Friday, April 17, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Play Revivals

This year there are nine shows eligible for the Best Play Revival Tony award. Those plays are:

A Delicate Balance
It's Only a Play
Love Letters
Skylight
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
The Real Thing
This is Our Youth
You Can't Take it With You

Because of the 2014 rule changes, this category will have at least 4 nominees, with the potential for a fifth play if the voting by the nominating committee is close enough between the fourth and fifth placed shows. Last year, out of 3 categories that could have had 5 nominees was Best Play.

All 9 shows have now opened and been reviewed so we can get a much better idea of which shows have a shot at Tony nominations.

Three of the shows are essentially eliminated from the running. The Real Thing, Love Letters and A Delicate Balance all got mixed to negative reviews, and closed months ago (with Love Letters ending its run early).

This is Our Youth got moderately positive reviews, but not raves. It has also been closed for so long that it will most likely be overlooked.

This leaves 5 shows. Of those shows, The Elephant Man, Skylight and You Can't Take It With You, and appear to be all but guaranteed a slot.

That leaves The Heidi Chronicles and It's Only a Play fighting it out for the 4th and 5th spots. The Heidi Chronicles got positive reviews, but is struggling at the box office. Meanwhile It's Only a Play has extended multiple times, changed casts, and recouped its investment after only a couple months. So the big question is will the nomination committee choose the show with the reviews, or the show with the public support?

Nomination Odds:

The Elephant Man: 95%
Skylight: 95%
You Can't Take It With You: 91%
The Heidi Chronicles: 68%
-----------------------------------------
It's Only a Play: 35%
This is Our Youth: 8%
A Delicate Balance: 5%
The Real Thing: 2%
Love Letters: 1%

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