Saturday, May 30, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lead Actress in a Musical

If only all categories could be as simple as the lead performer in a play categories. Wouldn't that make life so much better? In this category, just like last year, there are three women really competing for this award, and any one of them could win it. The nominees are:

Beth Malone (Fun Home)
Chita Rivera (The Visit)
Kelli O'Hara (The King and I)
Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century)
Leanne Cope (An American in Paris)

Leanne Cope and Beth Malone are the long shots to win this award. Though both gave strong performances, this category is simply too crowded this year.

The remaining three are some of the biggest names ever on Broadway, making this a tough competition. This is Kelli O'hara's 6th Tony nomination, all within the last 11 years, and she hasn't won yet. The voters may decide she has earned it by now and give her the award for all her years of dedication to broadway. Kristin Chenoweth has won a Tony before, but its been awhile, and many have said that her role in On the 20th Century seems like it was written just for her, because she performs it so well. In addition, she is hosting the Tony awards this year, further ingratiating herself to the Broadway community. And lastly, The Queen of Broadway, Chita Rivera, the 10 time Tony nominee, 2 time Tony winner who is spearheading The Visit. She may face more problems, having won two Tonys already and being in a show that is struggling, but she is so beloved by the Broadway community that she might just get the votes anyway.

With this category, you'd be reasonable picking any of the three front runners, but we have to choose, so here goes.

Tony Odds:

Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century): 33%
Chita Rivera (The Visit): 32%
Kelli O'Hara (The King and I): 30%
Beth Malone (Fun Home): 4%
Leanne Cope (An American in Paris): 1%

Kristin Chenoweth in On the Twentieth Century

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lead Actor in a Play

This award gives a couple of new Broadway faces a chance to shine. Though there are some big names in the category, the two young men that stand the best chance at this award are both young, less experienced actors putting on intense performances. The nominees are:

Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Ben Miles (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Bill Nighy (Skylight)
Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man)
Steven Boyer (Hand to God)

The two actors that are essentially out of the race are Ben Miles and Bill Nighy, Nighy has name power, and Miles is a respected British actor, but neither is getting a lot of attention as real contenders for this award. Bradley Cooper may have a shot, and in many other seasons could be a front runner, but with his show being closed and a very competitive field he is unlikely to win this year, despite his name recognition.

The front runner in this category is Alex Sharp, playing a mentally challenger boy in Curious Incident, a very physically demanding role that also requires some top notch acting. This is Sharp's Broadway debut, fresh off of graduating from Juilliard last year, and is an exciting fresh face on Broadway. His main challenger is Steven Boyer, who plays Jason, a confused teenage boy, and Tyrone, Jason's demonic hand puppet. Boyer truly puts on an amazing show, switching from the scared teenager to the evil puppet seamlessly, and putting on an emotionally and physically draining performance. The question is, which performance was more demanding of the actor?

Tony Odds:

Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 49%
Steven Boyer (Hand to God): 32%
Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man): 15%
Ben Miles (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 3%
Bill Nighy (Skylight): 1%

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Tony watch 2015: Award for Lead Actress in a Play

Both of the lead performer in a play categories have a clear front runner, with a couple nominees that might be able to pull of an upset. The nominees are:

Carey Mulligan (Skylight)
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles)
Geneva Carr (Hand to God)
Helen Mirren (The Audience)
Ruth Wilson (Constellations)

Elizabeth Moss and Ruth Wilson probably have the longest road to the Tony. Both of their shows have already closed, with Moss's show closing very early after an extremely short run. Their shows played at off times in the season, when less Tony voters may have been seeing shows. Both got solid reviews, but will likely be forgotten. Geneva Carr is also unlikely to compete for the win, as her role is verging on featured in a show where her costar Steven Boyer is the clear focal point.

Helen Mirren is the front runner for this award for many reasons. She is a veteran actress who has never won a Tony before, she won the Oliver for the same role she is playing now, she is well liked in the theatrical community, and she plays Queen Elizabeth, a prominent figure, over the span of 60 years of her life, playing all ages gracefully and masterfully. The only actress that realistically has even a small chance at pulling an upset is Carey mulligan for Skylight. Another brit, Mulligan puts on a very strong performance in Skylight, but probably not enough to take it from Dame Helen Mirren.

Helen Mirren (The Audience): 82%
Carey Mulligan (Skylight): 12%
Ruth Wilson (Constellations): 2%
Geneva Carr (Hand to God): 2%
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles): 2%

Helen Mirren in The Audience

Monday, May 25, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actor in a Musical

The Featured Actor in a Musical Category this year is filled with Broadway veterans, and it's anybody's game at this point. The nominees are:

Andy Karl (On the 20th Century)
Brad Oscar (Something Rotten!)
Brandon Uranowitz (An American in Paris)
Christian Borle (Something Rotten!)
Max Von Essen (An American in Paris)

The two men that will have the hardest time competing for this award are the boys from An American in Paris. Both got good reviews, especially Max Von Essen, but aren't as big of names as the other three, and got slightly worse reviews than the others. They also run the risk of taking votes from each other.

The Something Rotten! guys both got very good reviews, but in different ways. Borle gave a consistently good performance as William Shakespeare, a large featured role verging on a lead. Brad Oscar, on the other hand, was a very small role in the production, but lead arguably the most show-stopping number of the season, receiving standing ovations after it most nights. They also run the risks of stealing votes from each other.

The last nominee, Andy Karl, is the only one who doesn't have the risk of another actor in his show stealing votes from him. Andy Karl got rave reviews for his performance in On the 20th Century. On top of that, Karl got a lot of Broadway love for his run as Rocky last year in Rocky the Musical, which may carry over to this year. This could be a very close race.

Tony Odds:

Andy Karl (On the 20th Century): 32%
Christian Borle (Something Rotten!): 29%
Brad Oscar (Something Rotten!): 27%
Max Von Essen (An American in Paris): 10%
Brandon Uranowitz (An American in Paris): 2%

Andy Karl with Kristin Chenoweth in On the Twentieth Century


Saturday, May 23, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actress in a Musical

Brace yourself everybody, this one's gonna be a tight race. The featured categories are difficult enough, but three nominees from one show, a child actress, and some Broadway veterans further complicate this one. The nominees are:

Emily Skeggs (Fun Home)
Judy Kuhn (Fun Home)
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I)
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home)
Victoria Clark (Gigi)

The only one who can really be ruled out here is Emily Skeggs. She gave a great performance, but the other two Fun Home ladies appear to have a much better shot. One of the biggest concerns with the Fun Home actresses is that they might split the vote. If voters who liked Fun Home split their votes between Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas, it opens up an opportunity for Ruthie Ann Miles or Victoria Clark.

Assuming the Fun Home actresses don't split the vote too much, the race would still be a toss up between Lucas and Kuhn. Judy Kuhn is a veteran Broadway actress, and this is her fourth nomination, with no win so far, which may give her some votes. Lucas's performance has arguably received more critical acclaim, but will Tony voters choose to honor a seasoned performer before an 11 year old making her debut?

Tony Odds:

Judy Kuhn (Fun Home): 33%
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home): 30%
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I): 21%
Victoria Clark (Gigi): 12%
Emily Skeggs (Fun Home): 4%

Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas in Fun Home

Friday, May 22, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actor in a Play

After a change in Tony nomination rules, it became possible for anywhere from 5-8 performers to be nominated in the acting categories, though 5 would still be most likely. The only category affected this year was the Featured Actor in a play category, where 6 performers were nominated. However, despite the extra nominee, this is probably the most straight-forward featured performance category, with a couple clear front runners. The nominees are:

Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man)
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway)
Matthew Beard (Skylight)
Micah Stock (It's Only a Play)
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Richard McCabe (The Audience)

For this award there are two tiers of competitors. The lower tier, that likely won't truly compete for the award, is full of new faces who are just beginning to break out onto the theater scene. K. Todd Freeman had a breakout performance in Airline Highway, but lack of name recognition and a struggling unknown show will hurt his chances. Matthew Beard is well liked in Skylight, but his role is very small and won't garner much attention. Micah Stock might have a small chance, but though his performance was well received, it doesn't seem like a Tony winning role.

The higher tier, that will really compete for the award, consists of some stage veterans. Alessandro Nivola appears to be entering his prime as a stage actor, with critically acclaimed performances in both of the last two seasons. His role is also the closest to being a lead role of any of the featured nominees. His show is closed, but The Elephant Man received so much buzz that it may be less detrimental to him. In a rare circumstance, the other two performers both won Olivier awards playing their current roles in London. Nathaniel Parker, playing King Henry VIII, won the Olivier in 2015 while Richard McCabe, playing Prime Minister Harold Wilson, won it in 2013. These three actors should have a heated race for the award

Tony Odds:

Richard McCabe (The Audience): 34%
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 31%
Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man): 23%
Micah Stock (It's Only a Play): 9%
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway): 2%
Matthew Beard (Skylight): 1%

Richard McCabe with Helen Mirren in The Audience



Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actress in a Play

It is almost always difficult to name a true front runner in the featured performance categories, but we can narrow it down a little (hopefully). The nominees are:

Annaleigh Ashford (You Can't Take It With You)
Julie White (Airline Highway)
Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Patricia Clarkson (The Elephant Man)
Sarah Stiles (Hand to God)

Any of these women could realistically win the award, but some have better chances than others. The race will likely come down to Annaleigh Ashford and Lydia Leonard. Annaleigh Ashford got very strong reviews, and recently won the Outer Critics Circle award for Featured Actress in a Play. However, Lydia Leonard's show is still running, and she puts on a dominant performance as Anne Boleyn in the two part show. 

Julie White got very strong reviews for Airline Highway, but the show has struggled mightily, pushing its closing up by a week. The poor run of the play may hurt her chances. Sarah Stiles was a bit of a surprise as a nominee, but a well-deserving one, causing roaring laughter in Hand to God. However, against more seasoned nominees, in more meaty roles, she will likely be overlooked. Patricia Clarkson is the most famous of the nominees, and in a meaty role she might be able to steal enough votes for the Tony.

Tony Odds:

Annaleigh Ashford (You Can't Take It With You): 33%
Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 25%
Patricia Clarkson (The Elephant Man): 20%
Julie White (Airline Highway): 13%
Sarah Stiles (Hand to God): 9%

Annaleigh Ashford with Reg Rogers in You Can't Take It With You

Monday, May 18, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Director of a Musical

The award for director in a musical has a front runner, but unlike the director in a play award, it wouldn't be surprising to see one of the others steal the award. There is a lot of solid competition for the award this year. The nominees are:

Bartlett Sher (The King and I)
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!)
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)
John Rando (On the Town)
Sam Gold (Fun Home)

The director with the least chance of winning this award is John Rando, simply because his show has less buzz and isn't particularly revolutionary. The front runner is Sam Gold for Fun Home, who had to re-stage the musical on Broadway in an in-the-round style, and many critics seemed even more impressed with the new staging than his original off-broadway staging. However, Mr. Gold is by no means a lock to win the award.

An American in Paris has been gaining momentum, and much of that is thanks to Christopher Wheeldon's work on the show. However, much of his praised work has been on choreography, for which he is the front runner, so he may be looked over for directing. Casey Nicholaw took a show that had skipped its outta town run, and helped polish and prep it so that it was ready for a Broadway audience, which is no easy feat. Bartlett Sher took a musical that has had many revivals on Broadway, and brought a new direction to its staging. All of these nominees can steal some votes, and might even have a shot at the award.

Tony Odds:

Sam Gold (Fun Home): 42%
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 22%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!): 20%
Bartlett Sher (The King and I): 15%
John Rando (On the Town): 1%

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Director in a Play

This is the first year where the director categories have been expanded to five nominees. Luckily, as with many of the award categories for plays this year, there is a strong front runner, so the extra nominee shouldn't cause too much difficulty. The nominees are:

Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Marianne Elliot (Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God)
Scott Ellis (You Can't Take It With You)
Stephen Daldry (Skylight)

Marianne Elliot is the clear front-runner in this category. Curious Incident, which most think will dominate at the Tonys this year, will likely snag its director the award. The two potential challengers are Jeremy Herrin, who might snag a couple votes for the sheer magnitude of his show, and Moritz von Stuelpnagel, whose production was much smaller, but still enormously popular with critics.

Tony Odds:

Marianne Elliot (Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 88%
Jeremy Herrin (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 5%
Moritz von Stuelpnagel (Hand to God): 4%
Scott Ellis (You Can't Take It With You): 2%
Stephen Daldry (Skylight): 1%

Friday, May 15, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for best Score

This category might be one of the most straight forward categories of the year, because one musical that's gaining momentum in many other categories isn't eligible for this award. The nominees are:

Fun Home (Jeanine Tesori & Lisa Kron)
The Last Ship (Sting)
Something Rotten! (Wayne & Karey Kirkpatrick)
The Visit (John Kander & Fred Ebb)

The important ineligible show in this category is An American in Paris, which has been gaining momentum in many other races including best musical, but won't be able to challenge for this one. That leaves a pretty predictable race for the Tony. The Last Ship got Sting a nomination, but will almost definitely not be enough to win him the award. Same for Kander & Ebb, though they do have the emotional sway of this being the last show they worked on together before Ebb's death. Something Rotten has some witty lyrics and fun melodies, and may sway a few voters, but Fun Home should run away with the award fairly easily.

Tony Odds:

Fun Home (Jeanine Tesori & Lisa Kron): 85%
Something Rotten! (Wayne & Karey Kirkpatrick): 9%
The Visit (John Kander & Fred Ebb): 4%
The Last Ship (Sting): 2%

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Book of a Musical

The competition for Best Book has a front runner, but not an entirely dominant one. One of its fellow nominees may pull off the upset. The nominees are:

An American in Paris (Craig Lucas)
Fun Home (Lisa Kron)
Something Rotten! (Karey Kirkpatrick & John O'Farrell)
The Visit (Terrence McNally)

At the bottom of the heap for this award is Tony veteran Terrence McNally, whose book got mixed reviews for a show that is struggling at the box office. An American in Paris has a strong book, but because it is based on the movie it'd be tough for it to pull off the win.

The front runner for this category is Lisa Kron's book for Fun Home, and will likely take home the award. However, Something Rotten! may be able to swoop in and steal the Tony, as it is fresher and has more buzz, along with being a more upbeat musical, and having no source material to borrow from. But will that be enough for the win?

Tony Odds:

Fun Home (Lisa Kron): 55%
Something Rotten! (Karey Kirkpatrick & John O'Farrell): 35%
An American in Paris (Craig Lucas): 7%
The Visit (Terrence McNally): 3%

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Choreography

This season has had a lot of dance heavy musicals, and because of this the choreography award will be particularly competitive. In addition, this is the first year where the category has been expanded to five nominees, giving even more options. The nominees are:

Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!)
Christopher Gattelli (The King and I)
Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris)
Joshua Bergasse (On the Town)
Scott Graham and Steven Hoggett (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

This competition will likely come down to just two candidates. Casey Nicholaw is likely out, as Something Rotten had much less dancing than many of the other shows. Christopher Gattelli is likely out as well, having borrowed much of his choreography from the original production, which many thought would keep him from even being eligible. The Curious Incident Team may snag a few votes, just because its for a play, but because choreography is typically thought of as a musical award it will likely be out as well.

The main competition will boil down to Christopher Wheeldon and Joshua Bergasse. Two heavy dance shows, both received raves for their choreography. However, American in Paris has a few things going in its favor. Its more recent, and as such has more buzz. It's right in the thick of the competition for numerous awards, while this is On the Town's only major category that it will really compete for. Also Paris is a hit, grossing well every day, while On the Town's sales have been slowly tapering off. Will this be enough to sway the voters?

Tony Odds:

Christopher Wheeldon (An American in Paris): 45%
Joshua Bergasse (On the Town): 36%
Christopher Gattelli (The King and I): 8%
Scott Graham and Steven Hoggett (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 8%
Casey Nicholaw (Something Rotten!): 3%

Monday, May 11, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Orchestrations

Disclaimer! This category is one of the hardest categories to predict. Why? Because most people, including some Tony voters, aren't entirely sure what orchestrations mean, or how to tell if they are good or not. That being said, we can try to predict who they might choose. The nominees are:

Christopher Austin (An American in Paris)
John Clancy (Fun Home)
Larry Hochman (Something Rotten)
Rob Mathes (The Last Ship)

The only doubtful winner in this category is Rob Mathes, as people tend to vote for this award similarly to how they vote for best musical and score, and The Last Ship has almost no chance at those awards. The other factors that many voters may consider are orchestra size, and how loud or full the sound is (even though loud and full don't necessarily mean good. Fun Home has the likely win in Score and Musical, but American in Paris has the largest orchestra and Something Rotten! is certainly the loudest, which could make this a close race.

Tony Odds:

Christopher Austin (An American in Paris) 37%
John Clancy (Fun Home): 33%
Larry Hochman (Something Rotten): 25%
Rob Mathes (The Last Ship): 5%

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Scenic Design in a Musical

This year's scenic design competition will likely come down to two shows that have opposing strategies. Will the simpler more nuanced set win, or will the grandiose, extravagant set take the award? The nominees are:

Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris)
David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century)
David Zinn (Fun Home)
Michael Yeargan (The King and I)

At the bottom of this pile are the two Davids. Rockwell's set just wasn't quite extravagant enough to compete with the King and I, and while Zinn's set was nuanced, it was also very very bare and will likely be overlooked.

That leaves Crowley and Yeargan. Interestingly this year American in Paris's nomination was given to both the scenic designer and the projection designer (59 productions) which could lead to a new projections category in the near future. But for this year, it could give An American in Paris a boost as the projections were heavily used to great effect in the show. Overall this will be a matter of preference for the Tony voters. Can they appreciate the nuances of Crowley's set, or will they be too impressed by the magnitude of Yeargan's design?

Tony odds:

Michael Yeargan (The King and I): 42%
Bob Crowley and 59 Productions (An American in Paris): 41%
David Zinn (Fun Home): 12%
David Rockwell (On the Twentieth Century): 5%


Friday, May 8, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Scenic Design in a Play

This may end up being one of the easiest categories of the year. While other categories may have front runners, this one has a juggernaut that has been the assumed winner for basically the entire season. The nominees are:

Bob Crowley (Skylight)
Bunny Christie and Finn Ross (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall)
David Rockwell (You Can't Take It With You)

We'll keep this one short. You could almost pick and choose who to put in spots 2-4 because it doesn't seem to matter a whole lot. If anyone besides Bunny Christie and Finn Ross win this award, it could be the biggest upset of the season.

Bunny Christie and Finn Ross (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 94%
David Rockwell (You Can't Take It With You): 2%
Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall): 2%
Bob Crowley (Skylight): 2%

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Costumes in a Musical

This year's group of nominees for costume design in a musical is filled with elegant costumes and big names, but luckily there is a front runner to help us out on our predictions. The nominees are:

Bob Crowley (An American in Paris)
Catherine Zuber (The King and I)
Gregg Barnes (Something Rotten!)
William Ivey Long (On the Twentieth Century)

William Ivey Long may be the most respected costume designer in Broadway history, and as such he will always be a contender when he gets a nomination. However, this year the Tony will more likely go to one of the other big name costume designers. Bob Crowley has a shot at the award, but his chances are more realistic for his costume design for The Audience, where he is the front runner. The most likely winner here is Catherine Zuber, purely because of the volume of extravagant costumes she made for The King and I, and the quality with which she made them. Gregg Barnes did a fair job making costumes for Something Rotten! but a few large codpieces likely won't win him the Tony.

Tony Odds:

Catherine Zuber (The King and I): 57%
Bob Crowley (An American in Paris): 30%
William Ivey Long (On the Twentieth Century): 10%
Gregg Barnes (Something Rotten!): 3%

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Costumes in a Play

The costumes in a play has a pretty clear front runner this year, however with tech awards you never know. A bigger Broadway name could steal the award from a lesser known designer purely due to notoriety. The nominees are:

Bob Crowley (The Audience)
Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall)
David Zinn (Airline Highway)
Jane Greenwood (You Can't Take It With You)

These 4 nominees have a total of 46 Tony nominations and wins between them. Of those 46, Jane Greenwood and Bob Crowley have 39. Both are veteran costume and scenic designers, with Miss Greenwood even having won a Tony Lifetime Achievement award. This prestige could garner either of them some Tony votes. However, the front runner is Christopher Oram. Oram is also a Tony winner, and Wolf Hall required much more extravagant costumes than the other shows, being a period piece in Shakespearean style. The underdog this year is David Zinn, an up and coming designer with great promise, but one who will likely be looked over in this strong field.

Tony Odds:
Christopher Oram (Wolf Hall): 55%
Bob Crowley (The Audience): 25%
Jane Greenwood (You Can't Take It With You): 15%
David Zinn (Airline Highway): 5%


Saturday, May 2, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lighting in a Musical

Only our second category and already things are getting tough. There's no clear frontrunner in this category, and because "good" lighting design is very opinion based, this award could go many directions. the nominees are:

Ben Stanton (Fun Home)
Donald Holder (The King and I)
Japhy Weideman (The Visit)
Natasha Katz (An American in Paris)

The least likely winner in this group is Ben Stanton. Though Fun Home's lighting progresses the show well, there's nothing particularly flashy or moving about it. Donald Holder has a shot at the award for The King and I, but again the lighting seems to serve the purpose of following the story rather than adding to it.

That leaves Japhy Weideman and Natasha Katz, both of whom were also nominated for Lighting in a play, fighting for the award. Between these two its a real toss up, as both lighting designs were acclaimed by most critics. Because this category is so subjective, it could really go either way.

Tony Odds:

Natasha Katz (An American in Paris): 34%
Japhy Weideman (The Visit): 31%
Donald Holder (The King and I): 20%
Ben Stanton (Fun Home): 5%

Friday, May 1, 2015

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lighting in a Play

Now that the nominations are out, The Broadway Beat will begin analyzing the awards themselves. Today's award is Lighting Design in a Play. The 4 nominees are:

Japhy Weideman (Airline Highway)
Natasha Katz (Skylight)
Paule Constable (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Paul Constable and David Plater (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)

With two nominations, Paul Constable is the clear front runner in this category. Not only that, this category is fairly straight forward, as Curious Incident had one of the most intricately and dazzling lit sets ever on Broadway, and the lighting scheme was essential to the lighting of the show. Weideman and Katz don't stand much of a chance, but both were also nominated for lighting in a musical, which should be more competitive. Wolf Hall is probably the runner up for its stunning lighting design, and in any other season might have a realistic shot at winning, but this award is all but locked up already.

Tony odds:

Paule Constable (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 92%
Paul Constable and David Plater (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 6%
Natasha Katz (Skylight): 1%
Japhy Weideman (Airline Highway): 1%