Tony Watch 2016: Lead Performers in a Musical

Since the Tony awards released their first of four lists deciding the eligibility of this season's Broadway shows, The Broadway Beat is doing a Tony Watch segment for the major awards covering the first quarter of the season.

Like with the featured categories, Hamilton is the dominant presence from the first quarter of the year, and is likely to have some strong Tony contenders come awards season.

Lead Actor in a Musical:
Only 4 musicals happened in the first quarter of the season, but already two of the nomination slots might be filled. Lin Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom Jr. are both likely nominees from Hamilton. As long as they don't split the vote, Odom seems to be the favorite to take home the award at this point.

Current Predictions:
1. Leslie Odom Jr.: Hamilton
2. Lin Manuel Miranda: Hamilton
3. Austin P. McKenzie: Spring Awakening
4. Cary Tedder: Dames at Sea
5. Josh Young: Amazing Grace

A few upcoming performances to look out for:
Danny Burnstein: Fiddler on the Roof
Benjamin Walker: American Psycho
Zachary Levi: She Loves Me
Alex Brightman: School of Rock
Andrew Keenan-Bolger: Tuck Everlasting
Paul Alexander Nolan: Bright Star
Telly Leung: Allegiance
Josh Segarra: On Your Feet

Leslie Odom Jr. in Hamilton

Lead Actress in a Musical:
For the last couple years the lead actress in a musical category has been one of the most competitive Tony races, and that doesn't look like it will change this year. Already Phillipa Soo has thrown her hat in the ring, and other contenders (including 4 Tony winners) are coming up this season.

Current Predictions:
1. Phillipa Soo: Hamilton
2. Eloise Kropp: Dames at Sea
3. Sandra Mae Frank: Spring Awakening
4. Erin Mackey: Amazing Grace

A few upcoming performances to look out for:
Cynthia Erivo: The Color Purple
Jessie Mueller: Waitress
Laura Benanti: She Loves Me
Audra McDonald: Shuffle Along
Lea Salonga: Allegiance
Ana Villafane:On Your Feet!
Carmen Cusack: Bright Star

Phillipa Soo and Lin-Manuel Miranda in Hamilton