Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Musical

The Tonys are tomorrow, which means we've hit the last category in our Tony countdown. Every year this is one of the most highly contested awards, with close races every year since Book of Mormon won it. This year is no different, where multiple shows have a solid shot, making it hard to pick a favorite. The nominees are:

An American in Paris
Fun Home
Something Rotten!
The Visit

At least we can remove one of these shows from contention. The Visit has a few dedicated fans, but not nearly enough to truly contend for the Tony. Something Rotten! could have a chance at the award, but it would be an upset, as many critics that reviewed the show felt it should have done an out of town run to polish it more first.

The two shows at the thick of the competition are Fun Home and An American in Paris. After a critically acclaimed run at the Public last year, when Fun Home announced a Broadway transfer it was instantly tabbed as the front runner for the season. However An American in Paris, which many expected to do poorly, received fantastic reviews and is doing great at the box office. It's really anybody's race at this point.

Tony Odds:

Fun Home: 44%
An American in Paris: 42%
Something Rotten!: 13%
The Visit: 1%

Fun Home

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Play

With two days left until the Tonys, we move on to the award for best new play. This is actually one of the easiest to predict categories, so we'll keep it short. The nominees are:

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Disgraced
Hand to God
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2

Curious Incident will almost definitely win this award. It is the favorite to win in 4 other categories, and would take a giant upset to lose the Tony. The best chance after Curious would be Hand to God, hoping to take votes simply because it is an American work, like what Kinky Boots did to Matilda a few years ago. However it isn't likely that it will receive enough support. Disgraced and Wolf Hall are in the same boat, unlikely to win, but still very good shows.

Tony Odds:

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time: 88%
Hand to God: 7%
Wolf Hall Parts 1 & 2: 3%
Disgraced: 2%

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Musical Revival

This award is usually fairly straight forward simply because there aren't usually very many musical revivals. In the 3 of the past 5 years There haven't even been a full four nominees. This year is a little more competitive because of a few well reviewed shows. The nominees are:

The King and I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century

On the Town is the odd man out here. though it got good reviews, they weren't as stellar as the other two, and it has been open for much longer, losing a lot of its buzz. That leaves The King and I and On the Twentieth Century competing for the Tony. Both shows have a lot in common, a Tony nominated veteran actress as a leading lady, an extravagant nature, and excellent reviews being a few. However, if you look at the amount of nominations each show received this year, The King and I received 9 while On the Twentieth Century only received 5, which could be telling for the award race.

The King and I: 51%
On the Twentieth Century: 37%
On the Town: 12%

The Cast of The King and I

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Best Play Revival

There are 4 days left until the Tonys, which means it's time to move on to the big 4 awards. We're going to start with the most up in the air category, Best Play Revival, where only one of the nominees is still open. The nominees are:

The Elephant Man
Skylight
This is Our Youth
You Can't Take It With You

This is essentially a three way race for the Tony (sorry This is Our Youth). Skylight has the advantage of still being open, along with the positive reviews it received. You Can't Take It With You received mostly rave reviews, but closed a long time ago and didn't have a massive blockbuster name, but rather a cast of well respected actors. The Elephant Man closed in fall, but is now running again in London, which may bring back some buzz. It received positive notices, but will likely be helped most by the raves Bradley Cooper received, and the attention he brings to the show. Between these three its really anybody's game.

Tony Odds:

Skylight: 35%
You Can't Take It With You: 33%
The Elephant Man: 31%
This is Our Youth: 1%

Bill Nighy and Carey Mulligan in Skylight

Tony Watch 2015: Award for Lead Actor in a Musical

We're on to our last category, and boy is it a tough one. There's really only one person who we can count out, which leaves this race pretty wide open. The nominees are:

Brian D'Arcy James (Something Rotten!)
Ken Watanabe (The King and I)
Michael Cerveris (Fun Home)
Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris)
Tony Yazbeck (On the Town)

Let's start with the easy one. Ken Watanabe will almost definitely not win this award. Many didn't think he would even get the nomination. With that being said, the next lowest on the ladder is Tony Yazbeck. He is definitely still in the running, but with a show that isn't selling well, and has been open for much longer than the other shows, he doesn't have much buzz going for him.

Robert Fairchild recently beat out Brian D'Arcy James for this year's Drama Desk Award, and for the Outer Critics Circle award, so it appears he has the advantage over James. However, Michael Cerveris wasn't eligible for either of those awards this year, and could be a spoiler for Fairchild in the race. And with a veteran performer like Brian D'Arcy James, you can never really count him out of it either, so this could be a tight race.

Tony Odds:

Michael Cerveris (Fun Home): 33%
Robert Fairchild (An American in Paris): 31%
Brian D'Arcy James (Something Rotten!): 25%
Tony Yazbeck (On the Town): 10%
Ken Watanabe (The King and I): 1%

Michael Cerveris with Sydney Lucas in Fun Home