Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Play

With two days left until the Tonys, we move on to the award for best new play. This is actually one of the easiest to predict categories, so we'll keep it short. The nominees are:

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Disgraced
Hand to God
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2

Curious Incident will almost definitely win this award. It is the favorite to win in 4 other categories, and would take a giant upset to lose the Tony. The best chance after Curious would be Hand to God, hoping to take votes simply because it is an American work, like what Kinky Boots did to Matilda a few years ago. However it isn't likely that it will receive enough support. Disgraced and Wolf Hall are in the same boat, unlikely to win, but still very good shows.

Tony Odds:

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time: 88%
Hand to God: 7%
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2: 3%
Disgraced: 2%

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time