Tony Watch 2015: Leading Actress in a Play

As the Tony nomination announcement slowly approach, we're getting into the big acting awards, starting with Lead Actress in a play.

This category has 12 candidates this year:

Blythe Danner (The Country House)
Carey Mulligan (Skylight)
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles)
Geneva Carr (Hand to God)
Glenn Close (A Delicate Balance)
Gretchen Mol (Disgraced)
Helen Mirren (The Audience)
Lindsay Duncan (A Delicate Balance)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Real Thing)
Mia Farrow (Love Letters)
Renee Fleming (Living on Love)
Ruth Wilson (Constellations)

There are a few clear front runners in this category, with the most prominent being Dame Helen Mirren for her performance as Queen Elizabeth. After her, three women are close to locks for their spots. Ruth Wilson, Carey Mulligan and Elizabeth Moss all got very strong reviews for their performances this season, and will likely score nominations.

On the other side of things, a few actresses can be essentially eliminated, and even some big names stand little chance. Mia Farrow, Blythe Danner and Maggie Gyllenhaal all received tepid to poor reviews in their shows, and their shows closed months ago. Gretchen Mol got slightly better reviews in Disgraced, but her show is also closed, and her role didn't allow her to show off very much.

That leaves four women fighting for the last spot. The ladies from A Delicate Balance got moderate reviews, and Glenn Close has the star power, but the two might split votes which could hurt both of them. Geneva Carr received positive notices for her role in Hand to God, but like Gretchen Mol, the row isn't particularly rich. Lastly, Renee Fleming, famed opera singer, got mixed reviews in her Broadway debut, but some may be swayed to her side by her lovely singing within the play, despite her somewhat middle of the road acting.

Nomination Odds:

Helen Mirren: 95%
Carey Mulligan: 85%
Elizabeth Moss:80%
Ruth Wilson: 75%
Geneva Carr: 55%
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Renee Fleming: 50%
Lindsay Duncan: 20%
Glenn Close: 10%
Gretchen Mol: 5%
Mia Farrow: 1%
Blythe Danner: 1%
Maggie Gyllenhaal: 1%