Tony Watch 2015: Leading Actor in a Musical

This category is possibly the hardest lead category to predict this year, without a clear front runner and with many viable competitors. The 14 potential nominees are:

Brian D'Arcy James (Something Rotten!)

Corey Cott (Gigi)

John Cariani (Something Rotten!)

Ken Watanabe (The King and I)

Matthew Morrison (Finding Neverland)

Michael Cerveris (Fun Home)

Michael Esper (The Last Ship)

Peter Gallagher (On The 20th Century)

Rob McClure (Honeymoon in Vegas)

Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris)

Roger Rees (The Visit)

Saul Williams (Holler if ya Hear Me)

Tam Mutu (Doctor Zhivago)

Tony Yazbeck (On The Town)

Because this category is so top heavy, we're going to work our way up from the bottom. sitting in the basement of this category are Saul Williams, Tam Mutu, Michael Esper, Ken Watanabe and Corey Cott. All 5 actually got decent reviews for the most part, but this category is simply too packed for decent.

The next group all have a small chance at making it in, though it would be a small upset. Roger Rees got a mix of raves and pans, so if the Tony nominating committee sides with the raves, he could grab a spot. John Cariani got solid reviews, but his castmate will likely be nominated, and there may be some reluctance to include both of them. Rob McClure got very good reviews, but his shows ultimately floundered, so he could be left out.

The closest things to locks that we have in this category are Michael Cerveris, Brian D'Arcy James and Robert Fairchild. all of them got good reviews, and have received nominations from the other award shows, so their chances are strong.

This leaves 3 actors left for the last 3 spots. Tony Yazbeck, who got great reviews in a show that has been struggling recently. Peter Gallagher, who got good notices but whose performance got lost a little in his show due to Andy Karl and Kristin Chenoweth getting raves. And Matthew Morrison, who got mixed reviews in Finding Neverland, but who has the star power, the word of mouth and the grosses to back him up. 

Nomination Odds:

Brian D'Arcy James: 80%

Michael Cerveris: 80%

Robert Fairchild: 65%

Tony Yazbeck: 45%

Peter Gallagher: 45%

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Matthew Morrison: 40%

Rob McClure: 30%

John Cariani: 30%

Roger Rees: 23%

Ken Watanabe: 12%

Tam Mutu: 4%

Corey Cott: 4%

Michael Esper: 1%

Saul Williams: 1%

Brian D'Arcy James in Something Rotten!