Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actress in a Musical

Brace yourself everybody, this one's gonna be a tight race. The featured categories are difficult enough, but three nominees from one show, a child actress, and some Broadway veterans further complicate this one. The nominees are:

Emily Skeggs (Fun Home)
Judy Kuhn (Fun Home)
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I)
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home)
Victoria Clark (Gigi)

The only one who can really be ruled out here is Emily Skeggs. She gave a great performance, but the other two Fun Home ladies appear to have a much better shot. One of the biggest concerns with the Fun Home actresses is that they might split the vote. If voters who liked Fun Home split their votes between Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas, it opens up an opportunity for Ruthie Ann Miles or Victoria Clark.

Assuming the Fun Home actresses don't split the vote too much, the race would still be a toss up between Lucas and Kuhn. Judy Kuhn is a veteran Broadway actress, and this is her fourth nomination, with no win so far, which may give her some votes. Lucas's performance has arguably received more critical acclaim, but will Tony voters choose to honor a seasoned performer before an 11 year old making her debut?

Tony Odds:

Judy Kuhn (Fun Home): 33%
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home): 30%
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I): 21%
Victoria Clark (Gigi): 12%
Emily Skeggs (Fun Home): 4%

Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas in Fun Home