Compared to last year's Lead actor in a Play race, where Denzel Washington and Daniel Radcliffe both missed out on nominations, this year is pretty straight forward. There are 16 candidates for the award this year:
Alexander Sharp (Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Ben Miles (Wolf Hall 1&2)
Bill Nighy (Skylight)
Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man)
Brian Dennehy (Love Letters)
Douglas Sills (Living on Love)
Ewan McGregor (The Real Thing)
Hari Dhillon (Disgraced)
Hugh Jackman (The River)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Constellations)
John Lithgow (A Delicate Balance)
Kieran Culkin (This is Our Youth)
Larry David (Fish in the Dark)
Michael Cera (This is Our Youth)
Nathan Lane (It's Only a Play)
Steven Boyer (Hand to God)
The frontrunner for the award is Alexander Sharp, whose performance in Curious Incident received rave reviews. After him there is a small pack of 3 that are very likely nominees. Steven Boyer, Bradley Cooper and Ben Miles all received very strong reviews, and it would be considered an upset if they did not snag a nomination.
At the back of the pack are mostly actors from already closed shows. These include Brian Dennehy, Hari Dhillon, Michael Cera and Ewan McGregor (Though McGregor scored a drama league nom.)
Slightly ahead of this group, but still very unlikely, are Larry David, Kieran Culkin and John Lithgow, who all received decent reviews but probably not good enough to gain major consideration.
This leaves a star packed competition for the last spot, with Bill Nighy, Nathan Lane, Hugh Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal and Douglas Sills all in the mix. Other award shows won't help us here, as the only other award these 5 were nominated for was the Drama League, where 3 were nominated and 2 were ineligible. This could be a close fight, and it could even be possible that 2 of these guys steal a nomination, taking a slot away from Boyer or Miles.
Nomination Odds:
Alexander Sharp: 95%
Bradley Cooper: 75%
Ben Miles: 55%
Steven Boyer: 55%
Bill Nighy: 45%
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Nathan Lane: 40%
Hugh Jackman: 35%
Douglas Sills: 22%
Jake Gyllenhaal: 18%
John Lithgow: 12%
Kieran Culkin: 9%
Larry David: 7%
Ewan McGregor: 4%
Michael Cera: 4%
Hari Dhillon: 2%
Brian Dennehy: 1%
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