Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lead Actor in a Musical

We're on to our last category, and boy is it a tough one. There's really only one person who we can count out, which leaves this race pretty wide open. The nominees are:

Brian D'Arcy James (Something Rotten!)
Ken Watanabe (The King and I)
Michael Cerveris (Fun Home)
Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris)
Tony Yazbeck (On the Town)

Let's start with the easy one. Ken Watanabe will almost definitely not win this award. Many didn't think he would even get the nomination. With that being said, the next lowest on the ladder is Tony Yazbeck. He is definitely still in the running, but with a show that isn't selling well, and has been open for much longer than the other shows, he doesn't have much buzz going for him.

Robert Fairchild recently beat out Brian D'Arcy James for this year's Drama Desk Award, and for the Outer Critics Circle award, so it appears he has the advantage over James. However, Michael Cerveris wasn't eligible for either of those awards this year, and could be a spoiler for Fairchild in the race. And with a veteran performer like Brian D'Arcy James, you can never really count him out of it either, so this could be a tight race.

Tony Odds:

Michael Cerveris (Fun Home): 33%
Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris): 31%
Brian D'Arcy James (Something Rotten!): 25%
Tony Yazbeck (On the Town): 10%
Ken Watanabe (The King and I): 1%

Michael Cerveris with Sydney Lucas in Fun Home