Beth Malone (Fun Home)
Brynn O'Malley (Honeymoon in Vegas)
Chita Rivera (The Visit)
Emily Padgett (Side Show)
Erin Davie (Side Show)
Kelli Barrett (Doctor Zhivago)
Kelli O'Hare (The King and I)
Kristin Chenoweth (On the 20th Century)
Laura Michelle Kelly (Finding Neverland)
Leanne Cope (An American in Paris)
Lisa Howard (It Shoulda Been You)
Rachel Tucker (The Last Ship)
Vanessa Hudgens (Gigi)
The three women leading the race for this category are Kristin Chenoweth, Chita Rivera and Kelli O'Hara, any of whom could easily win the award. One of them not being nominated would be a definite upset.
Most of the other women have at least a small chance, with the exceptions of Vanessa Hudgens and Kelli Barrett, who are all but out of the running. Rachel Tucker and Brynn O'Malley are also doubtful even though they got solid reviews, because their roles weren't very showy and their shows closed early. The Side Show twins both stand a small chance, but its doubtful there's room for both of them, and most nominators would probably want to vote for either both girls, or neither.
This leaves four women for the last 2 spots. Of those, Leanne Cope probably stands the best chance, having been nominated by every other award so far. Beth Malone received decent reviews in Fun Home, this year's best musical front runner, which might slide her in. Laura Michelle Kelly is a Broadway and West End veteran, and got solid reviews, but Finding Neverland has struggled with the critics in general. Lisa Howard got very good reviews in It Shoulda Been You, but nominators may look over this smaller musical.
Nomination Odds:
Kristin Chenoweth: 95%
Chita Rivera: 95%
Kelli O'Hara: 80%
Leanne Cope: 60%
Beth Malone: 45%
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Laura Michelle Kelly: 40%
Lisa Howard: 37%
Erin Davie: 15%
Brynn O'Malley: 12%
Emily Padgett: 10%
Rachel Tucker: 5%
Kelli Barrett: 1%
Vanessa Hudgens: 1%
Kristin Chenoweth in On the 20th Century
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