Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actor in a Play

After a change in Tony nomination rules, it became possible for anywhere from 5-8 performers to be nominated in the acting categories, though 5 would still be most likely. The only category affected this year was the Featured Actor in a play category, where 6 performers were nominated. However, despite the extra nominee, this is probably the most straight-forward featured performance category, with a couple clear front runners. The nominees are:

Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man)
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway)
Matthew Beard (Skylight)
Micah Stock (It's Only a Play)
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Richard McCabe (The Audience)

For this award there are two tiers of competitors. The lower tier, that likely won't truly compete for the award, is full of new faces who are just beginning to break out onto the theater scene. K. Todd Freeman had a breakout performance in Airline Highway, but lack of name recognition and a struggling unknown show will hurt his chances. Matthew Beard is well liked in Skylight, but his role is very small and won't garner much attention. Micah Stock might have a small chance, but though his performance was well received, it doesn't seem like a Tony winning role.

The higher tier, that will really compete for the award, consists of some stage veterans. Alessandro Nivola appears to be entering his prime as a stage actor, with critically acclaimed performances in both of the last two seasons. His role is also the closest to being a lead role of any of the featured nominees. His show is closed, but The Elephant Man received so much buzz that it may be less detrimental to him. In a rare circumstance, the other two performers both won Olivier awards playing their current roles in London. Nathaniel Parker, playing King Henry VIII, won the Olivier in 2015 while Richard McCabe, playing Prime Minister Harold Wilson, won it in 2013. These three actors should have a heated race for the award

Tony Odds:

Richard McCabe (The Audience): 34%
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 31%
Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man): 23%
Micah Stock (It's Only a Play): 9%
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway): 2%
Matthew Beard (Skylight): 1%

Richard McCabe with Helen Mirren in The Audience