Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lead Actress in a Musical

If only all categories could be as simple as the lead performer in a play categories. Wouldn't that make life so much better? In this category, just like last year, there are three women really competing for this award, and any one of them could win it. The nominees are:

Beth Malone (Fun Home)
Chita Rivera (The Visit)
Kelli O'Hara (The King and I)
Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century)
Leanne Cope (An American in Paris)

Leanne Cope and Beth Malone are the long shots to win this award. Though both gave strong performances, this category is simply too crowded this year.

The remaining three are some of the biggest names ever on Broadway, making this a tough competition. This is Kelli O'hara's 6th Tony nomination, all within the last 11 years, and she hasn't won yet. The voters may decide she has earned it by now and give her the award for all her years of dedication to broadway. Kristin Chenoweth has won a Tony before, but its been awhile, and many have said that her role in On the 20th Century seems like it was written just for her, because she performs it so well. In addition, she is hosting the Tony awards this year, further ingratiating herself to the Broadway community. And lastly, The Queen of Broadway, Chita Rivera, the 10 time Tony nominee, 2 time Tony winner who is spearheading The Visit. She may face more problems, having won two Tonys already and being in a show that is struggling, but she is so beloved by the Broadway community that she might just get the votes anyway.

With this category, you'd be reasonable picking any of the three front runners, but we have to choose, so here goes.

Tony Odds:

Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century): 33%
Chita Rivera (The Visit): 32%
Kelli O'Hara (The King and I): 30%
Beth Malone (Fun Home): 4%
Leanne Cope (An American in Paris): 1%

Kristin Chenoweth in On the Twentieth Century

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lead Actor in a Play

This award gives a couple of new Broadway faces a chance to shine. Though there are some big names in the category, the two young men that stand the best chance at this award are both young, less experienced actors putting on intense performances. The nominees are:

Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)
Ben Miles (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Bill Nighy (Skylight)
Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man)
Steven Boyer (Hand to God)

The two actors that are essentially out of the race are Ben Miles and Bill Nighy, Nighy has name power, and Miles is a respected British actor, but neither is getting a lot of attention as real contenders for this award. Bradley Cooper may have a shot, and in many other seasons could be a front runner, but with his show being closed and a very competitive field he is unlikely to win this year, despite his name recognition.

The front runner in this category is Alex Sharp, playing a mentally challenger boy in Curious Incident, a very physically demanding role that also requires some top notch acting. This is Sharp's Broadway debut, fresh off of graduating from Juilliard last year, and is an exciting fresh face on Broadway. His main challenger is Steven Boyer, who plays Jason, a confused teenage boy, and Tyrone, Jason's demonic hand puppet. Boyer truly puts on an amazing show, switching from the scared teenager to the evil puppet seamlessly, and putting on an emotionally and physically draining performance. The question is, which performance was more demanding of the actor?

Tony Odds:

Alex Sharp (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time): 49%
Steven Boyer (Hand to God): 32%
Bradley Cooper (The Elephant Man): 15%
Ben Miles (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 3%
Bill Nighy (Skylight): 1%

Tony watch 2015: Award for Lead Actress in a Play

Both of the lead performer in a play categories have a clear front runner, with a couple nominees that might be able to pull of an upset. The nominees are:

Carey Mulligan (Skylight)
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles)
Geneva Carr (Hand to God)
Helen Mirren (The Audience)
Ruth Wilson (Constellations)

Elizabeth Moss and Ruth Wilson probably have the longest road to the Tony. Both of their shows have already closed, with Moss's show closing very early after an extremely short run. Their shows played at off times in the season, when less Tony voters may have been seeing shows. Both got solid reviews, but will likely be forgotten. Geneva Carr is also unlikely to compete for the win, as her role is verging on featured in a show where her costar Steven Boyer is the clear focal point.

Helen Mirren is the front runner for this award for many reasons. She is a veteran actress who has never won a Tony before, she won the Oliver for the same role she is playing now, she is well liked in the theatrical community, and she plays Queen Elizabeth, a prominent figure, over the span of 60 years of her life, playing all ages gracefully and masterfully. The only actress that realistically has even a small chance at pulling an upset is Carey mulligan for Skylight. Another brit, Mulligan puts on a very strong performance in Skylight, but probably not enough to take it from Dame Helen Mirren.

Helen Mirren (The Audience): 82%
Carey Mulligan (Skylight): 12%
Ruth Wilson (Constellations): 2%
Geneva Carr (Hand to God): 2%
Elizabeth Moss (The Heidi Chronicles): 2%

Helen Mirren in The Audience

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actor in a Musical

The Featured Actor in a Musical Category this year is filled with Broadway veterans, and it's anybody's game at this point. The nominees are:

Andy Karl (On the 20th Century)
Brad Oscar (Something Rotten!)
Brandon Uranowitz (An American in Paris)
Christian Borle (Something Rotten!)
Max Von Essen (An American in Paris)

The two men that will have the hardest time competing for this award are the boys from An American in Paris. Both got good reviews, especially Max Von Essen, but aren't as big of names as the other three, and got slightly worse reviews than the others. They also run the risk of taking votes from each other.

The Something Rotten! guys both got very good reviews, but in different ways. Borle gave a consistently good performance as William Shakespeare, a large featured role verging on a lead. Brad Oscar, on the other hand, was a very small role in the production, but lead arguably the most show-stopping number of the season, receiving standing ovations after it most nights. They also run the risks of stealing votes from each other.

The last nominee, Andy Karl, is the only one who doesn't have the risk of another actor in his show stealing votes from him. Andy Karl got rave reviews for his performance in On the 20th Century. On top of that, Karl got a lot of Broadway love for his run as Rocky last year in Rocky the Musical, which may carry over to this year. This could be a very close race.

Tony Odds:

Andy Karl (On the 20th Century): 32%
Christian Borle (Something Rotten!): 29%
Brad Oscar (Something Rotten!): 27%
Max Von Essen (An American in Paris): 10%
Brandon Uranowitz (An American in Paris): 2%

Andy Karl with Kristin Chenoweth in On the Twentieth Century

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actress in a Musical

Brace yourself everybody, this one's gonna be a tight race. The featured categories are difficult enough, but three nominees from one show, a child actress, and some Broadway veterans further complicate this one. The nominees are:

Emily Skeggs (Fun Home)
Judy Kuhn (Fun Home)
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I)
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home)
Victoria Clark (Gigi)

The only one who can really be ruled out here is Emily Skeggs. She gave a great performance, but the other two Fun Home ladies appear to have a much better shot. One of the biggest concerns with the Fun Home actresses is that they might split the vote. If voters who liked Fun Home split their votes between Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas, it opens up an opportunity for Ruthie Ann Miles or Victoria Clark.

Assuming the Fun Home actresses don't split the vote too much, the race would still be a toss up between Lucas and Kuhn. Judy Kuhn is a veteran Broadway actress, and this is her fourth nomination, with no win so far, which may give her some votes. Lucas's performance has arguably received more critical acclaim, but will Tony voters choose to honor a seasoned performer before an 11 year old making her debut?

Tony Odds:

Judy Kuhn (Fun Home): 33%
Sydney Lucas (Fun Home): 30%
Ruthie Ann Miles (The King and I): 21%
Victoria Clark (Gigi): 12%
Emily Skeggs (Fun Home): 4%

Judy Kuhn and Sydney Lucas in Fun Home

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actor in a Play

After a change in Tony nomination rules, it became possible for anywhere from 5-8 performers to be nominated in the acting categories, though 5 would still be most likely. The only category affected this year was the Featured Actor in a play category, where 6 performers were nominated. However, despite the extra nominee, this is probably the most straight-forward featured performance category, with a couple clear front runners. The nominees are:

Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man)
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway)
Matthew Beard (Skylight)
Micah Stock (It's Only a Play)
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)
Richard McCabe (The Audience)

For this award there are two tiers of competitors. The lower tier, that likely won't truly compete for the award, is full of new faces who are just beginning to break out onto the theater scene. K. Todd Freeman had a breakout performance in Airline Highway, but lack of name recognition and a struggling unknown show will hurt his chances. Matthew Beard is well liked in Skylight, but his role is very small and won't garner much attention. Micah Stock might have a small chance, but though his performance was well received, it doesn't seem like a Tony winning role.

The higher tier, that will really compete for the award, consists of some stage veterans. Alessandro Nivola appears to be entering his prime as a stage actor, with critically acclaimed performances in both of the last two seasons. His role is also the closest to being a lead role of any of the featured nominees. His show is closed, but The Elephant Man received so much buzz that it may be less detrimental to him. In a rare circumstance, the other two performers both won Olivier awards playing their current roles in London. Nathaniel Parker, playing King Henry VIII, won the Olivier in 2015 while Richard McCabe, playing Prime Minister Harold Wilson, won it in 2013. These three actors should have a heated race for the award

Tony Odds:

Richard McCabe (The Audience): 34%
Nathaniel Parker (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 31%
Alessandro Nivola (The Elephant Man): 23%
Micah Stock (It's Only a Play): 9%
K. Todd Freeman (Airline Highway): 2%
Matthew Beard (Skylight): 1%

Richard McCabe with Helen Mirren in The Audience

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Featured Actress in a Play

It is almost always difficult to name a true front runner in the featured performance categories, but we can narrow it down a little (hopefully). The nominees are:

Annaleigh Ashford (You Can't Take It With You)

Julie White (Airline Highway)

Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2)

Patricia Clarkson (The Elephant Man)

Sarah Stiles (Hand to God)

Any of these women could realistically win the award, but some have better chances than others. The race will likely come down to Annaleigh Ashford and Lydia Leonard. Annaleigh Ashford got very strong reviews, and recently won the Outer Critics Circle award for Featured Actress in a Play. However, Lydia Leonard's show is still running, and she puts on a dominant performance as Anne Boleyn in the two part show. 

Julie White got very strong reviews for Airline Highway, but the show has struggled mightily, pushing its closing up by a week. The poor run of the play may hurt her chances. Sarah Stiles was a bit of a surprise as a nominee, but a well-deserving one, causing roaring laughter in Hand to God. However, against more seasoned nominees, in more meaty roles, she will likely be overlooked. Patricia Clarkson is the most famous of the nominees, and in a meaty role she might be able to steal enough votes for the Tony.

Tony Odds:

Annaleigh Ashford (You Can't Take It With You): 33%

Lydia Leonard (Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2): 25%

Patricia Clarkson (The Elephant Man): 20%

Julie White (Airline Highway): 13%

Sarah Stiles (Hand to God): 9%

Annaleigh Ashford with Reg Rogers in You Can't Take It With You