Tony Watch 2015: Featured Performers in a Play

Finally we move on to the acting awards! Our first two categories will be Featured Actor in a Play, and Featured Actress in a Play. These featured categories are especially hard to predict, because the field of potential nominees is in the hundreds, and there's often a surprise nomination that nobody sees coming. However, we'll give it our best shot, and we'll include 15 potential nominees for each.

Featured Actor in a Play:

Though they are hard to predict, even the featured awards have some front runners. This year that front runner is Richard McCabe, who recently won the Olivier for his performance in The Audience, which he is now playing in America. Also solidly in the mix are Bryce Pinkham (The Heidi Chronicles), Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man) and Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall).

After this chunk of four, there is a long list of actors that could potentially take that 5th spot (or even one of the front runner's spots). For the sake of space, we'll focus on three of them. K. Todd Freeman, playing a drag queen in Airline Highway, got many positive mentions in the reviews this week. Micah Stock, making his Broadway debut in It's Only a Play, also received love from the critics. Paul Jesson (Wolf Hall) also received good reviews, and was recently nominated for an Outer Critics Circle award. So which of these featured boys will be duking it out for the Tony?

Nomination Odds:

Richard McCabe (The Audience): 85%
Bryce Pinkham (The Heidi Chronicles): 75%
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall): 70%
Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man): 55%
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway): 45%
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Micah Stock (It's Only a Play): 35%
Paul Jesson (Wolf Hall): 30%
Rupert Grint (It's Only a Play): 25%
Jason Biggs (The Heidi Chronicles): 15%
James Earl Jones (You Can't Take It With You): 15%
Josh Radnor (Disgraced): 8%
Bob Balaban (A Delicate Balance): 6%
Matthew Beard (Skylight): 2%
Ian Barford (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 1%
Mark Kudisch (Hand to God): 1%

Richard McCabe in The Audience

Featured Actress in a Play:

Another hard category to predict, Featured Actress in Play has a few front runners, but any one of them could foreseeably be upset and lose their spot. Annaleigh Ashford got some raves for her performance in You Can't Take It With You, but not everyone liked her performance. Judith Ivey was praised for playing Margaret Thatcher in The Audience, but has been ignored by the other three major awards so far. Julie White and Lydia Leonard both received positive reviews for their roles in Airline Highway and Wolf Hall respectively, but their roles are less flashy than some of the others. Julie Halston has received Outer Critics and Drama Desk nominations, but received less notice from the critics than many of the other actresses.

Other major contenders include Patricia Clarkson from The Elephant Man, Tracee Chimo from The Heidi Chronicles, Francesca Faridnay from Curious Incident and Kristine Nielsen from You Can't Take It With You

Nomination Odds:

Annaleigh Ashford (You Can't Take It With You): 75%
Julie White (Airline Highway): 75%
Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall 1&2): 65%
Judith Ivey (The Audience): 50%
Kristine Nielsen (You Can't Take It With You): 35%
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Julie Halston (You Can't Take It With You): 30%
Patricia Clarkson (Elephant Man): 30%
Francesca Faridnay (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 23%
Tracee Chimo (The Heidi Chronicles): 20%
Sarah Stiles (Hand to God): 12%
Rose Byrne (You Can't Take It With You): 8%
Enid Graham (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 2%
Martha Plimpton (A Delicate Balance): 1%
Megan Mulally (It's Only a Play): 1%
Jayne Houdyshell (Fish in the Dark): 1%

Annaleigh Ashford in You Can't Take It With You