Friday, April 24, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: New Play

Best New Play:

This year there are 11 candidates for Best New Play. Those shows are:

Airline Highway
Constellations
Disgraced
Fish in the Dark
Hand to God
Living on Love
The Audience
The Country House
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
The River
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2

It's going to be a tough race this year, with seven strong candidates who all stand a good chance of being nominated. The four that are unlikely to be nominated are Living on Love, Fish in the Dark, The River and The Country House, all of which got mixed or negative reviews, especially for the writing itself.

Hanging in at the bottom of the race is Airline Highway, which didn't have much buzz and got tepid reviews, but still managed to score a Drama Desk nomination. Of the 7 it has the smallest chance at a nomination.

At the top of the race is the new British import Curious Incident, which won the Olivier in 2013, and is the front runner for the Tony this year.

That leaves 3-4 slots, and 5 shows fighting over them. Because of last year's rule change, there's a chance that 5 shows will be nominated, if the voting is within 3 votes for the 4th and 5th place vote getters, and with how close this category is, this might be the most likely area for that to happen.

3 of the plays in the running are also British imports. The Audience got rave reviews for Helen Mirren, but the play itself got some mixed notices. Wolf Hall also got fairly good reviews for the production, but some critics noted that the excitement dropped off in part 2. Constellations received very positive reviews, but has now closed, and may be forgotten.

The other 2 plays are both American plays, both transfers from off-broadway, and that is where similarities stuff. Disgraced was the 2013 Pullitzer Prize winner for Drama, a serious play that deals with issues of religion and ethnicity in modern america. Hand to God, on the other hand (see what I did there) is a dark comedy about a puppet possessed by the devil. both plays got very good reviews, with raves by many for Hand to God, but both shows have sturggled at the box office, with Disgraced closing over a month ago.

Nomination Odds:

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time: 95%
The Audience: 85%
Hand to God: 70%
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2: 55%
-------------------------------------------------------
Constellations: 37%
Disgraced: 33%
Airline Highway: 15%
Living on Love: 5%
Fish in the Dark: 3%
The River: 1%
The Country House: 1%








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