This season 10 new musicals came to Broadway. They were:
An American in Paris
Doctor Zhivago
Finding Neverland
Fun Home
Holler If Ya Hear Me
Honeymoon in Vegas
It Shoulda Been You
Something Rotten!
The Last Ship
The Visit
This race can be broken down into 2 groups. A group of 7 musicals that have a decent shot at a nomination, and a group of 3 musicals that have almost no shot at a nomination. The 3 musicals that are unlikely to be nominated are Holler If Ya Hear Me, Doctor Zhivago and The Last Ship (Though The Last Ship managed an Outer Critics Circle Nomination so anything can happen).
In the group of 7, one show is a front runner. Fun Home got rave reviews and will almost certainly be nominated. An American in Paris also received very strong reviews, which could push them into a nomination as well. Something Rotten and The Visit have both had a lot of buzz, and though reviews were mixed for both, that combined with the buzz could push either or both into a nomination.
Finding Neverland has been an audience hit, but critics were less impressed, and Harvey Weinstein, the producer, has created a lot of ill will in the Broadway community. Honeymoon in Vegas followed the typical Jason Robert Brown musical path by opening to pretty good reviews, with a lot of praise for the music, then finding no audience, playing far longer than it should have, and closing. It may have over stayed its welcome on Broadway, which could damage its shot at a nomination. It Shoulda Been You has been the little engine that could this season. What many thought would be the flop of the season opened to mixed reviews, with some solid praise, and then managed both Drama League and Outer Critics Circle nominations. Will the little engine that could be able to keep going?
Nomination Odds:
Fun Home: 95%
An American in Paris: 80%
Something Rotten: 75%
The Visit: 70%
--------------------------
It Shoulda Been You: 33%
Finding Neverland: 25%
Honeymoon in Vegas: 15%
The Last Ship: 5%
Doctor Zhivago: 1%
Holler if Ya Hear Me: 1%
This race can be broken down into 2 groups. A group of 7 musicals that have a decent shot at a nomination, and a group of 3 musicals that have almost no shot at a nomination. The 3 musicals that are unlikely to be nominated are Holler If Ya Hear Me, Doctor Zhivago and The Last Ship (Though The Last Ship managed an Outer Critics Circle Nomination so anything can happen).
In the group of 7, one show is a front runner. Fun Home got rave reviews and will almost certainly be nominated. An American in Paris also received very strong reviews, which could push them into a nomination as well. Something Rotten and The Visit have both had a lot of buzz, and though reviews were mixed for both, that combined with the buzz could push either or both into a nomination.
Finding Neverland has been an audience hit, but critics were less impressed, and Harvey Weinstein, the producer, has created a lot of ill will in the Broadway community. Honeymoon in Vegas followed the typical Jason Robert Brown musical path by opening to pretty good reviews, with a lot of praise for the music, then finding no audience, playing far longer than it should have, and closing. It may have over stayed its welcome on Broadway, which could damage its shot at a nomination. It Shoulda Been You has been the little engine that could this season. What many thought would be the flop of the season opened to mixed reviews, with some solid praise, and then managed both Drama League and Outer Critics Circle nominations. Will the little engine that could be able to keep going?
Nomination Odds:
Fun Home: 95%
An American in Paris: 80%
Something Rotten: 75%
The Visit: 70%
--------------------------
It Shoulda Been You: 33%
Finding Neverland: 25%
Honeymoon in Vegas: 15%
The Last Ship: 5%
Doctor Zhivago: 1%
Holler if Ya Hear Me: 1%
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