Director of a Musical:
There are three front runners right now in the director of a musical race, and unsurprisingly all of them directed likely nominees for best musical. Those are Sam Gold for Fun Home, Casey Nicholaw for Something Rotten, and Christopher Wheeldon for An American in Paris.
After those three there is a crowd fighting for the 4th and 5th slots. The 4 main directors in contention are Bartlett Sherr for The King and I, John Doyle for The Visit, John Rando for On the Town and Scott Ellis for On the 20th Century. Dark Horse candidates who still have a shot include Diane Paulus for Finding Neverland, David Hyde Pierce for It Shoulda Been You, and Bill Condon for Side Show.
Nomination Odds:
Sam Gold (Fun Home): 90%
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 90%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten): 85%
Bartlett Sherr (The King and I): 49%
John Doyle (The Visit): 45%
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Scott Ellis (On the Twentieth Century): 37%
John Rando (On the Town): 29%
Diane Paulus (Finding Neverland): 29%
Bill Condon (Side Show): 20%
David Hyde Pierce (It Shoulda Been You): 15%
Joe Mantello (The Last Ship): 5%
Des McAnuff (Doctor Zhivago): 2%
Gary Griffin (Honeymoon in Vegas): 2%
Eric Schaeffer (Gigi): 1%
Kenny Leon (Holler if Ya Hear Me): 1%
Director of a Play:
The likely candidates for best director of a play all come from among the likely nominees for Best Play and Best Revival, as you would expect. The leading contenders are The directors for Curious Incident (Marianne Elliot) and The Elephant Man (Scott Ellis), with the director of Wolf Hall (Jeremy Herrin) in the mix as well.
Other contenders are Moritz von Stuelpnagel for Hand to God, Stephen Daldry for Skylight and The Audience, Scott Ellis again for You Can't Take It With You, Pam McKinnon for The Heidi Chronicles and Michael Longhurst for Constellations.
Nomination Odds:
Marianne Elliot (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 95%
Scott Ellis (The Elephant Man): 80%
Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 70%
Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God): 60%
Stephen Daldry (The Audience): 45%
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Stephen Daldry (Skylight): 40%
Scott Ellis (You Can't Take It With You): 33%
Pam McKinnon (The Heidi Chronicles): 25%
Michael Longhurst (Constellations): 18%
Joe Mantello (Airline Highway): 12%
Kimberly Senior (Disgraced): 10%
Jack O'Brien (It's Only a Play): 6%
Pam McKinnon (A Delicate Balance): 6%
Anna D. Shapiro (This is Our Youth): 4%
Annd D. Shapiro (Fish in the Dark): 3%
Ian Rickson (The River): 3%
Kathleen Marshall (Living on Love): 2%
Gregory Mosher (Love Letters): 1%
Sam Gold (The Real Thing): 1%
Daniel Sullivan (The Country House): 1%
Choreography:
This Season had some very strong dance musicals, which thankfully gives us some choreographer frontrunners. Those frontrunners are Christopher Wheeldon for An American in Paris and Joshua Bergasse for On The Town. Casey Nicholaw is also likely to be nominated, but it's mainly Wheeldon and Bergasse competing for the Tony.
After those 3 there is a pack of about 5 shows fighting for the last 2 slots. Those choreographers are Warren Carlyle for On the Twentieth Century, Christopher Gattelli for The King and I, Mia Michaels for Finding Neverland, Joshua Bergasse again for Gigi and Denis Jones for Honeymoon in Vegas.
Nomination Odds:
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 95%
Joshua Bergasse (On The Town): 95%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten): 85%
Warren Carlyle (On The Twentieth Century): 75%
Christopher Gattelli (The King and I): 45%
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Mia Michaels (Finding Neverland): 40%
Joshua Bergasse (Gigi): 30%
Denis Jones (Honeymoon in Vegas): 20%
Josh Rhodes (It Shoulda Been You): 8%
Steven Hoggett (The Last Ship): 8%
Fun Home (Danny Mefford): 5%
Graciela Daniele (The Visit): 3%
Anthony Van Laast (Side Show): 1%
Wayne Cilentro (Holler if ya Hear Me): 1%
Kelly Devine (Doctor Zhivago): 1%
There are three front runners right now in the director of a musical race, and unsurprisingly all of them directed likely nominees for best musical. Those are Sam Gold for Fun Home, Casey Nicholaw for Something Rotten, and Christopher Wheeldon for An American in Paris.
After those three there is a crowd fighting for the 4th and 5th slots. The 4 main directors in contention are Bartlett Sherr for The King and I, John Doyle for The Visit, John Rando for On the Town and Scott Ellis for On the 20th Century. Dark Horse candidates who still have a shot include Diane Paulus for Finding Neverland, David Hyde Pierce for It Shoulda Been You, and Bill Condon for Side Show.
Nomination Odds:
Sam Gold (Fun Home): 90%
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 90%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten): 85%
Bartlett Sherr (The King and I): 49%
John Doyle (The Visit): 45%
--------------------------------------------------
Scott Ellis (On the Twentieth Century): 37%
John Rando (On the Town): 29%
Diane Paulus (Finding Neverland): 29%
Bill Condon (Side Show): 20%
David Hyde Pierce (It Shoulda Been You): 15%
Joe Mantello (The Last Ship): 5%
Des McAnuff (Doctor Zhivago): 2%
Gary Griffin (Honeymoon in Vegas): 2%
Eric Schaeffer (Gigi): 1%
Kenny Leon (Holler if Ya Hear Me): 1%
Director of a Play:
The likely candidates for best director of a play all come from among the likely nominees for Best Play and Best Revival, as you would expect. The leading contenders are The directors for Curious Incident (Marianne Elliot) and The Elephant Man (Scott Ellis), with the director of Wolf Hall (Jeremy Herrin) in the mix as well.
Other contenders are Moritz von Stuelpnagel for Hand to God, Stephen Daldry for Skylight and The Audience, Scott Ellis again for You Can't Take It With You, Pam McKinnon for The Heidi Chronicles and Michael Longhurst for Constellations.
Nomination Odds:
Marianne Elliot (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 95%
Scott Ellis (The Elephant Man): 80%
Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 70%
Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God): 60%
Stephen Daldry (The Audience): 45%
-----------------------------------------------------
Stephen Daldry (Skylight): 40%
Scott Ellis (You Can't Take It With You): 33%
Pam McKinnon (The Heidi Chronicles): 25%
Michael Longhurst (Constellations): 18%
Joe Mantello (Airline Highway): 12%
Kimberly Senior (Disgraced): 10%
Jack O'Brien (It's Only a Play): 6%
Pam McKinnon (A Delicate Balance): 6%
Anna D. Shapiro (This is Our Youth): 4%
Annd D. Shapiro (Fish in the Dark): 3%
Ian Rickson (The River): 3%
Kathleen Marshall (Living on Love): 2%
Gregory Mosher (Love Letters): 1%
Sam Gold (The Real Thing): 1%
Daniel Sullivan (The Country House): 1%
Choreography:
This Season had some very strong dance musicals, which thankfully gives us some choreographer frontrunners. Those frontrunners are Christopher Wheeldon for An American in Paris and Joshua Bergasse for On The Town. Casey Nicholaw is also likely to be nominated, but it's mainly Wheeldon and Bergasse competing for the Tony.
After those 3 there is a pack of about 5 shows fighting for the last 2 slots. Those choreographers are Warren Carlyle for On the Twentieth Century, Christopher Gattelli for The King and I, Mia Michaels for Finding Neverland, Joshua Bergasse again for Gigi and Denis Jones for Honeymoon in Vegas.
Nomination Odds:
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 95%
Joshua Bergasse (On The Town): 95%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten): 85%
Warren Carlyle (On The Twentieth Century): 75%
Christopher Gattelli (The King and I): 45%
--------------------------------------------------------
Mia Michaels (Finding Neverland): 40%
Joshua Bergasse (Gigi): 30%
Denis Jones (Honeymoon in Vegas): 20%
Josh Rhodes (It Shoulda Been You): 8%
Steven Hoggett (The Last Ship): 8%
Fun Home (Danny Mefford): 5%
Graciela Daniele (The Visit): 3%
Anthony Van Laast (Side Show): 1%
Wayne Cilentro (Holler if ya Hear Me): 1%
Kelly Devine (Doctor Zhivago): 1%
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