Monday, April 27, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Leading Actor in a Musical

This category is possibly the hardest lead category to predict this year, without a clear front runner and with many viable competitors. The 14 potential nominees are:

Brian D'Arcy James (Something Rotten!)
Corey Cott (Gigi)
John Cariani (Something Rotten!)
Ken Watanabe (The King and I)
Matthew Morrison (Finding Neverland)
Michael Cerveris (Fun Home)
Michael Esper (The Last Ship)
Peter Gallagher (On The 20th Century)
Rob McClure (Honeymoon in Vegas)
Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris)
Roger Rees (The Visit)
Saul Williams (Holler if ya Hear Me)
Tam Mutu (Doctor Zhivago)
Tony Yazbeck (On The Town)

Because this category is so top heavy, we're going to work our way up from the bottom. sitting in the basement of this category are Saul Williams, Tam Mutu, Michael Esper, Ken Watanabe and Corey Cott. All 5 actually got decent reviews for the most part, but this category is simply too packed for decent.

The next group all have a small chance at making it in, though it would be a small upset. Roger Rees got a mix of raves and pans, so if the Tony nominating committee sides with the raves, he could grab a spot. John Cariani got solid reviews, but his castmate will likely be nominated, and there may be some reluctance to include both of them. Rob McClure got very good reviews, but his shows ultimately floundered, so he could be left out.

The closest things to locks that we have in this category are Michael Cerveris, Brian D'Arcy James and Robert Fairchild. all of them got good reviews, and have received nominations from the other award shows, so their chances are strong.

This leaves 3 actors left for the last 3 spots. Tony Yazbeck, who got great reviews in a show that has been struggling recently. Peter Gallagher, who got good notices but whose performance got lost a little in his show due to Andy Karl and Kristin Chenoweth getting raves. And Matthew Morrison, who got mixed reviews in Finding Neverland, but who has the star power, the word of mouth and the grosses to back him up. 

Nomination Odds:

Brian D'Arcy James: 80%
Michael Cerveris: 80%
Robert Fairchild: 65%
Tony Yazbeck: 45%
Peter Gallagher: 45%
----------------------------------
Matthew Morrison: 40%
Rob McClure: 30%
John Cariani: 30%
Roger Rees: 23%
Ken Watanabe: 12%
Tam Mutu: 4%
Corey Cott: 4%
Michael Esper: 1%
Saul Williams: 1%

Brian D'Arcy James in Something Rotten!

Tony Watch 2015: Leading Actress in a Musical

The Leading Actress in a musical category this year  is shaping up similar to last year's, where three women dominate the field, and a small group of others are competing for the last few spots. The 13 eligible women are:

Beth Malone (Fun Home)
Brynn O'Malley (Honeymoon in Vegas)
Chita Rivera (The Visit)
Emily Padgett (Side Show)
Erin Davie (Side Show)
Kelli Barrett (Doctor Zhivago)
Kelli O'Hare (The King and I)
Kristin Chenoweth (On the 20th Century)
Laura Michelle Kelly (Finding Neverland)
Leanne Cope (An American in Paris)
Lisa Howard (It Shoulda Been You)
Rachel Tucker (The Last Ship)
Vanessa Hudgens (Gigi)

The three women leading the race for this category are Kristin Chenoweth, Chita Rivera and Kelli O'Hara, any of whom could easily win the award. One of them not being nominated would be a definite upset.

Most of the other women have at least a small chance, with the exceptions of Vanessa Hudgens and Kelli Barrett, who are all but out of the running. Rachel Tucker and Brynn O'Malley are also doubtful even though they got solid reviews, because their roles weren't very showy and their shows closed early. The Side Show twins both stand a small chance, but its doubtful there's room for both of them, and most nominators would probably want to vote for either both girls, or neither.

This leaves four women for the last 2 spots. Of those, Leanne Cope probably stands the best chance, having been nominated by every other award so far. Beth Malone received decent reviews in Fun Home, this year's best musical front runner, which might slide her in. Laura Michelle Kelly is a Broadway and West End veteran, and got solid reviews, but Finding Neverland has struggled with the critics in general. Lisa Howard got very good reviews in It Shoulda Been You, but nominators may look over this smaller musical.

Nomination Odds:

Kristin Chenoweth: 95%
Chita Rivera: 95%
Kelli O'Hara: 80%
Leanne Cope: 60%
Beth Malone: 45%
------------------------------
Laura Michelle Kelly: 40%
Lisa Howard: 37%
Erin Davie: 15%
Brynn O'Malley: 12%
Emily Padgett: 10%
Rachel Tucker: 5%
Kelli Barrett: 1%
Vanessa Hudgens: 1%

Kristin Chenoweth in On the 20th Century

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Leading Actor in a Play

Compared to last year's Lead actor in a Play race, where Denzel Washington and Daniel Radcliffe both missed out on nominations, this year is pretty straight forward. There are 16 candidates for the award this year:

Alexander Sharp (Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Ben Miles (Wolf Hall 1&2)
Bill Nighy (Skylight)
Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man)
Brian Dennehy (Love Letters)
Douglas Sills (Living on Love)
Ewan McGregor (The Real Thing)
Hari Dhillon (Disgraced)
Hugh Jackman (The River)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Constellations)
John Lithgow (A Delicate Balance)
Kieran Culkin (This is Our Youth)
Larry David (Fish in the Dark)
Michael Cera (This is Our Youth)
Nathan Lane (It's Only a Play)
Steven Boyer (Hand to God)

The frontrunner for the award is Alexander Sharp, whose performance in Curious Incident received rave reviews. After him there is a small pack of 3 that are very likely nominees. Steven Boyer, Bradley Cooper and Ben Miles all received very strong reviews, and it would be considered an upset if they did not snag a nomination.

At the back of the pack are mostly actors from already closed shows. These include Brian Dennehy, Hari Dhillon, Michael Cera and Ewan McGregor (Though McGregor scored a drama league nom.)
Slightly ahead of this group, but still very unlikely, are Larry David, Kieran Culkin and John Lithgow, who all received decent reviews but probably not good enough to gain major consideration.

This leaves a star packed competition for the last spot, with Bill Nighy, Nathan Lane, Hugh Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal and Douglas Sills all in the mix. Other award shows won't help us here, as the only other award these 5 were nominated for was the Drama League, where 3 were nominated and 2 were ineligible. This could be a close fight, and it could even be possible that 2 of these guys steal a nomination, taking a slot away from Boyer or Miles.

Nomination Odds:

Alexander Sharp: 95%
Bradley Cooper: 75%
Ben Miles: 55%
Steven Boyer: 55%
Bill Nighy: 45%
--------------------------
Nathan Lane: 40%
Hugh Jackman: 35%
Douglas Sills: 22%
Jake Gyllenhaal: 18%
John Lithgow: 12%
Kieran Culkin: 9%
Larry David: 7%
Ewan McGregor: 4%
Michael Cera: 4%
Hari Dhillon: 2%
Brian Dennehy: 1%



Tony Watch 2015: Leading Actress in a Play

As the Tony nomination announcement slowly approach, we're getting into the big acting awards, starting with Lead Actress in a play.

This category has 12 candidates this year:

Blythe Danner (The Country House)
Carey Mulligan (Skylight)
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles)
Geneva Carr (Hand to God)
Glenn Close (A Delicate Balance)
Gretchen Mol (Disgraced)
Helen Mirren (The Audience)
Lindsay Duncan (A Delicate Balance)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Real Thing)
Mia Farrow (Love Letters)
Renee Fleming (Living on Love)
Ruth Wilson (Constellations)

There are a few clear front runners in this category, with the most prominent being Dame Helen Mirren for her performance as Queen Elizabeth. After her, three women are close to locks for their spots. Ruth Wilson, Carey Mulligan and Elizabeth Moss all got very strong reviews for their performances this season, and will likely score nominations.

On the other side of things, a few actresses can be essentially eliminated, and even some big names stand little chance. Mia Farrow, Blythe Danner and Maggie Gyllenhaal all received tepid to poor reviews in their shows, and their shows closed months ago. Gretchen Mol got slightly better reviews in Disgraced, but her show is also closed, and her role didn't allow her to show off very much.

That leaves four women fighting for the last spot. The ladies from A Delicate Balance got moderate reviews, and Glenn Close has the star power, but the two might split votes which could hurt both of them. Geneva Carr received positive notices for her role in Hand to God, but like Gretchen Mol, the row isn't particularly rich. Lastly, Renee Fleming, famed opera singer, got mixed reviews in her Broadway debut, but some may be swayed to her side by her lovely singing within the play, despite her somewhat middle of the road acting.

Nomination Odds:

Helen Mirren: 95%
Carey Mulligan: 85%
Elizabeth Moss:80%
Ruth Wilson: 75%
Geneva Carr: 55%
---------------------
Renee Fleming: 50%
Lindsay Duncan: 20%
Glenn Close: 10%
Gretchen Mol: 5%
Mia Farrow: 1%
Blythe Danner: 1%
Maggie Gyllenhaal: 1%

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Featured Performers in a Musical

Though slightly less numerous than those in plays, Featured Actor and Actress in a musical are still very difficult to predict. There will be some front runners, but there could also be a few very unexpected people sliding into a nomination. But as always, we'll give it our best. As with the play awards, we'll include at least 15 nominees to give a fairly large scope of possibilities.

Featured Actor in a Musical:

Two front runners have set themselves apart in this category so far. Those are Andy Karl in On The Twentieth Century as a rich woman's hunky play thing, and Christian Borle in Something Rotten as a sexed up Shakespeare. A third, Max Von Essen as a hopeful singer in An American in Paris, is nipping at their heels.

Brad Oscar is also in the mix for his role in Something Rotten! in which he has the big showstopping musical number. John Grisetti's nervous ex boyfriend character in It Shoulda Been You may also snag him a nomination. Or it could go to Paul Alexander Nolan as the rebellious teen turned dangerous general in Doctor Zhivago.

Other potential nominees include Jay Armstrong Johnson in On The Town, Corey Cott in Gigi, Kelsey Grammer in Finding Neverland and Clyde Alves from On The Town.

Nomination Odds:
Christian Borle (Something Rotten!): 90%
Andy Karl (On the 20th Century): 90%
Max Von Essen (An American in Paris): 75%
Brad Oscar (Something Rotten): 60%
Paul Alexander Nolan (Doctor Zhivago): 45%
-------------------------------------------------
John Grisetti (It Shoulda Been You): 40%
Kelsey Grammer (Finding Neverland): 23%
Jay Armstrong Johnson (On the Town): 20%
Clyde Alves (On The Town): 15%
Tony Danza (Honeymoon in Vegas): 8%
Fred Applegate (The Last Ship): 4%
Ryan Silverman (Side Show): 1%
David St. Louis (Side Show): 1%
Tom Hewitt (Doctor Zhivago): 1%
Jon Viktor Corpuz (The King and I): 1%

Christian Borle in Something Rotten!


Featured Actress in a Musical:

This race is particularly crowded this year, with many nomination worthy performances. Judy Kuhn in Fun Home and Ruthie Ann Miles in The King and I are the closest things to front runners right now, and will likely get nominations. Sydney Lucas from Fun Home may also score a nomination, but the Tonys have been reluctant to nominate children in recent years, and that trend may continue. Victoria Clark and Tyne Daly both got very strong reviews, but are in very weak shows.

Many other names have been thrown around, with the 3 minor awards (Outer critics, Drama League, Drama Desk) nominating 11 different women in this category already. Other names to consider include Mary Louise Wilson in On the 20th Century, Megan Fairchild in On The Town, Nancy Opel in Honeymoon in Vegas, Harriet Harris in It Shoulda Been You and Heidi Blickenstaff in Something Rotten!

Nomination Odds:

Judy Kuhn (Fun home): 80%
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I): 75%
Victoria Clark (Gigi): 55%
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home): 50%
Tyne Daly (It Shoulda Been You): 40%
-------------------------------
Mary Louise Wilson (On the 20th Century): 35%
Nancy Opel (Honeymoon in Vegas): 33%
Megan Fairchild (On the Town): 25%
Harriet Harris (It Shoulda Been You): 18%
Heidi Blickenstaff (Something Rotten!): 12%
Emily Skeggs (Fun Home): 10%
Carolee Carmello (Finding Neverland): 5%
Dee Hoty (Gigi): 4%
Alysha Umphress (On the Town): 2%
Elizabeth Stanley (On the Town): 1%

Audio recording of Judy Kuhn in Fun Home




Tony Watch 2015: Directors & Choreographer

In our last three parter (we promise) The Broadway Beat will look at the two director awards (musical and play) along with the award for best choreographer. Because of a rule change this year, all three categories have been expanded to 5 nominees instead of 4, giving us even more spots to speculate about.

Director of a Musical:

There are three front runners right now in the director of a musical race, and unsurprisingly all of them directed likely nominees for best musical. Those are Sam Gold for Fun Home, Casey Nicholaw for Something Rotten, and Christopher Wheeldon for An American in Paris.

After those three there is a crowd fighting for the 4th and 5th slots. The 4 main directors in contention are Bartlett Sherr for The King and I, John Doyle for The Visit, John Rando for On the Town and Scott Ellis for On the 20th Century. Dark Horse candidates who still have a shot include Diane Paulus for Finding Neverland, David Hyde Pierce for It Shoulda Been You, and Bill Condon for Side Show.

Nomination Odds:
Sam Gold (Fun Home): 90%
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 90%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten): 85%
Bartlett Sherr (The King and I): 49%
John Doyle (The Visit): 45%
--------------------------------------------------
Scott Ellis (On the Twentieth Century): 37%
John Rando (On the Town): 29%
Diane Paulus (Finding Neverland): 29%
Bill Condon (Side Show): 20%
David Hyde Pierce (It Shoulda Been You): 15%
Joe Mantello (The Last Ship): 5%
Des McAnuff (Doctor Zhivago): 2%
Gary Griffin (Honeymoon in Vegas): 2%
Eric Schaeffer (Gigi): 1%
Kenny Leon (Holler if Ya Hear Me): 1%


Director of a Play:

The likely candidates for best director of a play all come from among the likely nominees for Best Play and Best Revival, as you would expect. The leading contenders are The directors for Curious Incident (Marianne Elliot) and The Elephant Man (Scott Ellis), with the director of Wolf Hall (Jeremy Herrin) in the mix as well.

Other contenders are Moritz von Stuelpnagel for Hand to God, Stephen Daldry for Skylight and The Audience, Scott Ellis again for You Can't Take It With You, Pam McKinnon for The Heidi Chronicles and Michael Longhurst for Constellations.

Nomination Odds:

Marianne Elliot (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 95%
Scott Ellis (The Elephant Man): 80%
Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 70%
Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God): 60%
Stephen Daldry (The Audience): 45%
-----------------------------------------------------
Stephen Daldry (Skylight): 40%
Scott Ellis (You Can't Take It With You): 33%
Pam McKinnon (The Heidi Chronicles): 25%
Michael Longhurst (Constellations): 18%
Joe Mantello (Airline Highway): 12%
Kimberly Senior (Disgraced): 10%
Jack O'Brien (It's Only a Play): 6%
Pam McKinnon (A Delicate Balance): 6%
Anna D. Shapiro (This is Our Youth): 4%
Annd D. Shapiro (Fish in the Dark): 3%
Ian Rickson (The River): 3%
Kathleen Marshall (Living on Love): 2%
Gregory Mosher (Love Letters): 1%
Sam Gold (The Real Thing): 1%
Daniel Sullivan (The Country House): 1%


Choreography:

This Season had some very strong dance musicals, which thankfully gives us some choreographer frontrunners. Those frontrunners are Christopher Wheeldon for An American in Paris and Joshua Bergasse for On The Town. Casey Nicholaw is also likely to be nominated, but it's mainly Wheeldon and Bergasse competing for the Tony.

After those 3 there is a pack of about 5 shows fighting for the last 2 slots. Those choreographers are Warren Carlyle for On the Twentieth Century, Christopher Gattelli for The King and I, Mia Michaels for Finding Neverland, Joshua Bergasse again for Gigi and Denis Jones for Honeymoon in Vegas.


Nomination Odds:
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 95%
Joshua Bergasse (On The Town): 95%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten): 85%
Warren Carlyle (On The Twentieth Century): 75%
Christopher Gattelli (The King and I): 45%
--------------------------------------------------------
Mia Michaels (Finding Neverland): 40%
Joshua Bergasse (Gigi): 30%
Denis Jones (Honeymoon in Vegas): 20%
Josh Rhodes (It Shoulda Been You): 8%
Steven Hoggett (The Last Ship): 8%
Fun Home (Danny Mefford): 5%
Graciela Daniele (The Visit): 3%
Anthony Van Laast (Side Show): 1%
Wayne Cilentro (Holler if ya Hear Me): 1%
Kelly Devine (Doctor Zhivago): 1%



Tony Watch 2015: Featured Performers in a Play

Finally we move on to the acting awards! Our first two categories will be Featured Actor in a Play, and Featured Actress in a Play. These featured categories are especially hard to predict, because the field of potential nominees is in the hundreds, and there's often a surprise nomination that nobody sees coming. However, we'll give it our best shot, and we'll include 15 potential nominees for each.

Featured Actor in a Play:

Though they are hard to predict, even the featured awards have some front runners. This year that front runner is Richard McCabe, who recently won the Olivier for his performance in The Audience, which he is now playing in America. Also solidly in the mix are Bryce Pinkham (The Heidi Chronicles), Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man) and Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall).

After this chunk of four, there is a long list of actors that could potentially take that 5th spot (or even one of the front runner's spots). For the sake of space, we'll focus on three of them. K. Todd Freeman, playing a drag queen in Airline Highway, got many positive mentions in the reviews this week. Micah Stock, making his Broadway debut in It's Only a Play, also received love from the critics. Paul Jesson (Wolf Hall) also received good reviews, and was recently nominated for an Outer Critics Circle award. So which of these featured boys will be duking it out for the Tony?

Nomination Odds:

Richard McCabe (The Audience): 85%
Bryce Pinkham (The Heidi Chronicles): 75%
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall): 70%
Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man): 55%
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway): 45%
-----------------------------------------------
Micah Stock (It's Only a Play): 35%
Paul Jesson (Wolf Hall): 30%
Rupert Grint (It's Only a Play): 25%
Jason Biggs (The Heidi Chronicles): 15%
James Earl Jones (You Can't Take It With You): 15%
Josh Radnor (Disgraced): 8%
Bob Balaban (A Delicate Balance): 6%
Matthew Beard (Skylight): 2%
Ian Barford (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 1%
Mark Kudisch (Hand to God): 1%

Richard McCabe in The Audience


Featured Actress in a Play:

Another hard category to predict, Featured Actress in Play has a few front runners, but any one of them could foreseeably be upset and lose their spot. Annaleigh Ashford got some raves for her performance in You Can't Take It With You, but not everyone liked her performance. Judith Ivey was praised for playing Margaret Thatcher in The Audience, but has been ignored by the other three major awards so far. Julie White and Lydia Leonard both received positive reviews for their roles in Airline Highway and Wolf Hall respectively, but their roles are less flashy than some of the others. Julie Halston has received Outer Critics and Drama Desk nominations, but received less notice from the critics than many of the other actresses.

Other major contenders include Patricia Clarkson from The Elephant Man, Tracee Chimo from The Heidi Chronicles, Francesca Faridnay from Curious Incident and Kristine Nielsen from You Can't Take It With You

Nomination Odds:

Annaleigh Ashford (You Can't Take It With You): 75%
Julie White (Airline Highway): 75%
Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall 1&2): 65%
Judith Ivey (The Audience): 50%
Kristine Nielsen (You Can't Take It With You): 35%
-------------------------------------------------------
Julie Halston (You Can't Take It With You): 30%
Patricia Clarkson (Elephant Man): 30%
Francesca Faridnay (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 23%
Tracee Chimo (The Heidi Chronicles): 20%
Sarah Stiles (Hand to God): 12%
Rose Byrne (You Can't Take It With You): 8%
Enid Graham (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 2%
Martha Plimpton (A Delicate Balance): 1%
Megan Mulally (It's Only a Play): 1%
Jayne Houdyshell (Fish in the Dark): 1%

Annaleigh Ashford in You Can't Take It With You



Friday, April 24, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: New Musical

Best New Musical:

This season 10 new musicals came to Broadway. They were:

An American in Paris
Doctor Zhivago
Finding Neverland
Fun Home
Holler If Ya Hear Me
Honeymoon in Vegas
It Shoulda Been You
Something Rotten!
The Last Ship
The Visit

This race can be broken down into 2 groups. A group of 7 musicals that have a decent shot at a nomination, and a group of 3 musicals that have almost no shot at a nomination. The 3 musicals that are unlikely to be nominated are Holler If Ya Hear Me, Doctor Zhivago and The Last Ship (Though The Last Ship managed an Outer Critics Circle Nomination so anything can happen).

In the group of 7, one show is a front runner. Fun Home got rave reviews and will almost certainly be nominated. An American in Paris also received very strong reviews, which could push them into a nomination as well. Something Rotten and The Visit have both had a lot of buzz, and though reviews were mixed for both, that combined with the buzz could push either or both into a nomination.

Finding Neverland has been an audience hit, but critics were less impressed, and Harvey Weinstein, the producer, has created a lot of ill will in the Broadway community. Honeymoon in Vegas followed the typical Jason Robert Brown musical path by opening to pretty good reviews, with a lot of praise for the music, then finding no audience, playing far longer than it should have, and closing. It may have over stayed its welcome on Broadway, which could damage its shot at a nomination. It Shoulda Been You has been the little engine that could this season. What many thought would be the flop of the season opened to mixed reviews, with some solid praise, and then managed both Drama League and Outer Critics Circle nominations. Will the little engine that could be able to keep going?

Nomination Odds:

Fun Home: 95%
An American in Paris: 80%
Something Rotten: 75%
The Visit: 70%
--------------------------
It Shoulda Been You: 33%
Finding Neverland: 25%
Honeymoon in Vegas: 15%
The Last Ship: 5%
Doctor Zhivago: 1%
Holler if Ya Hear Me: 1%

Tony Watch 2015: New Play

Best New Play:

This year there are 11 candidates for Best New Play. Those shows are:

Airline Highway
Constellations
Disgraced
Fish in the Dark
Hand to God
Living on Love
The Audience
The Country House
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
The River
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2

It's going to be a tough race this year, with seven strong candidates who all stand a good chance of being nominated. The four that are unlikely to be nominated are Living on Love, Fish in the Dark, The River and The Country House, all of which got mixed or negative reviews, especially for the writing itself.

Hanging in at the bottom of the race is Airline Highway, which didn't have much buzz and got tepid reviews, but still managed to score a Drama Desk nomination. Of the 7 it has the smallest chance at a nomination.

At the top of the race is the new British import Curious Incident, which won the Olivier in 2013, and is the front runner for the Tony this year.

That leaves 3-4 slots, and 5 shows fighting over them. Because of last year's rule change, there's a chance that 5 shows will be nominated, if the voting is within 3 votes for the 4th and 5th place vote getters, and with how close this category is, this might be the most likely area for that to happen.

3 of the plays in the running are also British imports. The Audience got rave reviews for Helen Mirren, but the play itself got some mixed notices. Wolf Hall also got fairly good reviews for the production, but some critics noted that the excitement dropped off in part 2. Constellations received very positive reviews, but has now closed, and may be forgotten.

The other 2 plays are both American plays, both transfers from off-broadway, and that is where similarities stuff. Disgraced was the 2013 Pullitzer Prize winner for Drama, a serious play that deals with issues of religion and ethnicity in modern america. Hand to God, on the other hand (see what I did there) is a dark comedy about a puppet possessed by the devil. both plays got very good reviews, with raves by many for Hand to God, but both shows have sturggled at the box office, with Disgraced closing over a month ago.

Nomination Odds:

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time: 95%
The Audience: 85%
Hand to God: 70%
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2: 55%
-------------------------------------------------------
Constellations: 37%
Disgraced: 33%
Airline Highway: 15%
Living on Love: 5%
Fish in the Dark: 3%
The River: 1%
The Country House: 1%








Thursday, April 23, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Score, Book and Orchestrations

Once again we're going to try to fit 3 categories into one post. The focus will be on some elements of this year's musicals, namely Best Score, Best Book and Best Orchestrations.

Best Score:

There are 8 candidates for Best Score this year:
Doctor Zhivago
Finding Neverland
Fun Home
Honeymoon in Vegas
It Shoulda Been You
Something Rotten
The Last Ship
The Visit

So far it looks like there are two main tiers in the best score race. The top three shows have seperated themselves from the rest of the pack. That first tier is Fun Home, Something Rotten and The Visit, all of which seem very likely to be nominated, unless the reviews sharply contrast public opinion. That leaves one spot left for the other five contenders.

Finding Neverland received mixed reviews for its score, with most agreeing that some songs landed very well while other fell flat or sounded 'poppy'. Honeymoon in Vegas has history behind it, with Jason Robert Brown already having won two Tonys for best score. The Last Ship has the celebrity power of Sting, who threw himself whole-heartedly into the world of Broadway this season. It Shoulda Been You got mild reviews for score, but managed to sneak into the nominations for the Outer Critics Circle Awards over some of the other shows. Last, and possibly least, Doctor Zhivago's score has received little positive attention in its reviews. Which of these shows will manage to take that last spot? Or will one of the big three be usurped? 

Nomination Odds:

Fun Home (Jeanine Tessori & Lisa Kron): 95%
Something Rotten (Wayne & Carey Kirkpatrick): 85%
The Visit (John Kander & Fred Ebb): 75%
The Last Ship (Sting): 50%
------------------------------------------------
Finding Neverland (Gary Barlow & Eliot Kennedy): 37%
Honeymoon in Vegas (Jason Robert Brown): 31%
Doctor Zhivago (Michael Korie & Amy Powers): 15%
It Shoulda Been You (Barbara Anselmi & Brian Hargrove): 12%

Ring of Keys from Fun Home, performed by Sydney Lucas


Best Book of a Musical:

There are 10 Candidates for Best Book of a Musical this year:
An American in Paris
Doctor Zhivago
Finding Neverland
Fun Home
Holler if Ya Hear Me
Honeymoon in Vegas
It Shoulda Been You
Something Rotten
The Last Ship
The Visit

In addition to these 10, there's a chance that Gigi's new book has enough changes for it to be considered for best book, but even if it is it is unlikely it will have any chance at a nomination, so lets just leave it out.

This race will most likely come down to Something Rotten and Fun Home, which are both very likely nominees. On the other side, Holler If Ya Hear me, The Last Ship and Doctor Zhivago all have been slammed for their Books, and are very doubtful nominees (though The Last Ship scored an Outer Critics Circle nomination)

That leaves the other 5 shows fighting for 2 slots. The Visit is the most likely nominee of this group, as it has the name recognition of Terrence McNally. Honeymoon in Vegas and Finding Neverland both met with some criticism of their books in reviews, but are still in contention. An American in Paris has received mostly approval for the changes made when adapting the movie for broadway, and It Shoulda Been You's book was one of its stronger elements. Any of these 5 could conceivably be nominated.

Nomination Odds:

Fun Home (Lisa Kron): 95%
Something Rotten! (Karey Kirkpatrick & John O'Farrell):90%
The Visit (Terrence McNally):70%
It Shoulda Been You (Brian Hargrove): 43%
-----------------------------------------------
An American in Paris (Craig Lucas): 37%
Finding Neverland (James Graham): 35%
Honeymoon in Vegas (Andrew Bergman): 21%
The Last Ship (John Logan & Brian Yorkey): 5%
Doctor Zhivago (Michael Weller): 2%
Holler If Ya Hear Me (Todd Kreidler): 1%

It Shoulda Been You (Book by Brian Hargrove)


Best Orchestrations:

All of this year's New musical ands revivals of musicals are eligible for this year's Best Orchestrations Awards. This award may be the hardest to predict, as a large chunk of the Broadway community still doesn't know what Orchestrations are. But we'll give it a shot anyway.

As with most of the awards, Holler if Ya Hear Me and Gigi are at the bottom, with It Shoulda Been You joining them. The most likely nominee is Jason Robert Brown for Honeymoon in Vegas, having won the award last year. Other shows likely to be in the running are On The Town, Something Rotten, The Last Ship, An American in Paris, possibly Fun Home and The King and I, and amazingly enough even Doctor Zhivago has a shot at this one.


Nomination Odds:

Honeymoon in Vegas (Jason Robert Brown, Don Sebesky, Larry Blank, Charlie Rosen): 75%
Something Rotten! (Larry Hochman): 55%
An American in Paris (Christopher Austin): 45%
On The Town (Bruce Coughlin): 40%
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Fun Home (John Clancy): 35%
The Last Ship (Rob Mathes): 30%
Doctor Zhivago (Danny Troob): 30%
The King and I (Robert Russell Bennett): 25%
On The Twentieth Century (Christopher Austin): 15%
The Visit (Larry Hochman):15%
Side Show (Harold Wheeler):15%
Finding Neverland (Simon Hale): 15%
It Shoulda Been You (Doug Besterman): 3%
Gigi (August Eriksmoen): 1%
Holler If Ya Hear Me (Daryl Waters): 1%
Honeymoon in Vegas (Orchestrations by Jason Robert Brown, Don Sebesky, Larry Blank and Charlie Rosen)

Monday, April 20, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Play Design Awards

Today we have another three category post, where we're going to squeeze in scenic, lighting, and costume design in a play into one post.

Best Scenic Design of a Play:

The juggernaut in the play design categories this year is The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, which has scenic design by Bunny Christie and Finn Ross. The real question is which other shows will be nominated?

A few shows with a solid chance at a nomination have already closed. You Can't Take it With You and A Delicate Balance both received praise for their sets that captured a regular household,  but with both shows now closed, will they be remembered by the nominating committee?

Other contenders include the new two part play Wolf Hall, the revolving set for the Heidi Chronicles, the first quaint, then horrifying set of Hand to God, the stripped down apartment of Skylight, and the wild motel in Airline Highway. This large field of competitors should make for a very competitive nomination race.

Nomination Odds:

Curious Incident (Bunny Christie and Finn Ross): 99%
You Can't Take it With You (David Rockwell): 60%
Wolf Hall (Christopher Oram): 45%
Airline Highway (Scott Pask): 40%
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The Heidi Chronicles (John Lee Beatty): 35%
A Delicate Balance (Santo Loquasto): 30%
Skylight (Bob Crowley): 25%
Hand to God (Beowulf Borrit): 24%
This is Our Youth (Todd Rosenthal): 10%
The River (Ultz): 6%
Fish in the Dark (Todd Rosenthal): 5%
Constellations (Tom Scutt): 5%
It's Only a Play (Scott Pask): 4%
The Elephant Man (Timothy R. Mackabee): 4%
The Audience (Bob Crowley): 3%
Living on Love (Derek McLane): 1%
The Real Thing (David Zinn): 1%
Disgraced (John Lee Beatty): 1%
The Country House (John Lee Beatty): 1%
Love Letters (John Lee Beatty): 1%

You Can't Take it With You (Set by David Rockwell)

Best Costume Design of a Play:

Costume design, the rare category where Curious Incident is not favored. But the Brits still lead the way, with Wolf Hall, a production that features exquisite Elizabethan era costumes. Its main competition may be another Brit in the quick changing costume work performed by Helen Mirren in The Audience. 

After these two, the field becomes more open. You Can't Take it With You received praise for its costume work, and may get a nomination. Costuming veteran Ann Roth worked on four shows this year, and two of them (A Delicate Balance and It's Only a Play) could be in contention for a nomination. Other potential nominees include The Heidi Chronicles, Living on Love, The Elephant Man and Airline Highway.

Nomination Odds:
Wolf Hall (Christopher Oram): 85%
The Audience (Bob Crowley): 75%
It's Only a Play (Ann Roth): 41%
You Can't Take it With You (Jane Greenwood): 41%
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A Delicate Balance (Ann Roth): 35%
The Heidi Chronicles (Jessica Pabst): 26%
Living on Love (Michael Krass): 22%
The Elephant Man (Clint Ramos): 21%
Airline Highway (David Zinn): 20%
Skylight (Bob Crowley): 10%
Fish in the Dark (Ann Roth): 8%
Hand to God (Sydney Maresca): 5%
The Real Thing (Kay Voyce): 2%
The River (Ultz): 2%
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (Bunny Christie): 2%
Disgraced (Jennifer von Mayrhauser): 1%
The Country House (Rita Ryack): 1%
This is Our Youth (Ann Roth): 1%
Constellations (Tom Scutt): 1%
Love Letters (Jane Greenwood): 1%

Wolf Hall

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

Curious Incident is (again) the juggernaut of this category. and all but guaranteed a nomination. Wolf Hall will also likely see another nomination in lighting, completing its sweep of nominations in the Tech categories. Amazingly both shows shared the same lighting designer, Paul Constable.

After this the competition gets very interesting. Constellations didn't have any grandiose lighting designs or effects, but the lighting changes were essential to assisting the story. Airline Highway has to capture the atypical outdoor lighting of a motel. A Delicate Balance follows a typical day/night cycle, but has to deal with lighting a very grandiose set. Other contenders The Elephant Man and Skylight also used lighting to accentuate their respective shows, and have veteran Broadway lighting designers behind them. But which will be able to snag those last spots?

A Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time (Paule Constable): 99%
Wolf Hall (Paule Constable): 80%
The Audience (Rick Fisher): 40%
The Elephant Man (Philip Rosenberg): 37%
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Constellations (Lee Curran): 35%
Airline Highway (Japhy Weideman): 33%
Skylight (Natasha Katz): 30%
A Delicate Balance (Brian MacDevitt): 27%
Hand to God (Jason Lyons): 8%
The River (Charles Balfour): 8%
You Can't Take it With You (Donald Holder): 7%
Fish in the Dark (Brian MacDevitt): 4%
It's Only a Play (Philip Rosenberg): 4%
The Heidi Chronicles (Japhy Weideman): 4%
Living on Love (Peter Kaczorowski): 3%
This is Our Youth (Brian MacDevitt): 3%
The Real Thing (Mark Barton): 2%
Disgraced (Kenneth Posner): 1%
The Country House (Peter Kaczorowski): 1%
Love Letters (Peter Kaczorowski): 1%

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time (Lighting by Paul Constable)

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Best Revival of a Musical

Consistently one of the smallest categories, there are only 5 potential nominees for Musical Revival this year. Because of last year's Tony rule change, that means that there are 3 guaranteed nominees in this category, with a potential 4th nominee if the voting is close enough among the nominating committee.

The candidates for this year's award are:
Gigi
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century
Sideshow
The King and I

Right off the bat there are some clear favorites, and one that is clearly behind the others. The King and I and On the Twentieth Century both scored rave reviews from most major critics, and are essentially locks to be nominated. On the other end of the spectrum, Gigi received mixed to negative reviews, and is all but eliminated from the running.

This leaves us with two shows fighting for the third position. hypothetically both Side Show and On the Town could make it if the votes were close enough, but On the Town has a few things helping it out. First, it is still running, which has been no easy feat. Side Show closed back in January, but On the Town has pushed through the slow months, cutting running costs and taking losses. In addition, On the Town is essentially a love letter to New York, with the plot centered around the wonderful crazy city that is The Big Apple. Both of these, along with mostly positive reviews, could push voters in the direction of On the Town

Nomination Odds:

The King and I: 95%
On the Twentieth Century: 95%
On the Town: 65%
Sideshow: 44%
Gigi: 1%

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Musical Design Awards

We're going to try to squeeze in three awards into one update: Scenic design, lighting and costume.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

The big name to know this year for scenic design is Scott Pask. Pask designed for three shows this year (The Visit, Something Rotten and Finding Neverland) all of which have a solid shot at being nominated. Other contenders include the extravagant On the Twentieth Century (David Rockwell) the new in-the-round design of Fun Home (David Zinn) and maybe even a rare Last Ship sighting (also David Zinn). However, the front runner in this year's competition is Michael Yeargan's production of the King and I. With Lincoln Center's budget and the extravagant nature of the show, Michael Yeargan had a lot to work with, and his sets are truly stunning.

Nomination Odds:
An American in Paris (Bob Crowley): 95%
The King and I (Michael Yeargan): 80%
The Visit (Scott Pask): 60%
Something Rotten (Scott Pask): 60%
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The Last Ship (David Zinn): 50%
On the Twentieth Century (David Rockwell): 39%
Finding Neverland (Scott Pask): 30%
Fun Home (David Zinn): 25%
Gigi (Derek McLane): 13%
Doctor Zhivago (Michael Scott-Mitchell): 4%
It Shoulda Been You (Anna Louizos): 4%
On the Town (Beowulf Boritt): 3%
Side Show (David Rockwell): 2%
Honeymoon in Vegas (Anna Louizos): 2%
Holler If Ya Hear Me (Edward Pierce): 1%
The Last Ship, set design by David Zinn

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

The King and I, this years most likely dominant design musical, leads the pack for costumes as well with Catherine Zuber designing the costumes. However, this competition looks to be closer than in scenic design, with a large number of competitive shows. William Ivey Long, almost perennial Tony nominee, may very well win for On the Twentieth Century. Catherine Zuber's other show Gigi will also be competitive, as will Paul Tazewell's shows Side Show and Doctor Zhivago. Dark Horse contenders include Finding Neverland (Suttirat Larlarb), An American in Paris (Bob Crowley), The Visit (Ann Hould Ward) and Something Rotten! (Gregg Barnes).

Nomination Odds:
The King and I (Catherine Zuber): 80%
On the Twentieth Century (William Ivey Long): 75%
Gigi (Catherine Zuber): 65%
Something Rotten! (Gregg Barnes): 50%
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Side Show (Paul Tazewell): 45%
Doctor Zhivago (Paul Tazewell): 37%
Finding Neverland (Suttirat Larlarb): 30%
An American in Paris (Bob Crowley): 25%
The Visit (Ann Hould Ward): 20%
It Shoulda Been You (William Ivey Long): 3%
Honeymoon in Vegas (Brian Hemesath): 3%
On the Town (Jess Goldstein): 2%
The Last Ship (David Zinn): 1%
Fun Home (David Zinn): 1%
Holler If Ya Hear Me (Reggie Ray): 1%
The King and I, costume design by Catherine Zuber
Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

This is the musical design race that could be the most competitive, specifically between The Visit (Japhy Weideman) and The King and I (Donald Holder). Both shows are very technically dazzling, and look to garner a lot of nominations. Other contenders include An American in Paris (Natasha Katz), Fun Home (Ben Stanton), Gigi (Natasha Katz), The Last Ship (Christopher Akerland), Doctor Zhivago (Howell Binkley) and Finding Neverland (Kenneth Posner)

Nomination Odds:
The Visit (Japhy Weideman): 70%
An American in Paris (Natasha Katz): 69%
Something Rotten (Natasha Katz): 57%
Fun Home (Ben Stanton): 45%
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The King and I (Donald Holder): 40%
Gigi (Natasha Katz): 35%
The Last Ship (Christopher Akerland): 35%
Finding Neverland (Kenneth Posner): 30%
Doctor Zhivago (Howell Binkley): 25%
On the Town (Jason Lyons): 7%
Side Show (Jules Fisher): 5%
On the Twentieth Century: 5%
Holler if Ya Hear Me: 2%
Honeymoon in Vegas: 2%
It Shoulda Been You: 1%


Friday, April 17, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Play Revivals

This year there are nine shows eligible for the Best Play Revival Tony award. Those plays are:

A Delicate Balance
It's Only a Play
Love Letters
Skylight
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
The Real Thing
This is Our Youth
You Can't Take it With You

Because of the 2014 rule changes, this category will have at least 4 nominees, with the potential for a fifth play if the voting by the nominating committee is close enough between the fourth and fifth placed shows. Last year, out of 3 categories that could have had 5 nominees was Best Play.

All 9 shows have now opened and been reviewed so we can get a much better idea of which shows have a shot at Tony nominations.

Three of the shows are essentially eliminated from the running. The Real Thing, Love Letters and A Delicate Balance all got mixed to negative reviews, and closed months ago (with Love Letters ending its run early).

This is Our Youth got moderately positive reviews, but not raves. It has also been closed for so long that it will most likely be overlooked.

This leaves 5 shows. Of those shows, The Elephant Man, Skylight and You Can't Take It With You, and appear to be all but guaranteed a slot.

That leaves The Heidi Chronicles and It's Only a Play fighting it out for the 4th and 5th spots. The Heidi Chronicles got positive reviews, but is struggling at the box office. Meanwhile It's Only a Play has extended multiple times, changed casts, and recouped its investment after only a couple months. So the big question is will the nomination committee choose the show with the reviews, or the show with the public support?

Nomination Odds:

The Elephant Man: 95%
Skylight: 95%
You Can't Take It With You: 91%
The Heidi Chronicles: 68%
-----------------------------------------
It's Only a Play: 35%
This is Our Youth: 8%
A Delicate Balance: 5%
The Real Thing: 2%
Love Letters: 1%

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Pulitzer Preview

What show have received buzz as a potential Pulitzer finalist? We've got the scoop for you here!

The Frontrunners:

Father Comes Home From the Wars Parts 1, 2 and 3 By Suzan-Lori Parks: This explosively powerful Civil War drama by Pulitzer Prize-winner Suzan-Lori Parks follows a slave, Hero, from West Texas to the Confederate battlefield. Inspired in part by the stories and scope of Greek tragedy, this trilogy examines the mess of war and the cost of freedom.

Appropriate By Branden Jacobs-Jenkins: The estranged members of the Lafayette clan have returned to Arkansas and their crumbling old plantation home to settle the accounts of their recently deceased patriarch. As they sort through a lifetime of hoarded mementos and junk, the discovery of a gruesome relic and a surprise visitor send the family into a spiral of crackling confrontations, repressed histories, and regret.

An Octoroon By Branden Jacobs-Jenkins: Judge Peyton is dead, and his plantation Terrebonne is in financial ruins. Peyton’s handsome nephew George arrives as heir apparent, and quickly falls in love with Zoe, a beautiful “octoroon.” But, the evil overseer M’Closky has other plans — for both Terrebonne and Zoe.

Between Riverside and Crazy By Stephen Adly Guirgis: City Hall is demanding more than his signature, the Landlord wants him out, the liquor store is closed — and the Church won’t leave him alone. For ex-cop & recent widower Walter “Pops” Washington and his recently paroled son Junior, when the struggle to hold on to one of the last great rent stabilized apartments on Riverside Drive collides with old wounds, sketchy new houseguests, and a final ultimatum, it seems the Old Days are dead and gone — after a lifetime living between Riverside and Crazy.

Straight White Men By Young Jean Lee: When Ed and his three adult sons come together to celebrate Christmas, they enjoy cheerful trash-talking, pranks, and takeout Chinese. Then they confront a problem that even being a happy family can’t solve: when identity matters, and privilege is problematic, what is the value of being a straight white man?

Other Candidates:

Airline Highway By Lisa D'Amour

The Christians By Lucas Hnath

The City of Conversation By Tom Giardina

The Country House By Donald Marguiles

Our Lady of Kibeho By Katori Hall

Grand Concourse By Heidi Shreck

A Great Wilderness By Samuel D. Hunter

The Humans By Stephen Karam

Lost Lake By David Auburn

Luna Gale By Rebecca Gilman

Marjorie Prime By Jordan Harrison

The Oldest Boy By Sarah Ruhl

Pocatello By Samuel D. Hunter

The Qualms By Bruce Norris

The Who and the What By Ayad Akhtar