Tony Watch 2015: Featured Performers in a Musical

Though slightly less numerous than those in plays, Featured Actor and Actress in a musical are still very difficult to predict. There will be some front runners, but there could also be a few very unexpected people sliding into a nomination. But as always, we'll give it our best. As with the play awards, we'll include at least 15 nominees to give a fairly large scope of possibilities.

Featured Actor in a Musical:

Two front runners have set themselves apart in this category so far. Those are Andy Karl in On The Twentieth Century as a rich woman's hunky play thing, and Christian Borle in Something Rotten as a sexed up Shakespeare. A third, Max Von Essen as a hopeful singer in An American in Paris, is nipping at their heels.

Brad Oscar is also in the mix for his role in Something Rotten! in which he has the big showstopping musical number. John Grisetti's nervous ex boyfriend character in It Shoulda Been You may also snag him a nomination. Or it could go to Paul Alexander Nolan as the rebellious teen turned dangerous general in Doctor Zhivago.

Other potential nominees include Jay Armstrong Johnson in On The Town, Corey Cott in Gigi, Kelsey Grammer in Finding Neverland and Clyde Alves from On The Town.

Nomination Odds:
Christian Borle (Something Rotten!): 90%
Andy Karl (On the 20th Century): 90%
Max Von Essen (An American in Paris): 75%
Brad Oscar (Something Rotten): 60%
Paul Alexander Nolan (Doctor Zhivago): 45%
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John Grisetti (It Shoulda Been You): 40%
Kelsey Grammer (Finding Neverland): 23%
Jay Armstrong Johnson (On the Town): 20%
Clyde Alves (On The Town): 15%
Tony Danza (Honeymoon in Vegas): 8%
Fred Applegate (The Last Ship): 4%
Ryan Silverman (Side Show): 1%
David St. Louis (Side Show): 1%
Tom Hewitt (Doctor Zhivago): 1%
Jon Viktor Corpuz (The King and I): 1%

Christian Borle in Something Rotten!

Featured Actress in a Musical:

This race is particularly crowded this year, with many nomination worthy performances. Judy Kuhn in Fun Home and Ruthie Ann Miles in The King and I are the closest things to front runners right now, and will likely get nominations. Sydney Lucas from Fun Home may also score a nomination, but the Tonys have been reluctant to nominate children in recent years, and that trend may continue. Victoria Clark and Tyne Daly both got very strong reviews, but are in very weak shows.

Many other names have been thrown around, with the 3 minor awards (Outer critics, Drama League, Drama Desk) nominating 11 different women in this category already. Other names to consider include Mary Louise Wilson in On the 20th Century, Megan Fairchild in On The Town, Nancy Opel in Honeymoon in Vegas, Harriet Harris in It Shoulda Been You and Heidi Blickenstaff in Something Rotten!

Nomination Odds:

Judy Kuhn (Fun home): 80%
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I): 75%
Victoria Clark (Gigi): 55%
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home): 50%
Tyne Daly (It Shoulda Been You): 40%
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Mary Louise Wilson (On the 20th Century): 35%
Nancy Opel (Honeymoon in Vegas): 33%
Megan Fairchild (On the Town): 25%
Harriet Harris (It Shoulda Been You): 18%
Heidi Blickenstaff (Something Rotten!): 12%
Emily Skeggs (Fun Home): 10%
Carolee Carmello (Finding Neverland): 5%
Dee Hoty (Gigi): 4%
Alysha Umphress (On the Town): 2%
Elizabeth Stanley (On the Town): 1%

Audio recording of Judy Kuhn in Fun Home