Disclaimer! This category is one of the hardest categories to predict. Why? Because most people, including some Tony voters, aren't entirely sure what orchestrations mean, or how to tell if they are good or not. That being said, we can try to predict who they might choose. The nominees are:
Christopher Austin (An American in Paris)
John Clancy (Fun Home)
Larry Hochman (Something Rotten)
Rob Mathes (The Last Ship)
The only doubtful winner in this category is Rob Mathes, as people tend to vote for this award similarly to how they vote for best musical and score, and The Last Ship has almost no chance at those awards. The other factors that many voters may consider are orchestra size, and how loud or full the sound is (even though loud and full don't necessarily mean good. Fun Home has the likely win in Score and Musical, but American in Paris has the largest orchestra and Something Rotten! is certainly the loudest, which could make this a close race.
Tony Odds:
Christopher Austin (An American in Paris) 37%
John Clancy (Fun Home): 33%
Larry Hochman (Something Rotten): 25%
Rob Mathes (The Last Ship): 5%
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