Tony Watch 2015: Award for Scenic Design in a Musical

This year's scenic design competition will likely come down to two shows that have opposing strategies. Will the simpler more nuanced set win, or will the grandiose, extravagant set take the award? The nominees are:

Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris)
David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century)
David Zinn (Fun Home)
Michael Yeargan (The King and I)

At the bottom of this pile are the two Davids. Rockwell's set just wasn't quite extravagant enough to compete with the King and I, and while Zinn's set was nuanced, it was also very very bare and will likely be overlooked.

That leaves Crowley and Yeargan. Interestingly this year American in Paris's nomination was given to both the scenic designer and the projection designer (59 productions) which could lead to a new projections category in the near future. But for this year, it could give An American in Paris a boost as the projections were heavily used to great effect in the show. Overall this will be a matter of preference for the Tony voters. Can they appreciate the nuances of Crowley's set, or will they be too impressed by the magnitude of Yeargan's design?

Tony odds:

Michael Yeargan (The King and I): 42%
Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris): 41%
David Zinn (Fun Home): 12%
David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century): 5%