Tony watch 2015: Award for Lead Actress in a Play

Both of the lead performer in a play categories have a clear front runner, with a couple nominees that might be able to pull of an upset. The nominees are:

Carey Mulligan (Skylight)
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles)
Geneva Carr (Hand to God)
Helen Mirren (The Audience)
Ruth Wilson (Constellations)

Elizabeth Moss and Ruth Wilson probably have the longest road to the Tony. Both of their shows have already closed, with Moss's show closing very early after an extremely short run. Their shows played at off times in the season, when less Tony voters may have been seeing shows. Both got solid reviews, but will likely be forgotten. Geneva Carr is also unlikely to compete for the win, as her role is verging on featured in a show where her costar Steven Boyer is the clear focal point.

Helen Mirren is the front runner for this award for many reasons. She is a veteran actress who has never won a Tony before, she won the Oliver for the same role she is playing now, she is well liked in the theatrical community, and she plays Queen Elizabeth, a prominent figure, over the span of 60 years of her life, playing all ages gracefully and masterfully. The only actress that realistically has even a small chance at pulling an upset is Carey mulligan for Skylight. Another brit, Mulligan puts on a very strong performance in Skylight, but probably not enough to take it from Dame Helen Mirren.

Helen Mirren (The Audience): 82%
Carey Mulligan (Skylight): 12%
Ruth Wilson (Constellations): 2%
Geneva Carr (Hand to God): 2%
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles): 2%

Helen Mirren in The Audience