, Metcalf and Ashford were all in shows that received far inferior reviews.


Lupita Nyong'o (Eclipsed): 85%
Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 80%
Michelle Williams (Blackbird): 45%
Sophie Okonedo (The Crucible): 45%
Nicola Walker (A View From the Bridge): 40%
----------------------------------------------
Kiera Knightley (Therese Raquin): 20%
Laurie Metcalf (Misery): 15%
Annaleigh Ashford (Sylvia): 12%
Nina Arianda (Fool for Love): 8%
Cicely Tyson (The Gin Game): 5%
Linda Lavin (Our Mother's Brief Affair): 3%
Kelly Reilly (Old Times): 1%
Eve Best (Old Times): 1%

Lupita Nyong'o in Eclipsed

Tony Watch 2016: Best Musical Nomination Predictions

Up next we have our predictions for best new musical. Because of the number of musical revivals that opened this year, there will be at least 4 nominees in this category, with potential for a fifth if there is a small enough difference in votes between the fourth and fifth options.

Best Musical:

Usually this category is saved for last because it is the most highly anticipated. However, due to the juggernaut that is Hamilton, the category is much less exciting this year. But while the award itself is all but already won, the nominations are anything but set. Of the 11 new musicals this season, 8 have a realistic shot at the nomination (sorry Allegiance, Amazing Grace and Disaster!).

Waitress seems the next most likely to be nominated, but after that its completely up in the air. School of Rock got positive reviews but no raves. Tuck and American Psycho got a mix of very positive and fairly negative reviews. Bright Star and On Your Feet! both got fairly middle of the road reviews, and Shuffle Along has a lot of potential, but preview audiences have been less than impressed, and the show is pushing to be included as a revival instead.

Complicating matters further, Shuffle Along hasn't been eligible for most other awards this season, and Hamilton was eligible last season, which has led to all 6 of the other major contenders getting a Drama League nomination, and 5 of the 6 getting and Outer Critics nomination (School of Rock was left out. It really is up in the air right now, and this category might end up with 5 nominees.

Hamilton: 99%
Waitress: 70%
Shuffle Along, Or, The Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed: 44%
School of Rock: 40%
----------------------------------------------
American Psycho: 38%
Tuck Everlasting: 35%
On Your Feet!: 25%
Bright Star: 20%
Disaster!: 5%
Allegiance: 1%
Amazing Grace: 1%

A scene from Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Best Play Nomination Predictions

Next up in our Tony Watch series is the best play category. Because of the number of musicals that opened this year, there will be at least 4 nominees in this category, with potential for a fifth if there is a small enough difference in votes between the fourth and fifth options.

Best Play:

This category is about as straight forward as the best musical revival category when it comes to nominations. After solid reviews for The Father it would take a major upset for a show like Therese Raquin or An Act of God to get a nomination. However this will be one of the most exciting categories for the award itself, as all four shows have a realistic shot at the award, something that can't be said for almost any other category.

Eclipsed: 82%
The Humans: 80%
King Charles III: 78%
The Father: 65%
----------------------------------------------
Therese Raquin: 30%
An Act of God: 20%
Misery: 1%
China Doll: 1%
Our Mother's Brief Affair: 1%

A scene from Eclipsed

Tony Watch 2016: Best Revival of a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our next segment is the predictions for best revival of a musical. Because of the number of musical revivals that opened this year, there will be at least 3 nominees in this category, with potential for a fourth if there is a small enough difference in votes between the third and fourth options.

Best Revival of a Musical:

This is probably the most straight forward of all the categories. Dames at Sea has no chance at a nomination. She Loves Me, The Color Purple and Fiddler on the Roof are all but locks. Spring Awakening's only chance is drawing enough votes to warrant a fourth nomination, but that seems very unlikely at this point.


She Loves Me: 90%
The Color Purple: 85%
Fiddler on the Roof: 70%
----------------------------------------------
Spring Awakening: 25%
Dames at Sea: 1%

A scene from She Loves Me

Tony Watch 2016: Best Revival of a Play Nomination Predictions

Next up for Tony Watch we'll be taking a look at the two revival categories, starting with Best Revival of a Play. Because of the number of play revivals that opened this year, there will be at least 4 nominees in this category, with potential for a fifth if there is a small enough difference in votes between the fourth and fifth options.

Best Revival of a Play:

With only 11 potential nominees, this category is much more straight forward than many of the acting categories. A View From the Bridge and Long Day's Journey are all but locks at this point, and it would be surprising if one of those two doesn't eventually win the Tony. On the other end of the spectrum, Hughie, Sylvia and Old Times have no real shot. The Gin Game, Fool for Love and Fully Committed also have relatively little chance of being nominated.

That leaves three shows fighting it our for the last two slots, which is where things get tricky. Noises Off got fairly strong reviews, but is a light hearted comedy, and wasn't really any different than any other production of the show. The Crucible took a new twist on an old show, but not everyone liked the avant-garde take. Blackbird was well received but less popular at the box office, which has caused much less word of mouth for the show. Any of these shows could realistically make it in.

A View From the Bridge: 95%
Long Day's Journey into Night: 85%
Blackbird: 55%
The Crucible: 45%
----------------------------------------------
Noises Off: 38%
Fully Committed: 20%
Fool for Love: 10%
The Gin Game: 5%
Old Times: 3%
Sylvia: 2%
Hughie:1%

A scene from A View From the Bridge

Tony Watch 2016: Best Featured Actor in a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our next category is the best featured actor in a musical category! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

Normally we get some help with the featured categories from other award shows, but the drama leagues only allowing two nominations per show and the outer critics and drama desk awards throwing out some strange nominations (Roger Bart? Baylee Litrell?) have told us only one thing. Daveed Diggs is the frontrunner.

We listed more performers in this category than any others, but as with featured actress most of them don't stand a real chance. With how competitive the field is you can essentially eliminate the bottom 19 on the list. Above that, in the middle tier, are actors who gave good performances in smaller, likely overlooked roles such as Robert Lenzi in Tuck Everlasting and Isaiah Johnson in The Color Purple.

The top 13 have the best chances for a nomination. Daveed Diggs is all but a lock, but after that it gets complicated. Shuffle Along and Hamilton both have a plethora of potential nominees. This hurts the odds for performers like Joshua Henry and Okieriete Onaodowan, but it wouldn't be surprising to see multiple performers from either show nominated. The men from Waitress are also in the mix, but are much less likely to score multiple nods, or any at all for that matter. The remaining performers are Terrence Mann and Gavin Creel, both acclaimed performers who could pull an upset, and Nicholas Barasch who wasn't even on our board to start, but after drama desk and outer critics nominations he has a real shot to grab a nomination. We'll make our picks because we have to, but this category seems prime for some upset nominations.


Daveed Diggs (Hamilton): 85%
Christopher Fitzgerald (Waitress): 50%
Christopher Jackson (Hamilton): 40%
Brian Stokes Micthell (Shuffle Along): 35%
Jonathan Groff (Hamilton): 33%
----------------------------------------------
Billy Porter (Shuffle Along): 30%
Brandon Victor Dixon (Shuffle Along): 30%
Gavin Creel (She Loves Me): 28%
Terrence Mann (Tuck Everlasting): 22%
Joshua Henry (Shuffle Along): 18%
Nicholas Barasch (She Loves Me): 17%
Okieriete Onaodowan (Hamilton): 15%
Nick Cordero (Waitress): 15%
Michael Park (Tuck Everlasting): 15%
Drew Gehling (Waitress): 13%
Anthony Ramos (Hamilton): 13%
Isaiah Johnson (The Color Purple): 10%
Michael McGrath (She Loves Me): 10%
Robert Lenzi (Tuck Everlasting): 9%
Paul Alexander Nolan (Bright Star): 8%
Drew Moerlin (American Psycho): 8%
Adam Kantor (Fiddler on the Roof): 6%
Adam Pascal (Disaster!): 6%
Baylee Littrell (Disaster!): 4%
A.J. Shively (Bright Star): 4%
Daniel N. Durant (Spring Awakening): 4%
Roger Bart (Disaster!): 3%
Chuck Cooper (Amazing Grace): 2%
Michael K. Lee (Allegiance): 2%
George Takei (Allegiance): 2%
Brooks Ashmanskas (Shuffle Along): 2%
Fred Applegate (Tuck Everlasting): 2%
Kyle Scatliffe (The Color Purple): 1%
Dakin Matthews (Waitress): 1%
Eric Anderson (Waitress): 1%
Kevin Chamberlin (Disaster!): 1%
Michael Mulheren (Brigh Star): 1%
Tom Hewitt (Amazing Grace): 1%
John Bolton (Dames at Sea): 1%
Seth Rudetsky (Disaster!): 1%

Daveed Diggs and the cast of Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Best Featured Actress in a Musical Nomination Predictions

Next up is the featured actress in a musical category! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

The featured in a musical categories are very deep this year. The bottom 16 or so women on this list have essentially no chance, but did enough to be in the conversation. A small group above that has a little chance, but not enough to mention by name. Only the top 15 have any sort of a real chance.

There are a few definite frontrunners. Renee Elise Goldsberry is definitely the favorite, with Jane Krakowski, Jennifer Hudson and Danielle Brooks all having very strong cases as well. Hudson and Brooks might face the issue of being castmates, but both have strong enough performances and reviews that it might not be an issue.

Most of the rest of the top tier have some issue that they will have a hard time overcoming. Krysta Rodriguez and Lesli Margherita both good performances, but their shows are closed. Andrea Burns, Jennifer Damiano and Jasmine Cephas Jones also did well, but in very small roles, which might not get them enough attention. Kimiko Glenn and Keala Settle might split any votes for Waitress, though one of them might sneak in.

The most likely people to be fighting for the last spot are Jennifer Simard, Helene Yorke, Carolee Carmello and Jessica Hecht. All 4 are veteran, respected actresses with meaty roles, and any could reasonably be the nominee, or steal a spot from one of the front runners.


Renee Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton): 80%
Jennifer Hudson (The Color Purple): 65%
Jane Krakowski (She Loves Me): 65%
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple): 50%
Helene Yorke (American Psycho): 40%
----------------------------------------------
Jennifer Simard (Disaster!): 35%
Carolee Carmello (Tuck Everlasting): 25%
Jessica Hecht (Fiddler on the Roof): 20%
Keala Settle (Waitress): 18%
Jasmine Cephas Jones (Hamilton): 15%
Kimiko Glenn (Waitress): 15%
Lesli Margherita (Dames at Sea): 15%
Andrea Burns (On Your Feet!): 10%
Jennifer Damiano (American Psycho): 8%
Krysta Rodriguez (Spring Awakening): 5%
Samantha Massell (Fiddler on the Roof): 3%
Alice Ripley (American Psycho): 3%
Lacretta Nicole (Disaster!): 2%
Kerry Butler (Disaster!): 2%
Sierra Boggess (School of Rock): 2%
Emily Padgett (Bright Star): 1%
Adrienne Warren (Shuffle Along): 1%
Dee Hoty (Bright Star): 1%
Katie Rose Clarke (Allegiance): 1%
Faith Prince (Disaster!): 1%
Alexandra Silber (Fiddler on the Roof): 1%
Rachel York (Disaster!): 1%
Amber Iman (Shuffle Along): 1%
Melanie Moore (Fiddler on the Roof): 1%
Hannah Elless (Bright Star): 1%
Mara Davi (Dames at Sea): 1%
Felicia Boswell (Shuffle Along): 1%
Alma Cuervo (On Your Feet!): 1%
Laiona Michelle (Amazing Grace): 1%
Alix Korey (Fiddler on the Roof): 1%
Harriett D. Foy (Amazing Grace): 1%

Renee Elise Goldsberry with Philippa Soo and Jasmine Cephas Jones in Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Best Featured Actor in a Play Nomination Predictions

Next up for our 2016 Tony nomination predictions is the featured actor in a play category! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Featured Actor in a Play:

Realistically the top 17 actors here are the only ones with any sort of shot at the nomination. The other names are merely on here as a formality. Usually with the awards for featured actor we look towards other awards (Drama Leagues, Outer Critics, Drama Desks)  to identify potential frontrunners. This year the only two people to be nominated for both a Drama League and Outer Critics award are Reed Birney and Michael Shannon, which makes them the most likely nominees. Shannon even grabbed a Drama Desk nomination to go with it.

Like with featured actress, many people have very low chances purely because of the amount of potential nominees from their shows. The men from noises off and A View From the Bridge will likely run into this problem, as none had real stand out reviews. Same for most of the men from King Charles III, though Richard Goulding has good reviews and an Olivier nomination for the role helping his case, which gives him a much better shot. The men from The Crucible will also face this problem. Jim Norton grabbed an Outer Critics nomination, but will he be able to beat out cast-mate Ciaran Hinds, or even Bill Camp, for the Tony nom?

Other names that will be in the conversation include Gabriel Ebert, John Gallagher Jr. and Robert Sella, who grabbed a surprising Outer Critics nomination.


Reed Birney (The Humans): 80%
Michael Shannon (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 75%
Richard Goulding (King Charles III): 47%
Gabriel Ebert (Therese Raquin): 40%
Ciaran Hinds (The Crucible): 35%
----------------------------------------------
Robert Sella (Sylvia): 30%
Bill Camp (The Crucible): 30%
Campbell Scott (Noises Off): 27%
Jim Norton (The Crucible): 23%
John Gallagher Jr. (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 18%
Adam James (King Charles III): 13%
David Furr (Noises Off): 12%
Russell Tovey (A View From the Bridge): 10%
Oliver Chris (King Charles III): 9%
Michael Gould (A View From the Bridge): 7%
Michael Zegen (A View From the Bridge): 5%
Jeremy Shamos (Noises Off): 4%
Arian Moayed (The Humans): 2%
Rob McClure (Noises Off): 2%
Jason Butler Harner (The Crucible): 1%
Brian Avers (The Father): 1%
Daniel Davis (Noises Off): 1%
Gordon Joseph Weiss (Fool for Love): 1%
Christopher Fitzgerald- (An Act of God): 1%
Christopher Denham (China Doll): 1%
Frank Wood (Hughie): 1%
Tom Pelphrey (Fool for Love): 1%
Greg Keller (Our Mother's Brief Affair): 1%
Tim Kazurinsky (An Act of God): 1%
John Procaccino (Our Mother's Brief Affair): 1%

Reed Birney in The Humans

Tony Watch 2016: Best Featured Actress in a Play Nomination Predictions

We're finally on to the acting nominations! To start we're taking a look at the featured awards, which are always hard because of the sheer number of potential nominees. We'll begin with featured actress in a play. In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Featured Actress in a Play:

Part of what makes this category complicated this year is that there were a couple shows that had very strong casts, but not a role written to be a stand out featured role. The Humans, Eclipsed and Noises Off all have multiple female roles that could potentially get nominated, and there is a question of whether the nominators will want to put in two women from the same show with such a strong field of potential nominees.

The top 13 women in this category have a realistic shot at getting nominated. Lauren Klein and Cassie Beck will likely be left out due to better reviews for their Humans cast mates, but Klein received a Lortel award nomination over any of the Humans or Eclipsed girls, so you can never be sure. Pascale Armand and Sarah Steele will likely face the same problem, though they stand a slightly better chance. If a show snags two nominees,  the second would most likely be Eclipsed's Zainab Jah or Noises Off's Andrea Martin. Keep in mind that the Outer Critics Circle nominated all 3 of these Eclipsed girls, so anything is possible.

Saycon Sengbloh, Jayne Houdyshell, Megan Hilty and Saoirse Ronan seem like the most likely nominees. All four got very positive reviews, and most have some name recognition. That leaves a few actresses from closed shows fighting it out for the last slot. Phoebe Fox and Lydia Wilson both scored nominations at last year's Oliviers, which helps their cases here, and Judith Light is a three time Tony nominee and two time winner, so she's definitely a force to be reckoned with.

Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans): 75%
Saycon Sengbloh (Eclipsed): 70%
Megan Hilty (Noises Off): 60%
Saoirse Ronan (The Crucible): 55%
Judith Light (Therese Raquin): 42%
----------------------------------------------
Phoebe Fox (A View from the Bridge): 40%
Lydia Wilson (King Charles III): 30%
Zainab Jah (Eclipsed): 22%
Andrea Martin (Noises Off): 20%
Pascale Armand (Eclipsed): 15%
Sarah Steele (The Humans): 12%
Cassie Beck (The Humans): 10%
Lauren Klein (The Humans): 10%
Tavi Gevinson (The Crucible): 4%
Kathryn Erbe (The Father): 4%
Tracee Chimo (Noises Off): 2%
Margot Leicester (King Charles III): 1%
Kate Jennings Grant (Noises Off): 1%
Tafline Steen (King Charles III): 1%
Akosua Busia (Eclipsed): 1%
Julie White (Sylvia): 1%
Kate Arrington (Our Mother's Brief Affair): 1%
Hannah Cabell (The Father): 1%

Jayne Houdyshell and Lauren Klein in The Humans

Tony Watch 2016: Best Director of a Musical Nomination Predictions

The next segment in the Tony Watch 2016 series is Best Director of a Musical

Best Director of a Musical:

This was a very strong year for musicals, and to go along with this it was a strong year for directors. There's only one real lock, which as usual is Hamilton. Also the bottom 5 directors have almost no chance at a nomination. Besides that the competition is pretty open.

Ruper Goold is close to a lock, but there's a small chance the committee won't want to nominate him in musical and play. John Doyle is a likely pick too, as his direction for The Color Purple revival received fantastic reviews.

The last couple slots have some big names fighting for them. Michael Arden is an up and coming director who took a unique look at Spring Awakening, and could be rewarded for that. Diane Paulus, Scott Ellis, Walter Bobbie and Bartlett Sher are all well known directors with well received shows.  If Shuffle Along goes well George C. Wolfe will receive a lot of the credit, and could easily score one as well. Casey Nicholaw and Laurence Conner both will likely be overlooked for their middle of the road shows, but have an outside shot.

Thomas Kail, Hamilton: 99%
Rupert Goold, American Psycho: 70%
John Doyle, The Color Purple: 65%
Michael Arden, Spring Awakening: 60%
Scott Ellis, She Loves Me: 45%
----------------------------------------------
George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along: 40%
Bartlett Sher, Fiddler on the Roof: 37%
Diane Paulus, Waitress: 35%
Laurence Connor, School of Rock: 15%
Casey Nicholaw, Tuck Everlasting: 15%
Walter Bobbie, Bright Star: 10%
Jerry Mitchell, On Your Feet!: 3%
Jack Plotnick, Disaster!: 2%
Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea: 1%
Stafford Arima, Allegiance: 1%
Gabriel Barre, Amazing Grace: 1%

A Scene from Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Best Director of a Play Nomination Predictions

Next up on our award predictions we have the directing awards! To start we'll look at the play directors!

Best Director of a Play:

The best director of a play award is usually well aligned with the best play and best play revival categories, because direction is so important to the production as a whole. This means that if the show received poor overall reviews and isn't likely to score a best play or best play revival nomination, it is also unlikely to grab a best director nomination. This is the case for the bottom 9 shows on the list.

There are three directors that are essentially locks. Ivo van Hove is the strong frontrunner for his avant-garde View From the Bridge. Ruper Goold and Joe Mantello should also be considered basically locks, as either not making it would be a major upset. The last two slots are more up for grabs, though only a few shows stands a real chance.

 Therese Raquin and The Father received good reviews, but likely not enough to push their directors over the other contenders. Blackbird and Crucible were also well received, but not nearly as well as The Humans or View, and its doubtful either director will score a double nomination. That leaves three directors fighting for the last two spots. Liesl Tommy got strong reviews for Eclipsed but hasn't received nominations from the other awards, which was a bit surprising. Long Day's Journey hasn't opened yet, but word of mouth is strong for it. Jeremy Herrin may be overlooked as his show was a limited run and a comedy. Any of the 3 has a realistic shot.

Ivo van Hove, A View From the Bridge: 99%

Joe Mantello, The Humans: 85%

Rupert Goold, King Charles III: 75%
Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed: 65%
Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night: 55%

----------------------------------------------

Jeremy Herrin, Noises Off: 46%

Ivo van Hove, The Crucible: 20%

Joe Mantello, Blackbird: 15%

Doug Hughes, The Father: 12%

Evan Cabnet, Therese Raquin: 8%

Daniel Aukin, Fool for Love: 3%

Leonard Foglia, The Gin Game: 3%

Joe Mantello, An Act of God: 1%

Will Frears, Misery: 1%

Douglas Hodge, Old Times: 1%

Michael Grandage, Hughie: 1%

Pam McKinnon, China Doll: 1%

Lynne Meadow, Our Mother's Brief Affair: 1%

Daniel Sullivan, Sylvia: 1%

A Scene from A View From the Bridge

Tony Watch 2016: Best Choreography Nomination Predictions

We continue our look at the creative team nominations with the choreographers!

Best Choreography:

This race is likely going to come down to Andy Blankenbuehler and Savion Glover, and both should be considered locks for nominations. The rest of the field gets complicated though. There are some definite non-contenders that can be eliminated easily, as their shows are not very dance heavy (the bottom 5 shows). The rest of the pack all has a realistic shot though, especially since this category will have five nominees.

Dames at Sea may drop and being closed for a few months, though if they get a nomination it would be in choreography, as the show was very dance heavy. Fiddler's choreography got positive reviews, but much of it was borrowed from previous productions which may hurt its chances. On Your Feet! is filled with exciting dances and seems like it will have a good chance at a nom. Spring Awakening's incorporation of sign language gives it a unique angle, which may push it into a nomination as well. American Psycho, Tuck Everlasting and She Loves Me also have large stretches of intense choreography, and could be fighting it out for a nomination.

Andy Blankenbuehler, Hamilton: 95%

Savion Glover, Shuffle Along: 90%

Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet: 68%

Spencer Liff, Spring Awakening: 50%
Lynne Page, American Psycho: 40%

----------------------------------------------

Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea: 37%
Casey Nicholaw, Tuck Everlasting: 35%

Warren Carlyle, She Loves Me: 35%

Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof: 33%

Josh Rhodes, Bright Star: 10%
JoAnn M. Hunter, School of Rock: 7%

John Doyle, The Color Purple: 5%

Andrew Palermo, Allegiance: 2%

JoAnn M. Hunter, Disatser!: 2%

Christopher Gattelli, Amazing Grace: 1%

A Scene From Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Best Music Nomination Predictions

For our next category we have decided to put score and orchestrations together, partially because the two are often won by the same person, and partially because orchestrations is one of the hardest awards to predict nominations for unless you have a lot of musical expertise, especially because reviews rarely discuss them.

Best Score:

Like with the award for best book, this category featured a few shows at the top, a few at the bottom, and a whole lot of middle of the road potential nominees. Hamilton is a lock for a nomination, and unless critical reception is much more negative than audience reception, Waitress is as well. Amazing Grace is out, as is the Crucible, and Allegiance most likely will be as well. That leaves four shows to fight over the last two spots.

School of Rock's score was well received, but most people agreed that the strongest numbers were the ones that remained from the movie. Will the new songs be enough? Bright Star, meanwhile, had very mixed reviews for the score, partially due to its bluegrass nature. American Psycho has received polarizing reviews so far, and Tuck Everlasting has been called too "pop-like". This really could come down to how the nominating committee feels about pop, bluegrass, techno and rock music.

Hamilton (Lin-Manuel Miranda): 99%
Waitress (Sara Bareilles): 80%
Bright Star (Steve Martin and Edie Brickell): 35%
School of Rock (Andrew Lloyd Webber and Glen Slater): 40%
----------------------------------------------
American Psycho (Duncan Sheik): 28%
Tuck Everlasting (Chris Miller and Nathan Tysen): 22%
Allegiance (Jay Kuo): 3%
The Crucible (Philip Glass): 1%
Amazing Grace (Christopher Smith): 1%

A Scene from Hamilton

Best Orchestrations:

As was mentioned at the top of the post, orchestrations are a tough one. Really all that is easy to say is that Hamilton will likely be nominated, which you can say for almost every category this year. After that it's a bit of a toss up. She Loves Me and Shuffle Along both stand a solid chance, as do the revivals of The Color Purple and Fiddler on the Roof. Some big names might also get the nod, like the Estefans for On Your Feet, Webber for School of Rock, or Sara Bareilles for Waitress. Even American Psycho, Tuck Everlasting or Bright Star could be in the mix here.

Hamilton (Alex Lacamoire): 80%

She Loves Me (Larry Hochman): 55%

The Color Purple (Joseph Joubert): 40%

Waitress (Sara Bareilles): 35%

----------------------------------------------

School of Rock (Andrew Lloyd Webber): 33%
Bright Star (August Eriksmoen): 32%
On Your Feet! (Gloria and Emilio Estefan): 30%

Shuffle Along (Daryl Waters): 30%
Fiddler on the Roof (Ted Sperling): 30%

American Psycho (Duncan Sheik): 24%

Tuck Everlasting (John Clancy): 20%

Spring Awakening (Duncan Sheik): 10%

Dames at Sea (Jonathan Tunick): 5%

Allegiance (Lynne Shankel): 2%

Disaster! (Joseph Joubert): 1%

Amazing Grace (Kenny Seymour): 1%

A Scene from Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Best Book Nomination Predictions

Now that we've taken a look at the design awards, we're moving on to the creative awards! To start, we're going to take a look at the potential nominees for best book.

Best Book:

A few of the spots in this category are still up for grabs, as shows like Tuck Everlasting, Shuffle Along and Waitress are still fine-tuning their books as they prepare to officially open. However there's a lot that we can say for sure. For example, Hamilton is definitely in. It not being nominated, as in most categories, would be a major upset. In addition, we know that Amazing Grace, Allegiance and On Your Feet! have basically no chance.

Of the remaining shows Waitress seems like the closest thing to a lock. After that it will very much depend how development goes. Shuffle Along seemed strong, but cancelled previews are never a good sign for a show, and many have said the show needs to be edited down and focused, which would be an issue with the book. Tuck Everlasting has been compared to Finding Neverland in the sense that some find it too showy and poppy, while others love the magical story. School of Rock received praise, but doesn't deviate far from the movie of the same name. Bright Star's book got mixed reviews, and American Psycho is getting polarizing reviews, but has apparently stayed very true to the book. Really if any of these shows can shape up they have a solid shot at a nomination, so check back as we'll be updating our predictions as reviews come out.

Hamilton (Lin-Manuel Miranda): 95%
Waitress (Jessie Nelson): 75%
School of Rock (Julian Fellowes): 45%
American Psycho (Roberto Aguirre-Sacasa): 37%
----------------------------------------------
Shuffle Along... (George C. Wolfe): 35%
Tuck Everlasting (Claudia Shear): 30%
Bright Star (Edie Brickell): 30%
On Your Feet (Alexander Dinelaris): 10%
Allegiance (Marc Acito): 1%
Amazing Grace (Christopher Smith and Arthur Giron): 1%

A Scene from Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Scenic Design Nomination Predictions

The next segment in our Tony Watch 2016 segment is the two scenic design awards!

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

Scenic Design might be the best chance for a show to knock off Hamilton in the design categories. That's not to say Hamilton's design isn't fantastic, and its probably still the frontrunner, but there are a few other power players. Tuck Everlasting features a forest, a cabin, a carnival, and a scene in the treetops, most of which involve some exciting moving set pieces. She Loves Me features a very elaborate and elegantly designed perfume shop, with surprising moving pieces, along with a few other pieces such as a zany restaurant and a bedroom. Either could take the award.

After that it's hard to say. Waitress, American Psycho and Shuffle Along all have exciting sets and stand a solid chance. Other contenders include the stripped down Color Purple set, a rustic Fiddler set with a modern flair, and the simple but beautiful Spring Awakening set. Any of these could snag that last spot.

Hamilton (David Korins): 90%

She Loves Me (David Rockwell): 80%
Tuck Everlasting (Walter Spangler): 66%

American Psycho (Es Devlin): 45%

----------------------------------------------

Waitress (Scott Pask): 42%
The Color Purple (John Doyle): 40%

Fiddler on the Roof (Michael Yeargan): 35%

Shuffle Along, Or... (Santo Loquasto): 25%

Spring Awakening (Dane Laffrey & Lucy Mackinnon): 15%

School of Rock (Anna Louizos): 12%

On Your Feet (David Rockwell): 10%

Bright Star (Eugene Lee): 10%

Allegiance (Darrel Maloney & Donyale Werle): 3%

Disaster! (Tobin Orst): 2%

Dames at Sea (Anna Louizos): 1%

Amazing Grace (Edward Pierce): 1%

A Scene from Hamilton

Best Scenic Design for a Play:

This is one of the trickiest categories of the season, because there has been a lot of very good, but very different set design. The two shows that stand out as frontrunners are Therese Raquin, which had an onstage pool and elegant scenery, and The Humans, which had a very well constructed two story house on stage. After that it gets tricky.

Eclipsed has a very artfully created, but very simple set reflecting the war camp the girls are held in, which may not be flashy enough. The two sets from this year's avant-garde revivals (The Crucible and A View From the Bridge) were confusing, but definitely made a statement. Misery and Hughie both had beautifully designed pieces, but nothing that stands out, and both were in very forgettable shows. Noises Off had an elaborate set as the play requires, but nothing particularly new. Other shows, like Blackbird Long Day's Journey and The father, are simply a very well designed room, which again may not have enough appeal to draw a nomination. Any of these pieces, and even a few more, could score one of the last two spots, so look out for an upset here.

Therese Raquin (Beowulf Boritt): 85%

The Humans (David Zinn): 85%

Eclipsed (Clint Ramos): 55%

Hughie (Christopher Oram): 41%

----------------------------------------------

Noises Off (Derek McLane): 40%
Misery (David Korins): 38%

The Father (Scott Pask): 35%

Long Day's Journey Into Night (Tom Pye): 35%

The Crucible (Jan Versweyveld): 30%

A View From the Bridge (Jan Versweyveld): 28%

Fully Committed (Derek McLane): 17%
Blackbird (Scott Pask): 25%

King Charles III (Tom Scutt): 25%

Old Times (Christine Jones): 20%

The Gin Game (Riccardo Hernandez): 15%

An Act of God (Scott Pask): 5%

Fool for Love (Dane Laffrey): 5%

Sylvia (David Rockwell): 3%

China Doll (Derek McLane): 1%

Our Mother's Brief Affair (Santo Loquasto): 1%

A Scene from Therese Raquin

Tony Watch 2016: Costume Nomination Predictions

The next segment in our Tony Watch 2016 segment is the two costuming awards!

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

This category is usually a pretty straight forward one, where you can guess a few of the nominees. As with most categories, Hamilton is the favorite to win this year and should score a nomination. She Loves Me and Shuffle Along also have exciting, period based costumes and seem like logical nomination options. After that, it depends which direction the committee wants to go. On Your Feet has very flashy dazzling costumes, Tuck Everlasting's costumes are varied and very relevant to the movement and message of the show, While Fiddler, Bright Star and American Psycho have less showy but very well designed costume pieces.


Hamilton (Paul Tazewell): 80%
She Loves Me (Jeff Mahshie): 75%
Shuffle Along... (Ann Roth): 75%
On Your Feet (ESosa): 50%
----------------------------------------------
American Psycho (Katrina Lindsay): 48%
Bright Star (Jane Greenwood): 40%
Tuck Everlasting (Gregg Barnes): 37%
Fiddler on the Roof (Catherine Zuber): 35%
School of Rock (Anna Louizos): 20%
Dames at Sea (David C. Woolard): 15%
Disaster! (William Ivey Long): 10%
Spring Awakening (Susan Hilferty): 5%
The Color Purple (Ann Hould-Ward): 2%
Amazing Grace (Toni-Leslie James): 2%
Allegiance (Alejo Vietti): 2%

A scene from Hamilton

Best Costume Design of a Play:
Though there are no plays with elegant period costumes, like Wolf Hall last year, there are still some frontrunners in this category. The bottom 7 potential nominees all have very understated costuming, while the next 7 have costumes that are relevant to the period or style of the show, but not showy enough to attract much nomination attention.

King Charles III and Therese Raquin are the frontrunners, with bigger showier costume pieces. Eclipsed is on the other end of the spectrum, with very raggedy costumes for the poor women of the show. The Crucible has a mix of period and modern costumes that are incorporated into the direction, and Noises Off had the most colorful pieces of the season. Any of the 5 could grab a nomination depending what the voters are looking for. Usually we'd get some help from other awards, but the only show to get a costume in a play nomination was King Charles at the Outer Critics Awards.


King Charles III (Tom Scutt): 80%
Therese Raquin (Jane Greenwood): 80%
Eclipsed (Clint Ramos): 65%
The Crucible (Wojciech Dziedzic): 60%
----------------------------------------------
Noises Off (Michael Krass): 45%
Long Day's Journey Into Night (Jane Greenwood): 25%
The Father (Catherine Zuber): 25%
The Humans (Sarah Laux): 15%
The Gin Game (Riccardo Hernandez): 12%
An Act of God (David Zinn): 10%
A View From the Bridge (Ann D'Huys): 10%
Sylvia (Ann Roth): 10%
Fool For Love (Anita Yavich): 5%
Old Times (Constance Hoffman): 4%
Blackbird (Ann Roth): 1%
Hughie (Christopher Oram): 1%
China Doll (Jess Goldstein): 1%
Misery (Ann Roth): 1%
Our Mother's Brief Affair (Tom Broecker): 1%
Fully Committed (Sarah Laux): 1%

A scene from King Charles III

Tony Watch 2016: Lighting Nomination Predictions

Now that all of this season's shows have started previews, its time to begin looking at potential Tony nominees! To start off, here are our predictions for the two lighting design awards!


Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

This category is much more competitive than last year, especially because there is only one real "lock". If Howell Binkley doesn't grab a nomination from Hamilton it would be a real upset. Spring Awakening and American Psycho also seem quite likely to get a nod, especially after receiving both drama desk and outer critics nominations. After that it is a wide open race, with School of Rock, The Color Purple, Bright Star, Fiddler, Waitress, On Your Feet, Tuck Everlasting, Shuffle Along and She Loves Me all standing a reasonable chance at getting a nomination. It truly could go to anyone.

Nomination Odds:

Hamilton (Howell Binkley): 85%

American Psycho (Justin Townsend): 60%
Spring Awakening (Ben Stanton): 50%
The Color Purple (Jane Cox): 42%

----------------------------------------------

Waitress (Kenneth Posner): 40%
Tuck Everlasting (Kenneth Posner): 37%

She Loves Me (Donald Holder): 35%

On Your Feet! (Kenneth Posner): 33%

Shuffle Along (Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer): 30%
Bright Star (Japhy Weideman): 25%
School of Rock (Natasha Katz): 20%
Fiddler on the Roof (Donald Holder): 17%

Allegiance (Howell Binkley): 3%

Disaster! (Jeff Croiter): 2%
Amazing Grace (Ken Billington): 1%
Dames at Sea (Ken Billington): 1%

A Scene from Hamilton

Best Lighting Design of a Play:

Last year a couple of shows (Curious Incident and Wolf Hall) were heavily favored in this category. This season there are definitely some favorites, but its nowhere near as lopsided.
Therese Raquin and The Crucible are the most likely choices for this award, as both received very positive notices for their disturbing lighting, which created an uneasy environment reflecting the tone of the shows. However, neither of these shows snagged a Drama Desk or Outer Critics nomination which is worrisome.

Below these two, the next tier is The Humans, King Charles III, A View From the Bridge, Eclipsed , Hughie and Long Days Journey Into Night, all of which have a very realistic shot at a nomination. In addition, 3 of those shows snagged a lighting nomination for one of the other awards. After that there is a very steep drop off, and any of the remaining shows scoring a nomination would be surprising, though The Father or Blackbird might be able to swing some votes.

Therese Raquin (Keith Parham): 75%
The Crucible (Jan Versweyveld): 74%
The Humans (Justin Townsend): 55%
Long Day's Journey Into Night (Natasha Katz): 48%
----------------------------------------------
A View From the Bridge (Jan Versweyveld): 45%
King Charles III (Jon Clark): 45%
Eclipsed (Jennifer Schriever): 42%
Hughie (Neil Austin): 40%
The Father (Donald Holder): 25%
Blackbird (Brian MacDevitt): 25%
Old Times (Japhy Weideman): 18%
Fool For Love (Justin Townsend): 18%
Fully Committed (Ben Stanton): 15%
Misery (David Weiner): 5%
Noises Off (Jane Cox): 5%
The Gin Game (Jules Fisher): 2%
An Act of God (Hugh Vanstone): 2%
Sylvia (Japhy Weideman): 1%
China Doll (Russell H. Champa): 1%
Our Mother's Brief Affair (Peter Kaczorowski): 1%

A Scene from Therese Raquin