Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actor in a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our final category before the nominations are announced is leading actor in a musical. In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actor in a Musical:

This category has a few different tiers of performers. The bottom tier is full of young talents with their first big broadway roles (Telly Leung, Austin McKenzie and Cary Tedder) along with Josh Young who has been inconsistent. The next tier is young Broadway actors with some experience under their belts that just haven't quite hit the elite level yet (Josh Segarra and Andrew Keenan-Bolger.)

That leaves six men competing for five spots. Danny Burstein, Leslie Odom Jr. and Lin-Manuel Miranda all seem like they will be nominated, and it would be a big upset if any were left out. The last three will be competing for the last slots, and any of the three could make it. Levi, Walker and Brightman all received very good reviews in positively received shows. Brightman and Walker benefit from having the sole lead in their shows, while Levi shares the spotlight with Laura Benanti, but Levi's show received better roles overall. This category might even end up with a sixth nominee with how close the race looks.

Danny Burstein (Fiddler on the Roof): 90%

Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton): 70%

Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton): 65%

Benjamin Walker (American Psycho): 48%

Alex Brightman (School of Rock): 45%

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Zachary Levi (She Loves Me): 40%

Andrew Keenan-Bolger (Tuck Everlasting): 15%

Josh Segarra (On Your Feet): 8%

Austin P. McKenzie (Spring Awakening): 5%

Telly Leung (Allegiance): 2%

Cary Tedder (Dames at Sea): 1%

Josh Young (Amazing Grace): 1%

Danny Burstein in Fiddler on the Roof

Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actress in a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our next category, leading actress in a musical, is full of powerhouse women, and just like the last couple years should be a tight battle for the award. In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:

Like the last couple of years, this category could be close come Tony time. Cynthia Erivo seems to have the lead right now, but Laura Benanti and Jessie Mueller both are right up there with her. All three seem like very likely nominees, and it would be a true upset if any of them missed out on a nomination.

On the other end of the spectrum, Erin Mackey, Eloise Kropp and Sandra Mae Frank all have no chance, giving fine performances in long closed shows. Sarah Charles Lewis and Lea Salonga likely won't make it either, though both received fairly good reviews.

That leaves four women fighting for two spots. Phillipa Soo has one of the most subtle, underrated parts in Hamiton, and though she was widely loved by critics, this is a chance to honor some non-Hamilton performers which could hurt her chances. Carmen Cusack got some rave reviews, but her musical itself didn't do so well, which could be a problem. Ana Villafane got great reviews in her Broadway debut, but in a very packed year she might lose out to some veteran actresses. Lastly we have Audra, who hasn't missed out on a Tony nomination since 2004, being nominated for her last three performances, and winning the last two. Is this the year she misses out?


Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple): 80%
Laura Benanti (She Loves Me): 65%
Jessie Mueller (Waitress): 65%
Phillipa Soo (Hamilton): 42%
Carmen Cusack (Bright Star): 40%
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Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along): 35%
Ana Villafane (On Your Feet): 25%
Lea Salonga (Allegiance): 8%
Sarah Charles Lewis (Tuck Everlasting): 3%
Sandra Mae Frank (Spring Awakening): 1%
Eloise Kropp (Dames at Sea): 1%
Erin Mackey (Amazing Grace): 1%

Cynthia Erivo in The Color Purple

Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actor in a Play Nomination Predictions

Next up is the category for best lead actor in a play! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actor in a Play:

This category has the most potential nominees of the leading acting categories, and as such it has the most that have no real shot. The bottom 4 names on the list didn't get good enough reviews to stand a real chance. The next 5 received decent notices, but likely not quite the caliber needed to steal a nomination, though James Earl Jones might get some veteran votes, and Sam Rockwell managed to nab a drama league nomination.

That leaves 7 actors fighting it out for the 5 spots. Mark Strong should be considered a lock and the early front-runner, especially since he won the Olivier for this role last year. After that its very much a toss up for the remaining slots. Frank Langella is a veteran with great reviews on the Father so he'll most likely make it in. Gabriel Byrne is in a similar situation for Long Day's Journey Into Night. Tim Pigott-Smith got solid reviews, but his show is closed while some of his competitors are still running. Ferguson has the star power, but his comedic role might be overlooked for dramatic powerhouses. Whishaw and Daniels also received positive notices for their roles, but not quite at the level of Strong's. Any of these names could easily grab one of the 5 spots.

Mark Strong (A View From the Bridge): 90%
Frank Langella (The Father): 75%
Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III): 55%
Ben Whishaw (The Crucible): 48%
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Fully Committed): 45%
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Gabriel Byrne (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 40%
Jeff Daniels (Blackbird): 35%
Sam Rockwell (Fool for Love): 15%
James Earl Jones (The Gin Game): 15%
Forest Whitaker (Hughie): 10%
Jim Parsons (An Act of God): 10%
Matt Ryan (Therese Raquin): 5%
Bruce Willis (Misery): 3%
Al Pacino (China Doll): 1%
Clive Owen (Old Times): 1%
Matthew Broderick (Sylvia): 1%

Mark Strong and the cast of A View From the Bridge

Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actress in a Play Nomination Predictions

Now it's time for the lead performer awards, and we're starting with the best lead actress in a play category! In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:

This is probably the most straight forward of the lead performer categories. Lupita Nyong'o and Jessica Lange are all but locks. Michelle Williams and Sophie Okonedo also seem like they'll have a solid shot. Nicola Walker used to a worrisome pick, but her and Lange are the only two to be nominated for every other major award, which makes her chances better. It also helps that Knightley, Metcalf and Ashford were all in shows that received far inferior reviews.


Lupita Nyong'o (Eclipsed): 85%
Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey Into Night): 80%
Michelle Williams (Blackbird): 45%
Sophie Okonedo (The Crucible): 45%
Nicola Walker (A View From the Bridge): 40%
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Kiera Knightley (Therese Raquin): 20%
Laurie Metcalf (Misery): 15%
Annaleigh Ashford (Sylvia): 12%
Nina Arianda (Fool for Love): 8%
Cicely Tyson (The Gin Game): 5%
Linda Lavin (Our Mother's Brief Affair): 3%
Kelly Reilly (Old Times): 1%
Eve Best (Old Times): 1%

Lupita Nyong'o in Eclipsed

Tony Watch 2016: Best Musical Nomination Predictions

Up next we have our predictions for best new musical. Because of the number of musical revivals that opened this year, there will be at least 4 nominees in this category, with potential for a fifth if there is a small enough difference in votes between the fourth and fifth options.

Best Musical:

Usually this category is saved for last because it is the most highly anticipated. However, due to the juggernaut that is Hamilton, the category is much less exciting this year. But while the award itself is all but already won, the nominations are anything but set. Of the 11 new musicals this season, 8 have a realistic shot at the nomination (sorry Allegiance, Amazing Grace and Disaster!).

Waitress seems the next most likely to be nominated, but after that its completely up in the air. School of Rock got positive reviews but no raves. Tuck and American Psycho got a mix of very positive and fairly negative reviews. Bright Star and On Your Feet! both got fairly middle of the road reviews, and Shuffle Along has a lot of potential, but preview audiences have been less than impressed, and the show is pushing to be included as a revival instead.

Complicating matters further, Shuffle Along hasn't been eligible for most other awards this season, and Hamilton was eligible last season, which has led to all 6 of the other major contenders getting a Drama League nomination, and 5 of the 6 getting and Outer Critics nomination (School of Rock was left out. It really is up in the air right now, and this category might end up with 5 nominees.

Hamilton: 99%
Waitress: 70%
Shuffle Along, Or, The Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed: 44%
School of Rock: 40%
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American Psycho: 38%
Tuck Everlasting: 35%
On Your Feet!: 25%
Bright Star: 20%
Disaster!: 5%
Allegiance: 1%
Amazing Grace: 1%

A scene from Hamilton

Tony Watch 2016: Best Play Nomination Predictions

Next up in our Tony Watch series is the best play category. Because of the number of musicals that opened this year, there will be at least 4 nominees in this category, with potential for a fifth if there is a small enough difference in votes between the fourth and fifth options.

Best Play:

This category is about as straight forward as the best musical revival category when it comes to nominations. After solid reviews for The Father it would take a major upset for a show like Therese Raquin or An Act of God to get a nomination. However this will be one of the most exciting categories for the award itself, as all four shows have a realistic shot at the award, something that can't be said for almost any other category.

Eclipsed: 82%
The Humans: 80%
King Charles III: 78%
The Father: 65%
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Therese Raquin: 30%
An Act of God: 20%
Misery: 1%
China Doll: 1%
Our Mother's Brief Affair: 1%

A scene from Eclipsed

Tony Watch 2016: Best Revival of a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our next segment is the predictions for best revival of a musical. Because of the number of musical revivals that opened this year, there will be at least 3 nominees in this category, with potential for a fourth if there is a small enough difference in votes between the third and fourth options.

Best Revival of a Musical:

This is probably the most straight forward of all the categories. Dames at Sea has no chance at a nomination. She Loves Me, The Color Purple and Fiddler on the Roof are all but locks. Spring Awakening's only chance is drawing enough votes to warrant a fourth nomination, but that seems very unlikely at this point.


She Loves Me: 90%
The Color Purple: 85%
Fiddler on the Roof: 70%
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Spring Awakening: 25%
Dames at Sea: 1%

A scene from She Loves Me