Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actor in a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our final category before the nominations are announced is leading actor in a musical. In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actor in a Musical:

This category has a few different tiers of performers. The bottom tier is full of young talents with their first big broadway roles (Telly Leung, Austin McKenzie and Cary Tedder) along with Josh Young who has been inconsistent. The next tier is young Broadway actors with some experience under their belts that just haven't quite hit the elite level yet (Josh Segarra and Andrew Keenan-Bolger.)

That leaves six men competing for five spots. Danny Burstein, Leslie Odom Jr. and Lin-Manuel Miranda all seem like they will be nominated, and it would be a big upset if any were left out. The last three will be competing for the last slots, and any of the three could make it. Levi, Walker and Brightman all received very good reviews in positively received shows. Brightman and Walker benefit from having the sole lead in their shows, while Levi shares the spotlight with Laura Benanti, but Levi's show received better roles overall. This category might even end up with a sixth nominee with how close the race looks.

Danny Burstein (Fiddler on the Roof): 90%

Leslie Odom Jr. (Hamilton): 70%

Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton): 65%

Benjamin Walker (American Psycho): 48%

Alex Brightman (School of Rock): 45%

----------------------------------------------

Zachary Levi (She Loves Me): 40%

Andrew Keenan-Bolger (Tuck Everlasting): 15%

Josh Segarra (On Your Feet): 8%

Austin P. McKenzie (Spring Awakening): 5%

Telly Leung (Allegiance): 2%

Cary Tedder (Dames at Sea): 1%

Josh Young (Amazing Grace): 1%

Danny Burstein in Fiddler on the Roof

Tony Watch 2016: Lead Actress in a Musical Nomination Predictions

Our next category, leading actress in a musical, is full of powerhouse women, and just like the last couple years should be a tight battle for the award. In this category there are 5 guaranteed slots, but in the event there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations both or all three of the tied performers will be eligible, meaning up to 7 people could be nominated, though it is unlikely.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:

Like the last couple of years, this category could be close come Tony time. Cynthia Erivo seems to have the lead right now, but Laura Benanti and Jessie Mueller both are right up there with her. All three seem like very likely nominees, and it would be a true upset if any of them missed out on a nomination.

On the other end of the spectrum, Erin Mackey, Eloise Kropp and Sandra Mae Frank all have no chance, giving fine performances in long closed shows. Sarah Charles Lewis and Lea Salonga likely won't make it either, though both received fairly good reviews.

That leaves four women fighting for two spots. Phillipa Soo has one of the most subtle, underrated parts in Hamiton, and though she was widely loved by critics, this is a chance to honor some non-Hamilton performers which could hurt her chances. Carmen Cusack got some rave reviews, but her musical itself didn't do so well, which could be a problem. Ana Villafane got great reviews in her Broadway debut, but in a very packed year she might lose out to some veteran actresses. Lastly we have Audra, who hasn't missed out on a Tony nomination since 2004, being nominated for her last three performances, and winning the last two. Is this the year she misses out?


Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple): 80%
Laura Benanti (She Loves Me): 65%
Jessie Mueller (Waitress): 65%
Phillipa Soo (Hamilton): 42%
Carmen Cusack (Bright Star): 40%
----------------------------------------------
Audra McDonald (Shuffle Along): 35%
Ana Villafane (On Your Feet): 25%
Lea Salonga (Allegiance): 8%
Sarah Charles Lewis (Tuck Everlasting): 3%
Sandra Mae Frank (Spring Awakening): 1%
Eloise Kropp (Dames at Sea): 1%
Erin Mackey (Amazing Grace): 1%

Cynthia Erivo in The Color Purple