Tony Watch 2016: New Shows

Since the Tony awards released their first of four lists deciding the eligibility of this season's Broadway shows, The Broadway Beat is doing a Tony Watch segment for the major awards covering the first quarter of the season.

The two new show categories haven't seen many eligible contenders yet, with each only having two shows so far. However one of the categories already has a clear front-runner a rare development this early.

Best New Play:

The only two new plays so far have been Therese Raquin and An Act of God. Neither got amazing reviews, but Therese Raquin gets the slight advantage in this race. This is far from finished though, with many shows left to open.

Current Predictions:

1. Therese Raquin

2. An Act of God

Other Potential Nominees:

King Charles III

The Father

Blackbird

Eclipsed

Our Mother's Brief Affair

Misery

China Doll

Therese Raquin

Best New Musical:

Only two new musicals opened in the first quarter of the season. However one of them has become a national sensation, with some of the best reviews in recent memory. Even in a season full of new musicals, it will be next to impossible to beat Hamilton this year.

Current Predictions: 

1. Hamilton

2. Amazing Grace

Other Potential Nominees:

Waitress

American Psycho

Tuck Everlasting

School of Rock

Shuffle Along

On Your Feet!

Bright Star

Allegiance

Disaster!

Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Lead Performers in a Musical

Since the Tony awards released their first of four lists deciding the eligibility of this season's Broadway shows, The Broadway Beat is doing a Tony Watch segment for the major awards covering the first quarter of the season.

Like with the featured categories, Hamilton is the dominant presence from the first quarter of the year, and is likely to have some strong Tony contenders come awards season.

Lead Actor in a Musical:
Only 4 musicals happened in the first quarter of the season, but already two of the nomination slots might be filled. Lin Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom Jr. are both likely nominees from Hamilton. As long as they don't split the vote, Odom seems to be the favorite to take home the award at this point.

Current Predictions:
1. Leslie Odom Jr.: Hamilton
2. Lin Manuel Miranda: Hamilton
3. Austin P. McKenzie: Spring Awakening
4. Cary Tedder: Dames at Sea
5. Josh Young: Amazing Grace

A few upcoming performances to look out for:
Danny Burnstein: Fiddler on the Roof
Benjamin Walker: American Psycho
Zachary Levi: She Loves Me
Alex Brightman: School of Rock
Andrew Keenan-Bolger: Tuck Everlasting
Paul Alexander Nolan: Bright Star
Telly Leung: Allegiance
Josh Segarra: On Your Feet

Leslie Odom Jr. in Hamilton

Lead Actress in a Musical:
For the last couple years the lead actress in a musical category has been one of the most competitive Tony races, and that doesn't look like it will change this year. Already Phillipa Soo has thrown her hat in the ring, and other contenders (including 4 Tony winners) are coming up this season.

Current Predictions:
1. Phillipa Soo: Hamilton
2. Eloise Kropp: Dames at Sea
3. Sandra Mae Frank: Spring Awakening
4. Erin Mackey: Amazing Grace

A few upcoming performances to look out for:
Cynthia Erivo: The Color Purple
Jessie Mueller: Waitress
Laura Benanti: She Loves Me
Audra McDonald: Shuffle Along
Lea Salonga: Allegiance
Ana Villafane:On Your Feet!
Carmen Cusack: Bright Star

Phillipa Soo and Lin-Manuel Miranda in Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Lead Performers in a Play

Since the Tony awards released their first of four lists deciding the eligibility of this season's Broadway shows, The Broadway Beat is doing a Tony Watch segment for the major awards covering the first quarter of the season.

Many of the eligible performers for lead actor and lead actress in a play opened in the first quarter. However, not so many of them are likely to be in Tony contention.

Lead Actor in a Play:
We've seen a couple big names already this season. James Earl Jones, Jim Parsons, Sam Rockwell, Clive Owen and Matthew Broderick all filled leading roles, along with newcomer Matt Ryan. However, Broderick, Ryan, Rockwell and Owen don't appear to be in the thick of the race.

Parsons's performance went over well, but a limited run summer show like An Act of God will likely be all but forgotten by Tony time. That leaves James Earl Jones at the head of this quarter's back.

Current Prediction:
1. James Earl Jones: The Gin Game
2. Jim Parsons: An Act of God
3. Sam Rockwell: Fool for Love
4. Matt Ryan: Therese Raquin
5. Matthew Broderick: Sylvia

A few upcoming performances to look out for:
Mark Strong: A View from the Bridge
Frank Langella: The Father
Tim Pigott Smith: King Charles III
Jeff Daniels: Blackbird
Forest Whitaker: Hughie
Gabriel Byrne: Long Days Journey Into Night
Al Pacino: China Doll

James Earl Jones with Cicely Tyson in The Gin Game

Lead Actress in a Play
Some of the ladies who have led plays in the first quarter of the season will have a much better chance at a nomination. Kiera Knightly, Annaleigh Ashford and Cicely Tyson are all very much in the conversation for a Tony nomination, with Nina Arianda as a potential spoiler. Right now we're giving the edge to Ashford, though its close between the three of them.

Current Prediction:
1. Annaleigh Ashford: Sylvia
2. Kiera Knightly: Therese Raquin
3. Cicely Tyson: The Gin Game
4. Nina Arianda: Fool for Love
5. Eve Best: Old Times

A few upcoming performances to look out for:
Laurie Metcalf: Misery
Jessica Lange: Long Days Journey Into Night
Lupita Nyong'o: Eclipsed
Michelle Williams: Blackbird
Sophie Okonedo: The Crucible
Linda Lavin: Our Mother's Brief Affair

Annaleigh Ashford and Matthew Broderick in Sylvia

Tony Watch 2016: Revivals

Since the Tony awards released their first of four lists deciding the eligibility of this season's Broadway shows, The Broadway Beat is doing a Tony Watch segment for the major awards covering the first quarter of the season.

This is one of the most exciting Broadway seasons in recent memory, and both revival categories have a lot of strong contenders this year. With no clear front runner, its still anybody's race.

Best Revival of a Musical:
As of this meeting 2 of the projected 5 best musical revival candidates have opened, so we can already get a good idea of the race. Right now the idea is Spring Awakening has a shot. Dames at Sea, not so much.

Current Prediction:
1. Spring Awakening
2. Dames at Sea

Other potential nominees:
The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me

Spring Awakening

Best Revival of a Play:
Most of the big revivals are coming later this season, but we've seen a few potential contenders open in the first quarter. The main theme critics brought up in their reviews was that many of this quarter's revivals didn't seem like they really called for a revival. Old Times, the Gin Game and Fool for Love don't look to be strong contenders. Sylvia might sneak in, but there are a lot of shows to come. Only time will tell.

Current Predictions:
1. Sylvia
2. Fool for love
3. Old Times
4. The Gin Game

Other Potential Nominees:
A View From the Bridge
Long Days Journey Into Night
Noises Off
Hughie
The Crucible

The Broadway revival of Sylvia

Tony Watch 2016: Featured Performers in a Musical

Since the Tony awards released their first of four lists deciding the eligibility of this season's Broadway shows, The Broadway Beat is doing a Tony Watch segment for the major awards covering the first quarter of the season.

While the first quarter was low on featured performers in plays, it has had a plethora of featured performers in musicals. a few of the season front runners for the award have already performed, thanks to the new musical Hamilton. But does anyone else from this first quarter even stand a chance?

Featured Actor in a Musical:

While the first quarter has seen a decent amount of featured actor in a musical candidates, only one is a real Tony threat, and that's Daveed Diggs. After getting raves in Hamilton, Diggs is all but a lock for the nomination, and the front runner for the Tony.

Current Prediction:

1. Daveed Diggs - Hamilton

2. Christopher Jackson - Hamilton

3. Jonathan Groff - Hamilton

4. Chuck Cooper - Amazing Grace

5. Tom Hewitt - Amazing Grace

A few upcoming performances to look out for:

Billy Porter - Shuffle Along

Gavin Creel - She Loves Me

Terrence Mann- Tuck Everlasting

Brian Stokes Mitchell - Shuffle Along

Roger Bart - Disaster!

Brandon Victor Dixon - Shuffle Along

Michael K. Lee - Allegiance

George Takei - Allegiance

Joshua Henry - Shuffle Along

Adam Pascal - Disaster!

Daveed Diggs and the Hamilton ensemble

Featured Actress in a Musical:

Similar to the actor category, we may have already seen the Tony winner for featured actress in a musical. Renee Elise Goldsberry is the likely frontrunner for the award. However unlike the other categories, we've seen another performance already this season that might earn a nomination. Lesli Margherita is the one lifesaver in the current revival of Dames at Sea, and her performance might just nab her a Tony nod.

Current Prediction:

1. Renee Elise Goldsberry - Hamilton

2. Lesli Margherita - Dames at Sea

3. Andrea Burns - On Your Feet!

4. Alma Cuervo - On Your Feet!

5. Krysta Rodriguez - Spring Awakening

A few upcoming performances to look out for:

Jennifer Hudson - The Color Purple

Keala Settle - Waitress

Alice Ripley - American Psycho

Jane Krakowski - She Loves Me

Jessica Hecht - Fiddler on the Roof

Kerry Butler - Disaster!

Jennifer Damiano - American Psycho

Carolee Carmello - Tuck Everlasting

Renee Elise Goldsberry in Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Tony eligibility, round 1/Featured performer in a play awards

Yesterday the Tony awards released their first of four lists deciding the eligibility of this season's Broadway shows. You can find their rulings here: Tony eligibility

To go with these announcements, we have developed preliminary predictions for how the shows discussed in eligibility will do Tony-wise in the main categories, and we'll be sharing them over the next few days. The shows discussed in eligibility were: An Act of God, Amazing Grace, Hamilton, Spring Awakening, Old Times, Fool for Love, The Gin Game, Dames at Sea, Sylvia, and Therese Raquin.

We're starting with the featured performer categories. This early in the season its always hard to get a sense of these awards, but we'll give it a shot. Keep in mind some of the performers listed in upcoming have already begun performances, but the Tony awards haven't ruled on their eligibility yet.

Featured Actor in a Play:
This session of eligibility has only presented one strong Tony contender in Gabriel Ebert. Depending on how other performances go over in the remaining months, he may have a shot at the award.

Current prediction:
1. Gabriel Ebert - Therese Raquin
2. Robert Sella - Sylvia
3. Gordon Joseph Weiss - Fool for Love
4. Christopher Fitzgerald - An Act of God
5.  Tom Pelphrey - Fool for Love

A few upcoming performances to look out for:
Richard Goulding - King Charles III
John Gallagher Jr. - Long Days Journey Into Night
Frank Wood - Hughie
Ciaran Hinds - The Crucible

Gabriel Ebert and Kiera Knightley in Therese Raquin

Featured Actress in a Play
There aren't even enough featured actresses in a play to round out a full slate of performances from this session. Luckily there are a good amount coming later in the season. The won actress from this session that has a good shot at the award is Judith Light in Therese Raquin.

Current prediction:
1. Judith Light - Therese Raquin
2. Julie White - Sylvia
3. Mary Wiseman - Therese Raquin

A few upcoming performances to look out for:
Megan Hilty - Noises Off
Saycon Sengbloh - Eclipsed
Phoebe Fox - A View from the Bridge
Zainab Jah- Eclipsed
Andrea Martin - Noises Off
Lydia Wilson - King Charles III

Judith Light and Kiera Knightley in Therese Raquin

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Musical

The Tonys are tomorrow, which means we've hit the last category in our Tony countdown. Every year this is one of the most highly contested awards, with close races every year since Book of Mormon won it. This year is no different, where multiple shows have a solid shot, making it hard to pick a favorite. The nominees are:

An American in Paris
Fun Home
Something Rotten!
The Visit

At least we can remove one of these shows from contention. The Visit has a few dedicated fans, but not nearly enough to truly contend for the Tony. Something Rotten! could have a chance at the award, but it would be an upset, as many critics that reviewed the show felt it should have done an out of town run to polish it more first.

The two shows at the thick of the competition are Fun Home and An American in Paris. After a critically acclaimed run at the Public last year, when Fun Home announced a Broadway transfer it was instantly tabbed as the front runner for the season. However An American in Paris, which many expected to do poorly, received fantastic reviews and is doing great at the box office. It's really anybody's race at this point.

Tony Odds:

Fun Home: 44%
An American in Paris: 42%
Something Rotten!: 13%
The Visit: 1%

Fun Home

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Play

With two days left until the Tonys, we move on to the award for best new play. This is actually one of the easiest to predict categories, so we'll keep it short. The nominees are:

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Disgraced
Hand to God
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2

Curious Incident will almost definitely win this award. It is the favorite to win in 4 other categories, and would take a giant upset to lose the Tony. The best chance after Curious would be Hand to God, hoping to take votes simply because it is an American work, like what Kinky Boots did to Matilda a few years ago. However it isn't likely that it will receive enough support. Disgraced and Wolf Hall are in the same boat, unlikely to win, but still very good shows.

Tony Odds:

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time: 88%
Hand to God: 7%
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2: 3%
Disgraced: 2%

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Musical Revival

This award is usually fairly straight forward simply because there aren't usually very many musical revivals. In the 3 of the past 5 years There haven't even been a full four nominees. This year is a little more competitive because of a few well reviewed shows. The nominees are:

The King and I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century

On the Town is the odd man out here. though it got good reviews, they weren't as stellar as the other two, and it has been open for much longer, losing a lot of its buzz. That leaves The King and I and On the Twentieth Century competing for the Tony. Both shows have a lot in common, a Tony nominated veteran actress as a leading lady, an extravagant nature, and excellent reviews being a few. However, if you look at the amount of nominations each show received this year, The King and I received 9 while On the Twentieth Century only received 5, which could be telling for the award race.

The King and I: 51%
On the Twentieth Century: 37%
On the Town: 12%

The Cast of The King and I

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Play Revival

There are 4 days left until the Tonys, which means it's time to move on to the big 4 awards. We're going to start with the most up in the air category, Best Play Revival, where only one of the nominees is still open. The nominees are:

The Elephant Man
Skylight
This is Our Youth
You Can't Take It With You

This is essentially a three way race for the Tony (sorry This is Our Youth). Skylight has the advantage of still being open, along with the positive reviews it received. You Can't Take It With You received mostly rave reviews, but closed a long time ago and didn't have a massive blockbuster name, but rather a cast of well respected actors. The Elephant Man closed in fall, but is now running again in London, which may bring back some buzz. It received positive notices, but will likely be helped most by the raves Bradley Cooper received, and the attention he brings to the show. Between these three its really anybody's game.

Tony Odds:

Skylight: 35%
You Can't Take It With You: 33%
The Elephant Man: 31%
This is Our Youth: 1%

Bill Nighy and Carey Mulligan in Skylight

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lead Actor in a Musical

We're on to our last category, and boy is it a tough one. There's really only one person who we can count out, which leaves this race pretty wide open. The nominees are:

Brian D'Arcy James (Something Rotten!)
Ken Watanabe (The King and I)
Michael Cerveris (Fun Home)
Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris)
Tony Yazbeck (On the Town)

Let's start with the easy one. Ken Watanabe will almost definitely not win this award. Many didn't think he would even get the nomination. With that being said, the next lowest on the ladder is Tony Yazbeck. He is definitely still in the running, but with a show that isn't selling well, and has been open for much longer than the other shows, he doesn't have much buzz going for him.

Robert Fairchild recently beat out Brian D'Arcy James for this year's Drama Desk Award, and for the Outer Critics Circle award, so it appears he has the advantage over James. However, Michael Cerveris wasn't eligible for either of those awards this year, and could be a spoiler for Fairchild in the race. And with a veteran performer like Brian D'Arcy James, you can never really count him out of it either, so this could be a tight race.

Tony Odds:

Michael Cerveris (Fun Home): 33%
Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris): 31%
Brian D'Arcy James (Something Rotten!): 25%
Tony Yazbeck (On the Town): 10%
Ken Watanabe (The King and I): 1%

Michael Cerveris with Sydney Lucas in Fun Home

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lead Actress in a Musical

If only all categories could be as simple as the lead performer in a play categories. Wouldn't that make life so much better? In this category, just like last year, there are three women really competing for this award, and any one of them could win it. The nominees are:

Beth Malone (Fun Home)
Chita Rivera (The Visit)
Kelli O'Hara (The King and I)
Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century)
Leanne Cope (An American in Paris)

Leanne Cope and Beth Malone are the long shots to win this award. Though both gave strong performances, this category is simply too crowded this year.

The remaining three are some of the biggest names ever on Broadway, making this a tough competition. This is Kelli O'hara's 6th Tony nomination, all within the last 11 years, and she hasn't won yet. The voters may decide she has earned it by now and give her the award for all her years of dedication to broadway. Kristin Chenoweth has won a Tony before, but its been awhile, and many have said that her role in On the 20th Century seems like it was written just for her, because she performs it so well. In addition, she is hosting the Tony awards this year, further ingratiating herself to the Broadway community. And lastly, The Queen of Broadway, Chita Rivera, the 10 time Tony nominee, 2 time Tony winner who is spearheading The Visit. She may face more problems, having won two Tonys already and being in a show that is struggling, but she is so beloved by the Broadway community that she might just get the votes anyway.

With this category, you'd be reasonable picking any of the three front runners, but we have to choose, so here goes.

Tony Odds:

Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century): 33%
Chita Rivera (The Visit): 32%
Kelli O'Hara (The King and I): 30%
Beth Malone (Fun Home): 4%
Leanne Cope (An American in Paris): 1%

Kristin Chenoweth in On the Twentieth Century

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lead Actor in a Play

This award gives a couple of new Broadway faces a chance to shine. Though there are some big names in the category, the two young men that stand the best chance at this award are both young, less experienced actors putting on intense performances. The nominees are:

Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Ben Miles (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Bill Nighy (Skylight)
Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man)
Steven Boyer (Hand to God)

The two actors that are essentially out of the race are Ben Miles and Bill Nighy, Nighy has name power, and Miles is a respected British actor, but neither is getting a lot of attention as real contenders for this award. Bradley Cooper may have a shot, and in many other seasons could be a front runner, but with his show being closed and a very competitive field he is unlikely to win this year, despite his name recognition.

The front runner in this category is Alex Sharp, playing a mentally challenger boy in Curious Incident, a very physically demanding role that also requires some top notch acting. This is Sharp's Broadway debut, fresh off of graduating from Juilliard last year, and is an exciting fresh face on Broadway. His main challenger is Steven Boyer, who plays Jason, a confused teenage boy, and Tyrone, Jason's demonic hand puppet. Boyer truly puts on an amazing show, switching from the scared teenager to the evil puppet seamlessly, and putting on an emotionally and physically draining performance. The question is, which performance was more demanding of the actor?

Tony Odds:

Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 49%
Steven Boyer (Hand to God): 32%
Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man): 15%
Ben Miles (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 3%
Bill Nighy (Skylight): 1%

Tony watch 2015: Award for Lead Actress in a Play

Both of the lead performer in a play categories have a clear front runner, with a couple nominees that might be able to pull of an upset. The nominees are:

Carey Mulligan (Skylight)
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles)
Geneva Carr (Hand to God)
Helen Mirren (The Audience)
Ruth Wilson (Constellations)

Elizabeth Moss and Ruth Wilson probably have the longest road to the Tony. Both of their shows have already closed, with Moss's show closing very early after an extremely short run. Their shows played at off times in the season, when less Tony voters may have been seeing shows. Both got solid reviews, but will likely be forgotten. Geneva Carr is also unlikely to compete for the win, as her role is verging on featured in a show where her costar Steven Boyer is the clear focal point.

Helen Mirren is the front runner for this award for many reasons. She is a veteran actress who has never won a Tony before, she won the Oliver for the same role she is playing now, she is well liked in the theatrical community, and she plays Queen Elizabeth, a prominent figure, over the span of 60 years of her life, playing all ages gracefully and masterfully. The only actress that realistically has even a small chance at pulling an upset is Carey mulligan for Skylight. Another brit, Mulligan puts on a very strong performance in Skylight, but probably not enough to take it from Dame Helen Mirren.

Helen Mirren (The Audience): 82%
Carey Mulligan (Skylight): 12%
Ruth Wilson (Constellations): 2%
Geneva Carr (Hand to God): 2%
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles): 2%

Helen Mirren in The Audience

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actor in a Musical

The Featured Actor in a Musical Category this year is filled with Broadway veterans, and it's anybody's game at this point. The nominees are:

Andy Karl (On the 20th Century)
Brad Oscar (Something Rotten!)
Brandon Uranowitz (An American in Paris)
Christian Borle (Something Rotten!)
Max Von Essen (An American in Paris)

The two men that will have the hardest time competing for this award are the boys from An American in Paris. Both got good reviews, especially Max Von Essen, but aren't as big of names as the other three, and got slightly worse reviews than the others. They also run the risk of taking votes from each other.

The Something Rotten! guys both got very good reviews, but in different ways. Borle gave a consistently good performance as William Shakespeare, a large featured role verging on a lead. Brad Oscar, on the other hand, was a very small role in the production, but lead arguably the most show-stopping number of the season, receiving standing ovations after it most nights. They also run the risks of stealing votes from each other.

The last nominee, Andy Karl, is the only one who doesn't have the risk of another actor in his show stealing votes from him. Andy Karl got rave reviews for his performance in On the 20th Century. On top of that, Karl got a lot of Broadway love for his run as Rocky last year in Rocky the Musical, which may carry over to this year. This could be a very close race.

Tony Odds:

Andy Karl (On the 20th Century): 32%
Christian Borle (Something Rotten!): 29%
Brad Oscar (Something Rotten!): 27%
Max Von Essen (An American in Paris): 10%
Brandon Uranowitz (An American in Paris): 2%

Andy Karl with Kristin Chenoweth in On the Twentieth Century

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actress in a Musical

Brace yourself everybody, this one's gonna be a tight race. The featured categories are difficult enough, but three nominees from one show, a child actress, and some Broadway veterans further complicate this one. The nominees are:

Emily Skeggs (Fun Home)
Judy Kuhn (Fun Home)
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I)
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home)
Victoria Clark (Gigi)

The only one who can really be ruled out here is Emily Skeggs. She gave a great performance, but the other two Fun Home ladies appear to have a much better shot. One of the biggest concerns with the Fun Home actresses is that they might split the vote. If voters who liked Fun Home split their votes between Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas, it opens up an opportunity for Ruthie Ann Miles or Victoria Clark.

Assuming the Fun Home actresses don't split the vote too much, the race would still be a toss up between Lucas and Kuhn. Judy Kuhn is a veteran Broadway actress, and this is her fourth nomination, with no win so far, which may give her some votes. Lucas's performance has arguably received more critical acclaim, but will Tony voters choose to honor a seasoned performer before an 11 year old making her debut?

Tony Odds:

Judy Kuhn (Fun Home): 33%
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home): 30%
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I): 21%
Victoria Clark (Gigi): 12%
Emily Skeggs (Fun Home): 4%

Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas in Fun Home

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actor in a Play

After a change in Tony nomination rules, it became possible for anywhere from 5-8 performers to be nominated in the acting categories, though 5 would still be most likely. The only category affected this year was the Featured Actor in a play category, where 6 performers were nominated. However, despite the extra nominee, this is probably the most straight-forward featured performance category, with a couple clear front runners. The nominees are:

Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man)
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway)
Matthew Beard (Skylight)
Micah Stock (It's Only a Play)
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Richard McCabe (The Audience)

For this award there are two tiers of competitors. The lower tier, that likely won't truly compete for the award, is full of new faces who are just beginning to break out onto the theater scene. K. Todd Freeman had a breakout performance in Airline Highway, but lack of name recognition and a struggling unknown show will hurt his chances. Matthew Beard is well liked in Skylight, but his role is very small and won't garner much attention. Micah Stock might have a small chance, but though his performance was well received, it doesn't seem like a Tony winning role.

The higher tier, that will really compete for the award, consists of some stage veterans. Alessandro Nivola appears to be entering his prime as a stage actor, with critically acclaimed performances in both of the last two seasons. His role is also the closest to being a lead role of any of the featured nominees. His show is closed, but The Elephant Man received so much buzz that it may be less detrimental to him. In a rare circumstance, the other two performers both won Olivier awards playing their current roles in London. Nathaniel Parker, playing King Henry VIII, won the Olivier in 2015 while Richard McCabe, playing Prime Minister Harold Wilson, won it in 2013. These three actors should have a heated race for the award

Tony Odds:

Richard McCabe (The Audience): 34%
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 31%
Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man): 23%
Micah Stock (It's Only a Play): 9%
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway): 2%
Matthew Beard (Skylight): 1%

Richard McCabe with Helen Mirren in The Audience

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actress in a Play

It is almost always difficult to name a true front runner in the featured performance categories, but we can narrow it down a little (hopefully). The nominees are:

Annaleigh Ashford (You Can't Take It With You)

Julie White (Airline Highway)

Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)

Patricia Clarkson (The Elephant Man)

Sarah Stiles (Hand to God)

Any of these women could realistically win the award, but some have better chances than others. The race will likely come down to Annaleigh Ashford and Lydia Leonard. Annaleigh Ashford got very strong reviews, and recently won the Outer Critics Circle award for Featured Actress in a Play. However, Lydia Leonard's show is still running, and she puts on a dominant performance as Anne Boleyn in the two part show. 

Julie White got very strong reviews for Airline Highway, but the show has struggled mightily, pushing its closing up by a week. The poor run of the play may hurt her chances. Sarah Stiles was a bit of a surprise as a nominee, but a well-deserving one, causing roaring laughter in Hand to God. However, against more seasoned nominees, in more meaty roles, she will likely be overlooked. Patricia Clarkson is the most famous of the nominees, and in a meaty role she might be able to steal enough votes for the Tony.

Tony Odds:

Annaleigh Ashford (You Can't Take It With You): 33%

Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 25%

Patricia Clarkson (The Elephant Man): 20%

Julie White (Airline Highway): 13%

Sarah Stiles (Hand to God): 9%

Annaleigh Ashford with Reg Rogers in You Can't Take It With You

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Director of a Musical

The award for director in a musical has a front runner, but unlike the director in a play award, it wouldn't be surprising to see one of the others steal the award. There is a lot of solid competition for the award this year. The nominees are:

Bartlett Sher (The King and I)
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!)
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)
John Rando (On the Town)
Sam Gold (Fun Home)

The director with the least chance of winning this award is John Rando, simply because his show has less buzz and isn't particularly revolutionary. The front runner is Sam Gold for Fun Home, who had to re-stage the musical on Broadway in an in-the-round style, and many critics seemed even more impressed with the new staging than his original off-broadway staging. However, Mr. Gold is by no means a lock to win the award.

An American in Paris has been gaining momentum, and much of that is thanks to Christopher Wheeldon's work on the show. However, much of his praised work has been on choreography, for which he is the front runner, so he may be looked over for directing. Casey Nicholaw took a show that had skipped its outta town run, and helped polish and prep it so that it was ready for a Broadway audience, which is no easy feat. Bartlett Sher took a musical that has had many revivals on Broadway, and brought a new direction to its staging. All of these nominees can steal some votes, and might even have a shot at the award.

Tony Odds:

Sam Gold (Fun Home): 42%
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 22%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!): 20%
Bartlett Sher (The King and I): 15%
John Rando (On the Town): 1%

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Director in a Play

This is the first year where the director categories have been expanded to five nominees. Luckily, as with many of the award categories for plays this year, there is a strong front runner, so the extra nominee shouldn't cause too much difficulty. The nominees are:

Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Marianne Elliot (Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God)
Scott Ellis (You Can't Take It With You)
Stephen Daldry (Skylight)

Marianne Elliot is the clear front-runner in this category. Curious Incident, which most think will dominate at the Tonys this year, will likely snag its director the award. The two potential challengers are Jeremy Herrin, who might snag a couple votes for the sheer magnitude of his show, and Moritz von Stuelpnagel, whose production was much smaller, but still enormously popular with critics.

Tony Odds:

Marianne Elliot (Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 88%
Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 5%
Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God): 4%
Scott Ellis (You Can't Take It With You): 2%
Stephen Daldry (Skylight): 1%

Tony Watch 2015: Award for best Score

This category might be one of the most straight forward categories of the year, because one musical that's gaining momentum in many other categories isn't eligible for this award. The nominees are:

Fun Home (Jeanine Tesori & Lisa Kron)
The Last Ship (Sting)
Something Rotten! (Wayne & Karey Kirkpatrick)
The Visit (John Kander & Fred Ebb)

The important ineligible show in this category is An American in Paris, which has been gaining momentum in many other races including best musical, but won't be able to challenge for this one. That leaves a pretty predictable race for the Tony. The Last Ship got Sting a nomination, but will almost definitely not be enough to win him the award. Same for Kander & Ebb, though they do have the emotional sway of this being the last show they worked on together before Ebb's death. Something Rotten has some witty lyrics and fun melodies, and may sway a few voters, but Fun Home should run away with the award fairly easily.

Tony Odds:

Fun Home (Jeanine Tesori & Lisa Kron): 85%
Something Rotten! (Wayne & Karey Kirkpatrick): 9%
The Visit (John Kander & Fred Ebb): 4%
The Last Ship (Sting): 2%

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Book of a Musical

The competition for Best Book has a front runner, but not an entirely dominant one. One of its fellow nominees may pull off the upset. The nominees are:

An American in Paris (Craig Lucas)

Fun Home (Lisa Kron)

Something Rotten! (Karey Kirkpatrick & John O'Farrell)

The Visit (Terrence McNally)

At the bottom of the heap for this award is Tony veteran Terrence McNally, whose book got mixed reviews for a show that is struggling at the box office. An American in Paris has a strong book, but because it is based on the movie it'd be tough for it to pull off the win.

The front runner for this category is Lisa Kron's book for Fun Home, and will likely take home the award. However, Something Rotten! may be able to swoop in and steal the Tony, as it is fresher and has more buzz, along with being a more upbeat musical, and having no source material to borrow from. But will that be enough for the win?

Tony Odds:

Fun Home (Lisa Kron): 55%

Something Rotten! (Karey Kirkpatrick & John O'Farrell): 35%

An American in Paris (Craig Lucas): 7%

The Visit (Terrence McNally): 3%

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Choreography

This season has had a lot of dance heavy musicals, and because of this the choreography award will be particularly competitive. In addition, this is the first year where the category has been expanded to five nominees, giving even more options. The nominees are:

Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!)
Christopher Gattelli (The King and I)
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)
Joshua Bergasse (On the Town)
Scott Graham and Steven Hoggett (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

This competition will likely come down to just two candidates. Casey Nicholaw is likely out, as Something Rotten had much less dancing than many of the other shows. Christopher Gattelli is likely out as well, having borrowed much of his choreography from the original production, which many thought would keep him from even being eligible. The Curious Incident Team may snag a few votes, just because its for a play, but because choreography is typically thought of as a musical award it will likely be out as well.

The main competition will boil down to Christopher Wheeldon and Joshua Bergasse. Two heavy dance shows, both received raves for their choreography. However, American in Paris has a few things going in its favor. Its more recent, and as such has more buzz. It's right in the thick of the competition for numerous awards, while this is On the Town's only major category that it will really compete for. Also Paris is a hit, grossing well every day, while On the Town's sales have been slowly tapering off. Will this be enough to sway the voters?

Tony Odds:

Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 45%
Joshua Bergasse (On the Town): 36%
Christopher Gattelli (The King and I): 8%
Scott Graham and Steven Hoggett (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 8%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!): 3%

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Orchestrations

Disclaimer! This category is one of the hardest categories to predict. Why? Because most people, including some Tony voters, aren't entirely sure what orchestrations mean, or how to tell if they are good or not. That being said, we can try to predict who they might choose. The nominees are:

Christopher Austin (An American in Paris)
John Clancy (Fun Home)
Larry Hochman (Something Rotten)
Rob Mathes (The Last Ship)

The only doubtful winner in this category is Rob Mathes, as people tend to vote for this award similarly to how they vote for best musical and score, and The Last Ship has almost no chance at those awards. The other factors that many voters may consider are orchestra size, and how loud or full the sound is (even though loud and full don't necessarily mean good. Fun Home has the likely win in Score and Musical, but American in Paris has the largest orchestra and Something Rotten! is certainly the loudest, which could make this a close race.

Tony Odds:

Christopher Austin (An American in Paris) 37%
John Clancy (Fun Home): 33%
Larry Hochman (Something Rotten): 25%
Rob Mathes (The Last Ship): 5%

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Scenic Design in a Musical

This year's scenic design competition will likely come down to two shows that have opposing strategies. Will the simpler more nuanced set win, or will the grandiose, extravagant set take the award? The nominees are:

Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris)
David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century)
David Zinn (Fun Home)
Michael Yeargan (The King and I)

At the bottom of this pile are the two Davids. Rockwell's set just wasn't quite extravagant enough to compete with the King and I, and while Zinn's set was nuanced, it was also very very bare and will likely be overlooked.

That leaves Crowley and Yeargan. Interestingly this year American in Paris's nomination was given to both the scenic designer and the projection designer (59 productions) which could lead to a new projections category in the near future. But for this year, it could give An American in Paris a boost as the projections were heavily used to great effect in the show. Overall this will be a matter of preference for the Tony voters. Can they appreciate the nuances of Crowley's set, or will they be too impressed by the magnitude of Yeargan's design?

Tony odds:

Michael Yeargan (The King and I): 42%
Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris): 41%
David Zinn (Fun Home): 12%
David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century): 5%