Tony Watch 2015: Score, Book and Orchestrations

Once again we're going to try to fit 3 categories into one post. The focus will be on some elements of this year's musicals, namely Best Score, Best Book and Best Orchestrations.

Best Score:

There are 8 candidates for Best Score this year:

Doctor Zhivago

Finding Neverland

Fun Home

Honeymoon in Vegas

It Shoulda Been You

Something Rotten

The Last Ship

The Visit

So far it looks like there are two main tiers in the best score race. The top three shows have seperated themselves from the rest of the pack. That first tier is Fun Home, Something Rotten and The Visit, all of which seem very likely to be nominated, unless the reviews sharply contrast public opinion. That leaves one spot left for the other five contenders.

Finding Neverland received mixed reviews for its score, with most agreeing that some songs landed very well while other fell flat or sounded 'poppy'. Honeymoon in Vegas has history behind it, with Jason Robert Brown already having won two Tonys for best score. The Last Ship has the celebrity power of Sting, who threw himself whole-heartedly into the world of Broadway this season. It Shoulda Been You got mild reviews for score, but managed to sneak into the nominations for the Outer Critics Circle Awards over some of the other shows. Last, and possibly least, Doctor Zhivago's score has received little positive attention in its reviews. Which of these shows will manage to take that last spot? Or will one of the big three be usurped? 

Nomination Odds:

Fun Home (Jeanine Tessori & Lisa Kron): 95%

Something Rotten (Wayne & Carey Kirkpatrick): 85%

The Visit (John Kander & Fred Ebb): 75%

The Last Ship (Sting): 50%

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Finding Neverland (Gary Barlow & Eliot Kennedy): 37%

Honeymoon in Vegas (Jason Robert Brown): 31%

Doctor Zhivago (Michael Korie & Amy Powers): 15%

It Shoulda Been You (Barbara Anselmi & Brian Hargrove): 12%

Ring of Keys from Fun Home, performed by Sydney Lucas

Best Book of a Musical:

There are 10 Candidates for Best Book of a Musical this year:

An American in Paris

Doctor Zhivago

Finding Neverland

Fun Home

Holler if Ya Hear Me

Honeymoon in Vegas

It Shoulda Been You

Something Rotten

The Last Ship

The Visit

In addition to these 10, there's a chance that Gigi's new book has enough changes for it to be considered for best book, but even if it is it is unlikely it will have any chance at a nomination, so lets just leave it out.

This race will most likely come down to Something Rotten and Fun Home, which are both very likely nominees. On the other side, Holler If Ya Hear me, The Last Ship and Doctor Zhivago all have been slammed for their Books, and are very doubtful nominees (though The Last Ship scored an Outer Critics Circle nomination)

That leaves the other 5 shows fighting for 2 slots. The Visit is the most likely nominee of this group, as it has the name recognition of Terrence McNally. Honeymoon in Vegas and Finding Neverland both met with some criticism of their books in reviews, but are still in contention. An American in Paris has received mostly approval for the changes made when adapting the movie for broadway, and It Shoulda Been You's book was one of its stronger elements. Any of these 5 could conceivably be nominated.

Nomination Odds:

Fun Home (Lisa Kron): 95%
Something Rotten! (Karey Kirkpatrick & John O'Farrell):90%
The Visit (Terrence McNally):70%
It Shoulda Been You (Brian Hargrove): 43%
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An American in Paris (Craig Lucas): 37%
Finding Neverland (James Graham): 35%
Honeymoon in Vegas (Andrew Bergman): 21%
The Last Ship (John Logan & Brian Yorkey): 5%
Doctor Zhivago (Michael Weller): 2%
Holler If Ya Hear Me (Todd Kreidler): 1%

It Shoulda Been You (Book by Brian Hargrove)

Best Orchestrations:

All of this year's New musical ands revivals of musicals are eligible for this year's Best Orchestrations Awards. This award may be the hardest to predict, as a large chunk of the Broadway community still doesn't know what Orchestrations are. But we'll give it a shot anyway.

As with most of the awards, Holler if Ya Hear Me and Gigi are at the bottom, with It Shoulda Been You joining them. The most likely nominee is Jason Robert Brown for Honeymoon in Vegas, having won the award last year. Other shows likely to be in the running are On The Town, Something Rotten, The Last Ship, An American in Paris, possibly Fun Home and The King and I, and amazingly enough even Doctor Zhivago has a shot at this one.

Nomination Odds:

Honeymoon in Vegas (Jason Robert Brown, Don Sebesky, Larry Blank, Charlie Rosen): 75%
Something Rotten! (Larry Hochman): 55%
An American in Paris (Christopher Austin): 45%
On The Town (Bruce Coughlin): 40%
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Fun Home (John Clancy): 35%
The Last Ship (Rob Mathes): 30%
Doctor Zhivago (Danny Troob): 30%
The King and I (Robert Russell Bennett): 25%
On The Twentieth Century (Christopher Austin): 15%
The Visit (Larry Hochman):15%
Side Show (Harold Wheeler):15%
Finding Neverland (Simon Hale): 15%
It Shoulda Been You (Doug Besterman): 3%

Gigi (August Eriksmoen): 1%
Holler If Ya Hear Me (Daryl Waters): 1%

Honeymoon in Vegas (Orchestrations by Jason Robert Brown, Don Sebesky, Larry Blank and Charlie Rosen)